New Jersey Devils: Where Does History Suggest Nico Hischier’s Career Is Headed?
The Outperformers
Disclaimer
Powerplay work inflated all of these players’ stats. However, a superstar’s game is not complete until they learn to dominate on the powerplay. Nico Hischier only scored 1 powerplay goal and 5 powerplay assists, whereas these players generally collected a significant portion of their points on the powerplay. Granted, it is easier to score on the powerplay, but you have to first earn the right to play on the powerplay and then score on the powerplay. And besides, a goal is a goal is a goal. Therefore, I will not distinguish between even-strength and powerplay production.
(Photo by Scott Cunningham/NHLI via Getty Images)
Ilya Kovalchuk
Kovalchuk, who later in his career played for (and then ditched) the Devils, started off his dazzling career with a bang. Despite missing 17 matches to a shoulder injury, Kovalchuk racked up 29 goals and 22 assists, good for a 37 goal, 28 assist full-season pace. Kovalchuk played for 12 years in the NHL before hopping to Russia, averaging 42 goals and 40 helpers per 82 games.
(Photo by Joe Sargent/NHLI via Getty Images)
Alex Ovechkin
From the very beginning, it was clear that Alex Ovechkin was something special. The Russian superstar tallied 52 goals and 54 assists in his first campaign. Ovechkin foreshadowed his powerplay prowess with 21(!) powerplay goals and 31 powerplay assists, in addition to shouldering heavy minutes from day one with 21:37 mean TOI (Hischier averaged 16:19 TOI). Ovechkin finished sixth in Hart Trophy voting that go-round and has gone on to claim the Hart Trophy (awarded to the most valuable player) three times already in his illustrious career. To complement the three Hart Trophies are seven Maurice Richard Trophies (given to the top goal-scorer), including one this past year, and a Stanley Cup ring. Ovechkin averages 50 goals and 37 assists per 82 contests. Enough said.
(Photo by Joe Sargent/NHLI via Getty Images)
Sidney Crosby
While Alex Ovechkin may have Crosby beat in terms of individual accomplishments, Crosby captained the Penguins to three Stanley Cups. He also managed an astounding 39 goals and 61 assists in his opening season. For comparison, Taylor Hall buried 39 goals and 54 assists when he won the Hart Trophy this year (albeit in 5 fewer games than Crosby). Sidney Crosby has since cemented his legacy as one of the top players ever, securing two Hart Trophies, two Art Ross Trophies (presented to the top point-scorer), two Conn Smythes (granted to the playoff MVP), and two Maurice Richard Trophies. If Hischier can come close to Crosby’s excellence, the Devils will be beyond thrilled.
(Photo by Jeff Vinnick/NHLI via Getty Images)
Connor McDavid
Labeled the best prospect since Sidney Crosby, McDavid battled injuries in his rookie season, playing just 45 matches, but still flashed his out-of-this-world potential. McDavid notched 16 goals and 32 assists, good for a 29 goal, 58 assist pace. McDavid followed that up with 71 goals and 137 helpers in his next two campaigns, landing a Hart Trophy, two Art Ross Trophies, and two Ted Lindsay Awards (given to the player voted most outstanding by his peers).
(Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Auston Matthews
Auston Matthews notched 40 goals and 29 assists as a rookie, including a four-goal debut. A center with a big frame and soft hands, Matthews’ has a blindingly bright career in front of him, and appears well on his way towards becoming a top-three talent in the NHL.
The Similar Performers
(Photo by Rich Lam/Getty Images)
Rick Nash
‘Nasher’ kicked off his rock-solid career with 17 goals and 22 assists in 74 games (as a reminder, Hischier posted 20 goals and 32 assists in 82 games) and averaged 13:57 TOI (Hischier averaged 16:19). Nash proceeded to hammer home 38 goals and 31 assists every 82 games over the next 11 years but played only 788 of a possible 902 contests. However, Nash’s output would tail off as he hit his 30s, and he is now pondering retirement.
(Photo by Len Redkoles/NHLI via Getty Images)
Patrick Kane
Patrick Kane totaled 21 goals and 51 assists as a newcomer while playing 18:22 a night. Kane has been a superstar ever since, averaging 31 goals and 49 assists per 82 contests, including a 2015-2016 season in which he netted 46 goals and 60 assists en route to a Hart Trophy, Art Ross Trophy, and Ted Lindsay Award. Bake in Kane’s three Stanley Cups and 2013 Conn Smythe Trophy, not to mention Kane’s Cup-winning goal in 2010, and Kane has enjoyed quite the glamorous career.
(Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images)
Steven Stamkos
Stamkos’ inaugural season was relatively quiet as he put home just 23 goals and 23 assists and averaged 14:56 TOI in 79 games. He then blew the lid off with four explosive seasons, producing a blistering 52 goals and 43 helpers per 82 matches. Stamkos played every game in those four go-rounds and seemed on track to become one of the greatest players of all-time, but the injury bug bit hard. He has since played only 291 of a possible 410 contests, though he continues to post elite production… when healthy.
