New Jersey Devils: How Likely Will These Players Make This Team?

The New Jersey Devils are in evaluation mode with their season officially ending in a few weeks. Who has earned a spot on next year’s team, and who will be playing hockey elsewhere?

Over the past few weeks, the New Jersey Devils were missing just about every star player on the roster due to injury. With just a handful of games left, and the entire team looking like they’re from Binghamton, this was a great opportunity for players that would usually be in the owner’s box or in the minors this time of the year to show what they can really do.

There’s no chance that most of these players make the main roster next season. Even if the Devils sign nobody, the emergence of some prospects and the myriad of players returning from injury sends most of them back to the AHL for a season. However, the Devils always seem to leave one spot undetermined going into training camp. It seems to be Ray Shero’s ideal situation to keep that door open so they can reward a player who earned his spot.

That spent went to John Quenneville this season out of camp, and it went to Brian Gibbons and Jesper Bratt the season before. Sometimes that line of thinking works out, and sometimes it doesn’t. However, with so many players getting a shot to make their NHL debut over the past few weeks, this gives Shero and head coach John Hynes plenty of players to choose from.

Some players in the lineup are close to guaranteed to make it, while others have little to no chance to be on next year’s team.

We will give every player that’s played games this season a percentage chance they will be on the Opening Night roster to start the 2019-20 season. We will them put them in descending order from most likely to least likely. Be prepared to see the bottom of the barrel.

To be clear, this is the percentage this player will be on the New Jersey Devils next October. Binghamton doesn’t count, but being a healthy scratch does count. We will take into effect likelihood this players gets traded, signed or just doesn’t make the team. Everything is on the table here. Injuries will not be considered into the percentage, because technically that player is still on the roster.

Nico Hischier 99.9999999%

There’s almost nothing that would get Ray Shero to trade away Nico Hischier. Even if Nico tells Ray he wants nothing to do with signing an extension this offseason, he still has a full year on his rookie deal. Shero is not trading away the future of this franchise unless the other team overpays. Even if, say, Vancouver offered Elias Petterson, Shero still opts to keep Nico in New Jersey.

Mackenzie Blackwood 99%

This might seem high for Mackenzie Blackwood, being the second most likely player on the entire time. Remember, injury is not taken into account here. Blackwood is the future of the goaltender position. Even if he doesn’t win the starting gig coming out of training camp, the Devils are going to give him all his opportunities on the NHL level. They are also not trading him now. He’s the only player they have in the system that’s shown the ability to steal the net on a nightly basis.

Jesper Bratt 95%

Jesper Bratt is the type of player Shero is going to get 100 calls about in the offseason. They see how well he’s playing at such a young age, then they realize Shero only needed to use a 6th-round pick to get him. They will look to get a steal in acquiring Bratt before he really explodes, but Shero won’t budge. The only way this could happen is if Shero moves him in a monster trade (cough, cough, Patrik Laine).

Kyle Palmieri 90%

Kyle Palmieri has one of the most affordable contracts in the NHL. Think about this, the Philadelphia Flyers are paying James van Riemsdyk $7 million per season to score 26 goals and record 18 assists. Palmieri has slightly better numbers for $4.3 million. His contract is such a steal, Shero will be wary of ever trading it away, especially while he’s still in his prime.

Andy Greene 90%

There was a possibility that the Devils would have traded Andy Greene at the trade deadline, but it’s much less likely in the offseason. Teams tend to overpay for that “one final piece” towards the end of the season. Before they go into the season, a player like Greene is more valuable to the Devils than he would be to other teams. He gets some flack, but if he was just able to play a third-line role that kills penalties at an elite level, then he would still be a great asset for this team. Also, he’s the captain and trading the captain shakes a locker room.

Travis Zajac 90%

Travis Zajac had a nice bounce-back season this year. Not as many people are screaming from the mountain tops to call for Zajac to be traded back to Lou Lamoriello and the New York Islanders or his hometown Winnipeg Jets. This season, he won back the affection of New Jersey Devils fans. He’s third on the team in points, plays a dynamite penalty killing role, and is a major leader in this locker room. If he can continue to score 15-20 goals for the remainder of his contract, things won’t look so bad.

Blake Coleman 90%

Blake Coleman emerged as one of the most clutch Devils on the roster. He does a little bit of everything. He scored an amazing shootout goal against the Arizona Coyotes. He blocks shots during the penalty kill, and takes them the other way. He keeps goals out of the net, and found his scoring stroke this season. There’s zero reason the Devils should trade Coleman, unless it’s to bring another very young superstar here.

