Pucks and Pitchforks
Fansided

New Jersey Devils Begin To Address Top Priority With Hall Trade

By David Iwanowski

November 14, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Edmonton Oilers left wing Taylor Hall (4) celebrates his goal scored against Los Angeles Kings in the third period at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
November 14, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Edmonton Oilers left wing Taylor Hall (4) celebrates his goal scored against Los Angeles Kings in the third period at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports /
facebooktwitterreddit

When it comes to making the leap into a playoff team for the first team since 2011-2012, the New Jersey Devils know exactly where to start: improving the offense.

It was very clear the Devils were offensively challenged last season, and in order to become a playoff team, they will need to be at least competent offensively. The Devils were last in the league in goals scored and below average by a little over two standard deviations. However, it is not enough to get guys who can put the puck in the net- the Devils need playmakers who can create scoring opportunities for their teammates. The Devils finished the league with the fewest shots in the league, 262 below the next team on the list, and were over 3 and a quarter standard deviations below average.

They are off to a good start on improving in these areas, as it was announced Wednesday they traded defenseman Adam Larsson for forward Taylor Hall.

The team had two 30 goal scorers in Adam Henrique and Kyle Palmieri, and a third player in Mike Cammalleri who was on pace for nearly 28 goals if he stayed healthy. They had guys who could finish scoring chances, but they did not have the scoring chances in the first place. The Devils were actually a league average team in shooting percentage, meaning they were good enough at converting the few opportunities they had.

Hall is 24 years old, and in 2015-2016 racked up 26 goals and 39 assists. He would have placed third on the team in goals, first in assists, first in points, and first in shots by far. In Hall, they have a player who can score goals, but more importantly, can create scoring chances for his teammates as well as himself.

Hall racked up a Fenwick percentage of 52.5 percent, which was higher than that of every Devils forward last season except Jacob Josefson. For comparison, league average is 50 percent, the Devils team average was 46.6 percent, and the two highest scorers on the team had ratings of below 47 percent. Needless to say Hall provides a big upgrade in that important statistic.

It is unclear how much Hall alone, along with interior development, will improve the team, so the Devils will likely want to keep looking for further upgrades.

According to a regression analysis predicting wins based on last season’s stats, if the Devils were able to increase their shots total to be 100 shots below average (which would be increasing their total by 335 shots, or about 4 per game) holding other factors constant, they would expect to see their win total increase by nearly 6 wins. A 6 win increase would have added 12 points and placed them in the playoffs. If they were league average in shots, they would look to be about 7 wins better than last season.

Next: Devils will miss Adam Larsson, but Taylor Hall is worth it

It may be a tough task for the franchise to be able to add players ready to contribute next season, but all they need to do is go from brutal to regular bad in terms of scoring opportunities and they would be competitive for a playoff spot.

If the addition of Hall and quality play from young prospects with potential such as Pavel Zacha and John Quenneville can make the offense average, then the Devils should expect to make the playoffs, especially with the development of their young defensive core.

Apr 9, 2016; Newark, NJ, USA; New Jersey Devils left wing Patrik Elias (26) celebrates his goal against the Toronto Maple Leafs during the third period at Prudential Center. The Devils defeated the Maple Leafs 5-1. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 9, 2016; Newark, NJ, USA; New Jersey Devils left wing Patrik Elias (26) celebrates his goal against the Toronto Maple Leafs during the third period at Prudential Center. The Devils defeated the Maple Leafs 5-1. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports /

The team may opt to chase free agents with exceptional abilities to set up scoring chances for their teammates, such as Kyle Okposo or Mikkel Boedker. Both players racked up more assists than anyone on the Devils.

The Devils have some good young talent developing, and appear primed to have another good defensive season with the young core on defense and star goalie Cory Schneider. However, they should not be satisfied with this one trade, and should continue to look for offensive upgrades.

If they can add enough creators who can increase the chances for the team to score, the Devils have a solid shot at making the playoffs for the first time in 5 years. Trading for Taylor Hall was a good start, and now it’s time to continue adding to the offense to ensure that the scoring chances reach at least a near-average level.

Home/Free Agency