New Jersey Devils and the Curious Case of Steven Santini

The New Jersey Devils officially locked the 23-year-old RFA up for 3 years at an average annual value of $1.41m.  The AAV is decent enough and with the term theres a few ways this contract can go.  Either Steven Santini’s play drastically improves and it’s a major bargain, or it doesn’t and the Devils are overpaying for a replacement-level defenseman.

Steven Santini started the year on the top pair with Greene as Nick Villano wrote about yesterday and the New Jersey Devils had one of the best records in the NHL in that span.  However, the numbers paint a very different picture of Santini’s start.  The reality is that his first 10 games ended up being an overall reflection of the rest of the season.

Using Natural Stat Trick we can break down Santini’s first 10 games vs the remainder of his season and then look at his overall numbers.

The First Ten Games

In his first 10 games, Santini posted a CF% of 40.34, lowest of all Devils defensemen.

A FF% of 40.64 last of all Devils defensemen.

And a SCF% of 40.28, again last of all Devils defensemen.

The argument can be made that he wasn’t set up for success on the first pair alongside veteran Andy Greene, but in those same 10 games Greene posted a CF% of 49.83, a FF% of 51.35 and a SCF% of 52.29.

The Next 26

Santini’s remaining 26 games didn’t look any better.  He posted a CF% of 39.10, a FF% of 41.42 and a SCF% of 39.69.  Last, last, and last.  The biggest difference in that span is that Andy Greene joined him at the bottom ending up 2^nd to last in every category.

Greene Without Santini

Now, let’s take a quick look at Greene after Santini was sent down to the AHL. That’s when he was permanently paired with Sami Vatanen.

He posted a CF% of 47.69 and a SCF% of 47.74.  Both those numbers were last of all Devils defensemen but were massive improvements over his numbers when he and Santini were paired together.

The numbers may not mean a lot, but there are others way to look at Greene and Santini’s impact and how Greene performed without Santini.  Using HockeyViz.com’s WoWY tool, you can see how they generated and prevented shots when on the ice.

Santini and Greene were solid when it comes to keeping shots outside of High Danger area’s but generated almost no offense.  That’s not ideal for a 1^st pair who will be spending most of their time with top six forwards who need to be generating a lot of offense.

I don’t want to base Santini’s year entirely on his time with Greene, so I decided to take a look from an alternate angle.

How did Santini and rookie defenseman Will Butcher both perform when on the ice with Taylor Hall?

In 141 minutes with Hall, the duo posted a CF% of 42.86.  That’s pretty good for Santini last year, but absolutely terrible for Hall.  Their SCF% was better at 47.97.  You’d expect that it would be hard to post below average numbers when on the ice with the Hart Trophy winner as all thats required when you’re on the ice with Hall is that you get him the puck.

On the other hand, Butcher played 256 minutes with Hall and posted a CF% of 57.64 and a SCF% of 59.27.  Those numbers are much better and it makes sense when you look at Butcher’s impact in in zone entries and exits.

By attempting to eliminate Greene from the comparison (which is impossible because Santini primarly played with him) and focusing on Hall we get a different view on Santini’s on ice impacts and they still aren’t pretty.

So, what can be expected from Santini after signing that contract?

He’s a big physical defenseman who doesn’t have great hands and isn’t good in transition.  He’s a big physical presence and is probably a similar player to Ben Lovejoy at his best.

Realistically, Santini projects as a 3^rd pairing/7^th defenseman moving forward.  Unfortunately for Santini, his style of play likely fit the NHL 10-15 years ago. In order to be a true impact top 4 defenseman, you need to be solid in transition, not just a big body that can hit.

Overall, the contract isn’t bad as long as Santini can step in for Ben Lovejoy when his contract is up. However, I wouldn’t expect him to beat out Lovejoy this year.

If Santini can establish himself as the 3^rd pairing RD moving forward, or even after Lovejoy’s contract is up, the Devils shouldn’t have any issues with his cap hit.  This contract basically buys the Devils time with Vatanen and Severson locked up in the top 4 while Reilly Walsh plays at least the next year at Harvard.

At worst, the Devils are slightly overpaying for a replacement level defenseman for a few years, but if Santini reverses his fortune it could be a bargain for New Jersey.

Numbers from Natural Stat Trick.

WOWY heat maps from HockeyViz.com

Transition viz from CJ Turtoro and data from Corey Sznajder.

Passing data from Ryan Stimson of The Athletic.