Taylor Hall 85%

This one probably seemed like the elephant in the room of the last slide. What’s going to happen with Taylor Hall this offseason? That’s the biggest storyline by far. Will Hall re-sign an extension? Both Hall and Shero say they look forward to working out a deal, but anything can happen when money is involved. If a deal doesn’t happen, there’s still a chance the Devils try to keep Hall during the season. It’s still slightly a chance they trade him to get assets for him before he leaves.

Cory Schneider 85%

Two months ago, Schneider might be 50 or 60 percent. Finally showing he could be an NHL caliber goaltender means the world to this team. He was a legitimate buyout candidate this offseason if he couldn’t get it together. He got it together, and rocketed up this list. He still might be bought out, but that’s much more likely to happen in the 2020 offseason where the cap hit will last two years less. For now, it’s more than likely he will be in a 50/50 split with Blackwood.

Pavel Zacha 85%

Pavel Zacha is in a contract year, and he wasn’t great. He was much better in the second half of the season. He’s had 11 points since January 1st. That’s not anything to go home about. Zacha needs to be much better, but he’s a restricted free agent. Shero isn’t letting him go for free, and he’s also no trading him when his value is still low and he’s finally finding a somewhat scoring touch. He needs to do more, but he’s still just 21 years old.

Damon Severson 85%

Damon Severson has been a baller this season. He’s put himself in the Sami Vatanen conversation as best defenseman on the team. He took his game to another level, and is a great two-way player. He took over Will Butcher‘s spot on the top powerplay unit. He’s scored as many goals as Taylor Hall (in twice as many games, but still), and he’s been remarkably healthy. He was a trade candidate last season, but this year he would cost a fortune.

Will Butcher 80%

Speaking of Butcher, he’s slightly further down on this list than Severson. That extra five percent is due to his contract expiring and Severson being signed for four more seasons. Still, Butcher has been playing better as of late, and his woes this year were probably just the dreaded sophomore slump. He’s still a future second-pairing defenseman on a team that’s starting to turn around this unit. With Ty Smith coming next season, his spot is slightly in question, but this team wants as much talent as possible, especially on D.

Miles Wood 75%

Miles Wood seemed to take a long time to get into the groove of things after missing most of training camp in a contract negotiation. Who knows the taste that put into Shero’s mouth. It’s probably fine, but there’s a slight chance he could use Wood as a trade chip this offseason. Wood is an intriguing player to other teams because of his speed and tenacity. A team might be willing to pay more than the Devils think he’s worth. He’s still more likely to be on the Opening Night lineup than not.

Steve Santini 75%

This one may surprise you. Steve Santini has been okay at best since slotting into the lineup, but the Devils always love carrying at least seven defensemen, sometimes eight, with them at all times. Santini seems like the right guy to make that extra defenseman. He’s young enough that he provides a jolt to the lineup, but has enough experience to know where he needs to be. He doesn’t always get to that spot, but he knows where it is. The Devils will likely keep him on the roster, especially since he’s on a one-way deal next season.

Sami Vatanen 75%

Last season, people were putting the Sami Vatanen and Taylor Hall negotiations in the same breath. Fans believed Vatanen was in for a big payday, but his play this season regressed a little bit, and now some fans quit on him. He’s still a very good defenseman, and can be on a top line with a player in the right situation. He’s not a number-one defenseman in this league, but when called upon last season he stepped up. Who knows what he’s looking for in a contract, but if negotiations don’t go Shero’s way, he could look to offload him before the season.

Connor Carrick 45%

Connor Carrick has been very good since he was an extra piece in the trade sending Ben Lovejoy to the Dallas Stars. He’s been able to get his shots on net, and hasn’t been a total disaster in his own end. He’s an arbitration eligible defenseman at the end of the season. The Devils once again have control over his future. They’d be able to decide what to do with him, but there just might not be room to keep him. It’s a big decision this offseason.

Stefan Noesen 45%

Stefan Noesen was only given a one-year deal this offseason, and he’s a restricted free agent at the end of the season, but he did not step up. Noesen only played 36 games and scored just three times. He was an important part of this team last season, but next season he might just be taking the spot of a young player who has a higher ceiling.

Michael McLeod 45%

Michael McLeod is an interesting case. He was the Devils 1st-round pick back in 2016. He had an amazing season immediately after, carrying the Mississauga Steelheads to the OHL Finals. He never really grew from that season. In fact, some would say he regressed. He’s been playing much better over the last few games, but he desperately needs to score. If he can finally score that first goal of his career, it will provide some help for his argument to make next year’s team. As of right now, his chances are under 50%.

