New Jersey Devils: 1st Defensive Pair Player and Point Projections
We’re down to our final two projections. This is what to expect from the New Jersey Devils top defensive line. Here we look at links to everything we’ve covered so far can be found here:
1st Defensive Pair
Andy Greene 3 goals, 12 assists
Andy Greene had a down year for the New Jersey Devils last year. However, I really don’t think it was as bad as people thought. He played 66 games, netting 4 goals and 9 assists, and finished at -16. But to truly understand how difficult of a year he had, you have to look at some other numbers.
An issue I addressed with Ben Lovejoy is one of the same issues that Greene had. He started in the defensive zone 64.8% of the time. Only one defenseman, Ben Lovejoy, had a higher defensive zone start percentage.
In Rob Vollman’s book, “Hockey Abstract”, he has charts for each team showing player usage with how well they did in that usage (I strongly suggest purchasing his book. It’s a really good read and gives some incredible breakdowns). Not only did Greene start in the defensive zone almost 65% of the time but he was constantly facing the other teams top players.
Greene is 34, and he’s certainly not Andrei Markov. It was about time he started showing signs of regression and he certainly did. However, he still performed well given the fact that he was relied on to constantly face the toughest players in the toughest situations.
The Devils defense missed out on signing Kevin Shattenkirk but that doesn’t mean they didn’t improve. With a more balanced lineup, look for Greene to get more favorable usage. His play should level out. He’s still an important player and a leader on this team and will likely stay in the top two until one of the younger players show they’re ready.
Damon Severson 5 goals, 33 assists
The Devils and Damon Severson finally came to agreement, signing a six-year contract with an AAV just over $4.1 million. Severson was one of the lone bright spots last year for New Jersey. He’s not the best defensive defenseman, but he’s a good puck mover. He will continue to put up good offensive numbers.
Severson had three goals and 28 assists with a -31. That stat line starts out very well and ends terribly. I still don’t think +/- is a fair stat to evaluate a single player as it’s more of a team stat. What I think we need to look at with Severson is that he can play significant minutes (ATOI 20:21 last year), he has good possession numbers (CF% of 50), and he is steadily increasing his shot generation (125 last year).
Severson is a solid top 4 defenseman that the Devils have locked up for 6 years. He’ll be a mainstay in this lineup for years to come. That’s a good thing for the Devils.
With all of that said, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the Devils pair Severson with John Moore or Will Butcher. They could potentially create a very talented offensive pair and continue to use Andy Greene in a shut down role.
Summary
The Devils defense still needs improvement but barring a major trade they’re not going to find help this year. It’s more likely that Ray Shero will address any needs in the next offseason and allow the younger defenseman plenty of opportunity to show themselves this year.
With only minor improvements defensively we should only expect boost to this groups performance. With that said, I think the Devils addressed their needs defensively by improving the offense. Obviously, the less time spent in your defensive zone the better. Just from re-watching last season’s games I noticed a theme of turnovers in the defensive zone leading to goals.
The improved Devils offense should alleviate some of the pressure the defense has been feeling. Look for minor defensive improvement and major offensive improvement. And of course, the biggest factor on the ice for the Devils is Cory Schneider.