New Jersey Devils Should Have Made 2013-2014 Playoffs
The New Jersey Devils played well enough in 2013-2014 to make the postseason, but a few mistakes were enough to derail those hopes and set up the current 4 year drought.
The New Jersey Devils are looking to break a 4-year playoff drought this upcoming season. Despite having missed it the past four years, they have been in the mix. Specifically, the 2013-2014 season saw them put up a playoff worthy performance for most of the season, only for them to fall short by 5 points. In a logistic regression model predicting playoff probability, that Devils team missing the playoffs was the second biggest outlier of the past 10 years. There were a few mistakes that enabled the team to miss the playoffs, when perhaps they had the talent to get in as at least a wild card team.
The Devils did a lot right that season. They finished third in the league in Corsi percentage, which is generally a strong predictor of wins. The Devils excelled in puck possession, which allowed them to have a strong control of games and should have amounted to more wins. The Devils still struggled to get shots and goals, but they were able to limit teams to even fewer shots than they had, which allowed them to have control of a lot of games. The Devils also led the league in Penalty Kill percentage, and they were exceptional in that category. The Devils logged an 86.36 PK percentage, 1.7 standard deviations above average. They also had an above average Powerplay output, which allowed them to get solid opportunities for goals despite not having the most talented offense.
The Devils showed flashes of strong goaltending in 2013-2014, specifically from newly acquired Cory Schneider. Schneider was 14th in the NHL with a 92.1 save percentage, and finished the season with a 1.97 goals against average, good for third in the league. However, the team finished the season slightly below average overall in save percentage. That is due to the decision to start Martin Brodeur 39 games, which likely played a significant part in them missing the playoffs. Brodeur just did not bring what he had in the past, finishing with a lackluster 90.1 save percentage and 2.51 goals against average. Perhaps the team may have gotten a few more wins putting production ahead of sentimentality and playing Cory Schenider the amount of games his talent warranted.
The biggest frustration that came with that 2013-2014 team was their performance in overtime, and specifically shootout. The Devils finished the season with 18 overtime losses, 8 more than the league average. That number was highlighted by their 0-13 shootout record, which seems incredibly unlucky considering shootouts are often considered random events where teams have close to a 50 percent chance to win. That struggle was due to a combination of luck and skill. Although you would expect close to 50 percent success in shootouts, the Devils did not have many creative one-on-one scorers, which meant that they would be expected to be a somewhat subpar in shootouts. Once the losses began piling up, it not only hurt the team mentally, but also gave other teams a mental boost. When the games would get tough, opponents would take solace in the idea that if they can just hold on to overtime, their chances of getting two points would be very high. The inability to convert in an event that is expected to be about a 50 percent chance of success for an average team was a huge part in the Devils missing the playoffs that year. If they had won 5 out of 13 shootouts, a number that is still bad, they would have made the playoffs. Because they were significantly worse than bad that year, they missed it.
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The Devils did a lot right in 2013-2014, and they played well enough overall to warrant a playoff spot. However, questionable coaching decisions and a huge stroke of bad luck led to them narrowly missing out, and the team still has not been back to the postseason since losing in Los Angeles in game 6 of the 2012 finals.