Adam Larsson: What Should His New Contract Be Worth?

When the New Jersey Devils selected defenseman Adam Larsson out of Sweden with the 4th overall pick in the 2011 NHL Entry Draft, they were hoping to get a reliable defenseman with top 2 potential. While he didn’t meet the expectations set for him by the organization and fans at first, he was able to turn things around in the last year of his rookie contract. The 2014-2015 NHL season proved to be Adam Larsson‘s breakout year, but you wouldn’t have guessed it from the way he began the season.

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Prior to former Devils Head Coach Peter DeBoer being fired,

struggled and even spent parts of the year as a healthy scratch. After contributing only four points under DeBoer this season,

Larsson thrived under the watch

of

and added 20 points in 46 games. While these numbers may not jump off the page, they are certainly a sign of improvement of what the Devils can expect from him as he develops.

Having shown a good amount of improvement and proving his ability to play on the top defensive pairing with Andy Greene, there’s no doubt Adam Larsson is due for a raise in his next deal. His entry-level deal paid him $900,000 a year, but with his recent progress in his development he is surely worth more than his first contract. Larsson’s exact value is uncertain due to his early lack of development which could make the Devils and GM Lou Lamoriello hesitant to give him a large contract. While this is a possibility, I believe Lamoriello has shown they like what Larsson has to offer and will give him a respectable contract this off-season.

It’s hard to compare Adam Larsson to other players in terms of productivity since he only started to breakout this season. However, if we look at where his numbers rank him amongst defenseman in the NHL this year we see that his 24 points resulted in him finishing tied for 63rd. While ranking T-63 amongst defensemen in terms of points sound bad, consider the notable players who finished around him. Defensemen like Toronto’s Jake Gardiner (24 pts), Nashville’s Seth Jones (27 pts) and Winnipeg’s Tyler Myers (28 pts) all finished close to Larsson in terms of points.

Mar 14, 2015; Uniondale, NY, USA; Montreal Canadiens center Alex Galchenyuk (27) is checked by New York Islanders defenseman Travis Hamonic (3) during the game at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum. The Canadiens defeated the Islanders 3-1. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

I believe the Devils have two options for a new Adam Larsson contract. They could either offer him a 2-year “prove it” deal where he gets around $2.5-$3 million a season to prove he can keep developing. Or they can put their faith in him by offering a 4 or 5 year deal similar to the Islanders Travis Hamonic deal in 2013. Hamonic’s deal was a 7-year deal worth $27 million and was a smart move by the Islanders as it keeps his cap hit reasonable as the cap is expected to go up over the years. If the Devils were to sign Larsson to a contract similar to Hamonic’s, I would say it is a safe bet to think it could be a 5-year deal worth around $24 million.

The Devils would be able to structure the new contract to increase in cap hit over time and pay Adam Larsson for the anticipated production and experience. Larsson has only played in 192 games over his first four years in New Jersey (season high is 65), so he still has plenty of room to grow in a full NHL season. It will be on Lamoriello to bring in a head coach who won’t play games with Larsson and risk hindering his development like Peter DeBoer did.

In the 5-year deal I proposed for Adam Larsson, I would pan out the $22.5 million starting at $3.5 million in year 1 and then increasing $500k each year of the 5-year deal. This would put Larsson on track to finish the contract at age 27 with a $5.5 million cap hit. This is based on the projection of him emerging as one of the Devils top-2 defensemen and increasing his production over the next 5 seasons.

What do you think Adam Larsson is worth? Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments section below and make sure to keep checking the site for all things Devils related this off-season!

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