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New Jersey Devils Got A Worst-Case Scenario For Their Draft Picks

By Nick Villano

Brock Nelson #29 of the New York Islanders scores against the Boston Bruins at 5:20 of the second period in Game Six of the Second Round of the 2021 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at the Nassau Coliseum on June 09, 2021 in Uniondale, New York. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
Brock Nelson #29 of the New York Islanders scores against the Boston Bruins at 5:20 of the second period in Game Six of the Second Round of the 2021 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at the Nassau Coliseum on June 09, 2021 in Uniondale, New York. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images) /
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The New Jersey Devils had a lot of reasons to watch the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Despite what Tom Fitzgerald says, it has nothing to do with rooting for the New York Islanders despite the team being half former Devils. Actually, the Devils and their fans should have been rooting against the Islanders. Instead of their 1st-round draft pick being around 19, now it’s going to be at least 28th.

Obviously, this isn’t the most successful draft, but this absolutely changes the talent level the Devils are getting in the 1st round. It’s known the drop off in NHL probability from a 1st-round pick to a 2nd-round pick. The probabilities based on what you’re looking at are between 60 and 70% for a 1st-round pick. That drops to about 25-35% for 2nd-round picks.

This article from current Carolina Hurricanes scout and former Dobber Prospects contributor Jokke Nevalainen really goes deep into the probabilities based on where you’re picking. A pick in the 19, 20, 21 range has a 50-80% chance of playing 100 games in the NHL. A pick at 28 through 31 has a 20-40% chance of playing 100 games in the NHL. That’s a huge drop off in talent level.

Now, to be fair, the usual team picking here can take a chance on picks because they were one of the final four teams left (or traded for a second 1st-round pick). So, maybe there are some chances being taken with those picks. Some of the early 2nd-round picks jump a bit, so maybe the Devils have a chance.

Dreams of getting a high-upside player like Aatu Räty, Fabian Lysell, or Matthew Coronato are out the door. We’ll look at some of the options, but it’s looking like a player closer to Stanislav Svozil (who I actually really like). It’s a rough situation for the Devils.

Oh, and on top of all that, the Devils also have the Islanders’ 2nd-round pick, which is also worse.

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Beyond that, the Devils literally needed the Edmonton Oilers to just win their first-round matchup with the Winnipeg Jets to turn their 2022 4th-round pick in the Dmitry Kulikov trade into a 3rd-round pick. The Oilers couldn’t even win a game, so the Devils are stuck with a 4th rounder. In case you’re curious, the difference between a 3rd-round pick and a 4th-round pick is about 5%. It might not sound like a lot, but that’s two more players in the round that won’t make the NHL at all.

It is what it is. The Devils have done well with the picks they have. Let’s see what Tom Fitzgerald does in his second year with multiple 1st-round picks. He asked for this. He said he wanted to pick 31st. He’s getting close, and now he has to do the best with this pick that he can.

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