Likelihood Luke Hughes Will Be Gone When New Jersey Devils Pick In NHL Draft
The New Jersey Devils are sitting with the fourth-overall pick in the NHL Draft. The lottery didn’t go their way in terms of moving up, but they definitely avoided the worst-case scenario, and sitting at number four overall might be perfect to get their desired target. Luke Hughes to the Devils seems like the most obvious pick in this draft. There are three things in the way of the inevitable; the Anaheim Ducks, Seattle Kraken, and Buffalo Sabres.
What is the likelihood that the Devils can’t pick Jack Hughes’ brother? This really isn’t the draft to spend assets to move up. So, the only chance for the Devils to pair the Hughes brothers on the same team is to have him fall to them at four.
What kind of needs do the other teams ahead of the Devils have? Not many analysts rank Luke Hughes as one of the top three prospects, but some do. Friend of the Let’s Go Devils podcast Josh Bell ranked Hughes as his best prospect. He had him ahead of Owen Power, Matthew Beniers, and Brandt Clarke.
However, NHL.com has Hughes listed as the fourth-best North American skater. He has Michigan’s Kent Johnson and Mason MacTavish ahead of him on top of Power. The ratings are all over the place. Another friend of the podcast Rachel Doerie has Hughes ranked between 9 and 15.
So, basically, anything can happen during this draft. There’s no saying who is going to go where. Plus, these teams are going to do a ton of research on these prospects between now and the draft. These prospects could really wow GMs in the interview process, causing them to fall in love with them. Since the talent is so close, one team can fall in love with Hughes. So, who is most likely to take Hughes away from the Devils? Let’s start with number one.
Buffalo Sabres
Right off the top, the Buffalo Sabres aren’t terribly likely to take Hughes. He’s not many analysts’ top player, and the Sabres have bigger needs than a defenseman that is pretty far away from being NHL ready. He’s not as far away as normal 1st-round picks, but he’s not as close as a normal top-five pick. Hughes has a September birthday, so he’s one of the youngest prospects in the draft.
Buffalo needs a little more hope with so much going wrong. They are likely going to trade away Jack Eichel. There are other players like Sam Reinhart who will likely be traded too. The already weak NHL roster is going to take a hit, and they could be in place for the number-one overall pick again next season. However, they won’t have a Taylor Hall tie to get them closer to that pick.
They need someone who has a little more immediate impact. It looks like Owen Power or Matt Beniers would be the pick here. Power is a left-handed defenseman just like Hughes. They already have Rasmus Dahlin as a number-one overall pick defenseman for the future and the present. It’s possible they want a right-handed defenseman, which it would then be Brandt Clarke, who happens to be the brother of Devils prospect Graeme Clark.
It still seems like Beniers makes the most sense. He’s a much different center than Eichel, but he has a legitimate two-way game that could really help them in the future. Either way, it seems like Hughes will be safe from Buffalo.
Seattle Kraken
It seems like it should be obvious that the Kraken would take the player between Power and Beniers who isn’t taken by Buffalo. However, looking at Ron Francis’ draft history, that may not be the case. In his first three drafts as general manager of the Carolina Hurricanes, Francis took Hayden Fleury, Noah Hanifin, and Jake Bean. All three of those players are defensemen, and it wasn’t until he had those players in house until he ventured away from that plan.
The Kraken need… well… everything. They literally have nothing on their team. The NHL Expansion Draft is literally taking place two days before the NHL Entry Draft, so Francis doesn’t have a lot of time between these two very important decisions. If he wants to go defense no matter what, Hughes might be in jeopardy here. He seems to be an executive who likes to start with defense.
What happens during the expansion draft will have a big impact on his decisions in the entry draft. If he ends up with players like Vince Dunn, Shayne Gostisbehere, and Will Butcher, Francise might like how his young defense is shaping up and might want to go forward. It is a defense heavy draft, and Francis has a history of taking defensemen early, so there is a risk here.
Is Hughes the second defenseman on Francis’ board? It sounds more like Simon Edvinsson would be a better pick for Seattle, or possibly Clarke since he’s right handed. It’s just hard to tell, and figuring out who they might take is just a guess at this point.
Anaheim Ducks
What are the Ducks going to do in the draft? It’s easier to figure out what came first, the duck or the egg. The Ducks could go with the remaining of the great defensemen. They could go for Beniers if he’s still available. They could go slightly off the board with Dylan Guenther or Mason McTavish. There are so many options.
And of course, one of them could absolutely be Luke Hughes. The Ducks aren’t trying to be good next season. They are trying to figure out their future. If they think Hughes will grow into the best defenseman in this class, then he should be their pick. The Ducks are likely going to lose Ryan Getzlaf in free agency, so it really is going to be an end of an era. They could also lose Adam Henrique in the expansion draft, so that’s another veteran off the board. This team is about players like Trevor Zegras, Jamie Drysdale, and Jacob Perreault. Add on the third-overall pick to the reason for optimism outside Disney Land.
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The Ducks are probably the Devils’ biggest threat to the Luke Hughes sweepstakes. He may be a conselation prize, but there’s still a chance he’s the best player in this draft. There are too many different players who could be the best. This is what makes this draft one of the scariest for GMs. There could be eight busts in the top ten. Or, they could all end up as stars. Not only is this a mediocre draft talent wise, but the entirety of the scouting process came during a global pandemic. So, the Ducks could take Luke Hughes. The Sabres could take Hughes. The Kraken could take Hughes. However, it still seems more likely than not that the Devils will have a chance to take Jack’s brother.