Nathan Bastian 40%

Nathan Bastian, on the other hand, looked like he was ready for the bright lights of the NHL. He was amazing in a very short sample size. Speaking of size, he’s 6’4. That’s something the Devils could use in their forward group. He can stand in front of the net and put rebounds into the net. Unfortunately, he got hurt. He’s only played four games, and the Devils will want him to start the year in the minors.

Brett Seney 40%

Brett Seney was given a 50-game audition to show that he deserved a spot on the NHL roster. For a while, he was given every chance to succeed. He was fine, but not nearly good enough to stick around. That showed when the Devils chose to send him down to the minors despite dealing with a dozen injuries. He needs to prove himself again before the Devils give him a spot on this roster.

Egor Yakovlev 35%

Many of us called for months to give Egor Yakovlev a chance to prove himself on this defense. He had offensive upside and just needed to learn how to communicate on the ice. He was trying to learn the North American game while also trying to listen to a team full of players who spoke another language. He’s been finally given a chance to have a steady spot in the lineup, but it comes too late. He’s an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season, and the Devils have other defensemen to play in that spot.

John Quenneville 35%

My goodness, this has been a fall from grace. John Quenneville made the Devils out of camp to start this season. Quenneville just didn’t play well, he couldn’t light the lamp, and when he finally did, he got hurt. He’s getting to his last shot before time runs out with this franchise. He’s got talent, just something is missing.

Nick Lappin 25%

Nick Lappin was a 30-goal scorer in the AHL last season. This season, he took multiple steps back. He didn’t show anything during his recent call up, and he even produced much worse stats with Binghamton. He’s a group-six free agent, and the Devils will likely allow him to sign with another team. If not, they will sign him to play in the AHL with some upside.

Ryan Murphy 25%

Ryan Murphy is an interesting case. He was given one game with the NHL Devils. In that one game, he did have an assist and looked really good. For some reason, Hynes and Shero decided to send him down to the minors afterwards. Shero traded for him straight up in the Michael Kapla deal. It was a small price to pay for a former 1st-round pick, but he’s 25 years old and hasn’t done enough in the minors to make us believe he’s on his way.

Blake Pietila 15%

Blake Pietila was given an extended look, but he just didn’t show much to make us believe he’s a future member of this franchise. He’s already 26 years old and had one point in 19 NHL games. He’s a good AHL player, but it isn’t translating to the big leagues.

Drew Stafford 15%

To be fair, we probably would have given Drew Stafford the same percentage at the end of last season to return for another year, yet here we are. He hasn’t even been that bad. He didn’t have that crazy surge to start like he did last season, but he has been good in the shootout and hasn’t been awful at 5v5. Still, he’s on the wrong side of 30. He may come back, but the percentages are quite low.

Josh Jacobs 10%

Josh Jacobs recently made his NHL debut, and he looked fine. He’s been decent in the AHL this season, but he’s not ready for the NHL lights. The AHL defense as a whole has been pretty terrible. Jacobs is the best of a bad bunch. He has upside, but he has a long way to go to hit it.

Eric Gryba 10%

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Eric Gryba was Ray Shero’s “big signing” last offseason. He came over from the Edmonton Oilers to play that eighth defenseman/veteran AHLer role. He did just fine in that role, but the second the Devils needed him in the NHL lineup, things went south. Gryba just isn’t an NHL defenseman at this point in his career.

Kurtis Gabriel 5%

Kurtis Gabriel seems like a really nice guy and he’s a team player, but the Devils have no room for a guy who plays the goon role. He fights much more than he scores, he puts the Devils a man down way too often, and he gets distracted by physical play. It’s unfortunate, because when he doesn’t play like that he actually shows some decent skills, but he reverts back to his old ways too often. The Devils will almost certainly move on.

Brandon Gignac 2%

Brandon Gignac was given a one-game tryout a few weeks ago, but it was clear he needs some work. He needs so much work, it will take more than just an offseason to fix. He has upside, but it will take a lot to get him there.

Colton White 2%

Not sure if you noticed, but there are a lot of defensemen on this list. Just about every single one of them is signed or a restricted free agent under team control. There are just too many for Colton White to make it onto the roster on Opening Night. He will get another year in Binghamton to get better. He’s just 21 years old, so he has plenty of time to blossom.

Eric Tangradi 1%

Eric Tangradi was signed to be an AHL player, and he should be happy to get a chance in the NHL this season. He’ll have little to no chance to break the lineup next season. Maybe they bring him back to the AHL. He was a nice presence, but that’s it.