New Jersey Devils: Nico Hischier Establishes Himself in Calder Race

A little while ago I took a look at how New Jersey Devils rookie Nico Hischer stacked up against previous first overall picks. Now lets take a look at how Nico stacks up against fellow rookies so far this year.

Let’s start with the fact that only two players from the 2017 NHL Draft that stayed with their NHL clubs past the nine game mark. Nico Hischier and 2nd overall pick Nolan Patrick. Patrick suffered an injury and missed a few games, but has only posted two goals and five assists through 28 games. Hischier on the other hand has 23 points in his 36 games.

When it comes to the Calder Race there are three established rookies who are getting most of the recognition. Mathew Barzal of the Islanders, Brock Boeser of the Canucks, and Charlie McAvoy of the Bruins. All three are deservedly getting a ton of praise.

Using all strength numbers, Barzal is likely the Calder frontrunner right now. However, when you eliminate power play time and strictly look at 5v5 numbers the gap is much closer than you may think.

These 5v5 numbers are from Corsica Hockey.

There are a couple major takeaways from this chart. Nico is 3^rd when it comes to rookies with seven even strength goals, but is tied for 1^st with 9 primary assists. His 5v5 Point per 60 rate is 3^rd as well but again if you factor in strictly primary points he’s actually 2^nd.

Hischier actually leads this rookie group in one particular stat. ixGF/60, or individual expected goals for per 60. Essentially, Hischier is expected to generate close to a goal every 60 minutes.

Finally we’ll take a look at some Devils numbers from Matt Barlowe. Barlowe used his xG model and compared it to actual goal totals. You can check out his analytics account on twitter here.

As you can see Hischier’s xG total is over nine, while his actual 5v5 goal count is only seven. This is good and bad. Noone’s really complaining about Hischier’s current production, but with a little more puck luck the expectation is that Hischier should see his goal total climb.

At 5v5, Hischier is performing just as well as every other rookie, if not better.

This also brings up another issue I’ve noticed this year. Coach John Hynes has shown plenty of trust in Hischier in letting him essentially run the 2^nd powerplay unit, but one has to wonder if it would benefit Hischier and the team if he were moved to the first unit. It’s clear he’s one of the Devils best offensive weapons. Why not give him more guaranteed PP time?

If you’re still questioning Nico’s impact for the Devils, just take a look at these 5v5 heatmaps for the Devils with Hischier and without Hischier. These are from Micach McCourdy at Hockey Viz, which is one of my favorite tools when it comes to evaluating the Devils. This is your 18 year old 1^st line center folks.

Next: New Jersey Devils: Cory Schneider Back to Being a Top 5 NHL Goalie

Hischier may not be getting a ton of recognition as a Calder Trophy candidate, but its about time he does.