(Photo by Mike Stobe/NHLI via Getty Images)
John Tavares
Tavares’ freshman campaign included 24 goals and 30 assists in 18:00 TOI, which by Tavares’ hefty standards, was quite modest indeed. Tavares has since recorded 35 goals and 45 assists every 82 games. Additionally, Tavares has been a consistent nightly presence, missing only 35 games in his entire career.
(Photo by Andy Marlin/NHLI via Getty Images)
Taylor Hall
Nico Hischier’s linemate jumped into the NHL with 22 goals and 20 assists in 65 matches for an 82-game pace of 28 goals and 25 assists. Though hampered by poor linemates and franchise decisions in Edmonton, Taylor Hall averages 30 goals and 44 assists every 82 games, including a stunning, Hart Trophy-winning 2017-2018 performance.
(Photo by Andy Devlin/NHLI via Getty Images)
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Nugent-Hopkins has certainly flashed the skills which made him the No. 1 overall pick, but thus far, he has underwhelmed when he has managed to make it onto the ice. Nugent-Hopkins kick-started his career with 18 goals and 34 assists in 64 matches, but unfortunately, his missed time would foreshadow a running theme for Nugent-Hopkins. Nugent-Hopkins, who just completed his 7th circuit, has already missed what equates to a full season due to injury. When healthy, Nugent-Hopkins has summed an uninspiring 21 goals and 34 assists every 82 games. Solid production for a regular NHLer, but obviously much more is expected of a top-overall pick.
(Photo by Michael Martin/NHLI via Getty Images)
Nail Yakupov
Widely considered one of the biggest busts in NHL history, Yakupov excited as a rookie. In the lockout-shortened 2012-2013 season, Yakupov played each contest and scored 17 goals with 14 assists in 14:34 of ice time per game. Extrapolated over 82 games, this amounts to 29 goals and 24 helpers. However, there were clear signs of a shaky foundation, chief among them an unsustainable 21% shot percentage and a horrid 42.9% Corsi. Indeed, Yakupov’s career spiraled, as he scored just 45 goals over the next five seasons and eventually left the NHL for the KHL. Hischier, on the other hand, possessed an extremely sustainable 11.1% shot percentage this past season.
(Photo by Michael Martin/NHLI via Getty Images)
Nathan MacKinnon
The Hart Trophy runner-up to Taylor Hall, Nathan MacKinnon tallied 24 goals and 39 assists in his first season. MacKinnon’s production tanked for the next few campaigns collecting just 19 goals and 35 assists per 82 games. MacKinnon flipped the script in 2017-2018, though, with a 39 goal, 58 assist explosion (and all that in just 74 matches).
(Photo by Bruce Bennett Studios/Getty Images)
Joe Thornton
Jumbo Joe commenced his career with a whimper, netting just 3 goals and 4 assists in 55 games. While Thornton never grew into an elite goal scorer, aggregating just 22 goals every 82 contests, he piled up the assists, dishing 57 assists per full season. Thornton doled out an astounding 96 assists in his Hart Trophy and Art Ross Trophy-winning 2005-2006 season. Overall, Joe Thornton was a top-player for close to two decades.
Dave Sanford/Getty Images/NHLI
Patrik Stefan
The first-ever draft selection of the Atlanta Thrashers, Patrick Stefan was meant to propel the Thrashers to relevancy. Instead, Stefan mustered just 5 goals and 20 assists in his 72-game freshman campaign. Unfortunately for Stefan, he could never up his production, leaving the NHL after seven disappointing circuits in which he accumulated 11 goals and 22 assists per 82 contests. The closest Stefan ever got to collecting hardware was a 44th placing in the Lady Byng (awarded to the most gentlemanly player) race in 2002-2003. His most memorable moment? A historic botched empty-net in his final NHL season.
(Photo by Travis Golby/NHLI via Getty Images)
Vincent Lecavalier
Vinny Lecavalier began his career with an unspectacular 13 goals and 15 assists, playing all 82 games but just 13:40 a night. Lecavalier, however, was spectacular in his prime from age 22-28, leading the Lightning to a Stanley Cup victory, winning a Maurice Richard trophy, and enjoying 82-game averages of 38 goals and 45 helpers while missing 11 matches total. Lecavalier experienced a decade of near-elite production, but he ultimately was never able to become a top-level player, only once finishing better than 17th in Hart Trophy voting. Injuries struck in Lecavalier’s early 30s, prematurely ending Lecavalier’s consistently-good career.
What Does This All Mean For Nico?
Because Hischier followed McDavid and Matthews, two generational talents, many were disappointed by Hischier’s rookie production. Granted, it is unlikely that Hischier ever develops into an Ovechkin, Crosby, McDavid, or Matthews. But his inaugural season, the entire duration of which Hischier battled hand issues, was right in line with superstars like Steven Stamkos, Rick Nash, Taylor Hall, and Nathan MacKinnon. Hischier may not be a generational talent, but he is certainly no Patrik Stefan or Nail Yakupov. If we use history as a guide, Hischier seems on the path to superstardom.
All statistics courtesy of Hockey Reference unless otherwise noted.