New Jersey Devils: 5 Defensemen Worth Trading Fourth-Overall Pick
The latest 31 Thoughts article from Elliotte Friedman had a very interesting note on the New Jersey Devils. It straight up says the Devils are considering a move that would get them a young defenseman for the fourth-overall pick in this year’s NHL Draft.
It seems counterintuitive on the surface. There are multiple young defensemen available with the fourth-overall pick. The Devils would need to get someone who is better for the team than Luke Hughes, Simon Edvinsson, and Brandt Clarke. That means the Devils would have to get a defenseman that has more value than those three who are likely to be available at pick number four. How many defensemen like that are out there?
It’s hard to quantify. A player like Erik Karlsson is better than who the Devils could draft now. He’s likely going to be better over the next several seasons. However, how long will that last? And when one takes the massive salary cap number into account, is Karlsson $11 million better than Luke Hughes?
There are a few defensemen the Devils would absolutely trade for fourth overall, but there’s no way it is happening. Cale Makar, Miro Heiskanen, Charlie McAvoy, and Jaccob Slavin would all make a lot of sense for the Devils. Unfortunately, there’s nothing that would get their teams to move them short of Jack Hughes and the entire Devils prospect pool.
So, who is worth the fourth-overall pick and has at least an outside chance of being available? It’s not an easy task, but let’s take a look at who Elliotte Friedman could be talking about.
Quinn Hughes
Speaking of counterintuitive, imagine trading the pick that the Devils could use to take Luke Hughes to take his brother Quinn off his worst season (albeit in a very short career). Quinn Hughes is still a very promising young defenseman. He was the runner up to the Calder Trophy just one season ago. He showed real ability to play on the top line for a playoff team. Plus, he’s able to shoulder the load for a very, very flawed defensive unit.
Hughes actually took a bigger role this past season. He played just under 22 minutes per game in his rookie season, which is a lot for a 20-year-old defenseman. Last season, Hughes jumped to 22:48 per game. This came as the Vancouver Canucks were putting up some terrible stats. Hughes might be the victim of a terrible team bringing down a good defenseman. We mentioned Karlsson earlier. The San Jose Sharks are a mess, and that’s making Karlsson look bad. However, that doesn’t make Karlsson bad.
The pandemic might have cratered Hughes’ value, but trading one draft pick for a defender who can absolutely play on the top line tomorrow and stay there for a decade is absolutely worth a fourth-overall pick. Hughes has a much higher floor than his brother, Edvinsson, and Clarke. He has an NHL pedigree.
This is on top of the whole “Jack and Quinn Hughes” brother marketing situation. The two Hughes brothers have seen some success at the next level, but neither has seen real success. The same 31 Thoughts article that inspired this piece also said the Canucks are expected to start negotiating with Hughes and Elias Pettersson soon. That negotiation might turn into a trade request if the two sides can’t agree.
Zach Werenski
It’s honestly surprising that Zach Werenski’s name hasn’t come up more this offseason. The Columbus Blue Jackets seem destined to sell this offseason. They are rumored to have both their starting caliber goalies on the market. They parted ways with head coach John Tortorella, who gave the franchise its most success since joining the league at the turn of the century. This team is in a weird spot.
The team is already shopping Seth Jones, but he’s not even close to worth the fourth-overall pick. In fact, the Devils should avoid Jones at all costs. Meanwhile, Werenski is a great all-around defenseman who can win battles, score in the offensive zone, and play a ton of minutes every night.
Werenski is turning 24 years old in a few weeks, and he’s about to enter his prime. He showed toughness this season, playing north of 24 minutes a game despite dealing with a hernia that eventually ended his season. Obviously, that brings some question marks, but nothing says this is supposed to have a long-term impact on Werenski’s career.
The Blue Jackets have to see the writing on the wall. Werenski has one more year lead on his three-year, $15 million deal. His actual salary next season is $7 million. That has multiple levels of impact. For one, that makes his qualifying offer $7 million just to keep him a restricted free agent. That also comes with an advantage now that he has arbitration rights. On top of all that, his long-term deal would likely have to start between $7.5 million and $8 million. The Devils would absolutely pay that, but the Blue Jackets might want to take the asset and let someone else pay the price. The Devils would be happy to oblige.
Rasmus Dahlin
We all know what’s happening in Buffalo. It’s an absolute fire sale. The thing about a fire sale is everything is for sale. It’s not a fire sale if the seller is getting picky. It doesn’t mean everything is cheap, it just means everything is for sale. It seems like there is a price on everything in Western New York, and that includes former number-one overall pick, Rasmus Dahlin.
Dahlin had a pretty lackluster season this past year. The entire Sabres team was awful, and now the Sabres are looking to get rid of everyone. They have the number-one overall pick in the 2021 NHL Draft, and they could be looking to get another top-10 pick. They could just look to regroup the defense in one-fell swoop by trading Dahlin for both of the Devils’ 1st-round picks along with a really good prospect.
It would be worth it if Dahlin even comes to 80% of his potential. He’s built to be a monster defender for years to come. He’s still only 21 years old, and he already showed he can at least hold his own in the NHL. The Sabres were a mess, they got COVID, and the team was a tire fire from one side to the other. Do not judge Dahlin based on this season.
Buffalo likely doesn’t want to make Dahlin available, but they would consider anything at this point. Again, we’re looking at a fire sale here. Dahlin would be a massive trade, but he is absolutely worth the fourth-overall pick and a massive trade beyond that. He’s due to a huge contract extension next offseason, so the Sabres might be willing to get out of it before spending an arm and a leg before they are ready.
Jakob Chychrun
Who knows what’s happening in Arizona? The Coyotes are in a bad way with forfeited draft picks, a controversy-ridden franchise, denouncing their big draft pick last season, and nothing to really look forward to for the next few seasons. The Yotes are stuck with an overpaid Oliver Ekman-Larsson (although, he’s still a good player), a rapidly aging Phil Kessel, and a group of stars that desperately need direction. They don’t even have a head coach right now after letting Rick Tocchet go.
This team has some really impressive talent in Christian Dvorak, Clayton Keller, and Barret Hayton. However, there’s not much beyond that on offense. Then, they have Jakob Chychrun on defense. He’s someone who could garner a massive package of picks and prospects. The Coyotes desperately need to restock the cupboard.
The issue here is the Coyotes have nothing in terms of defense beyond Chychrun and Ekman-Larsson. Ilya Lyubushkin is the only other defenseman under contract next season. For those who aren’t experts at math, that means they have three defensemen signed for next season. If they trade Chychrun without getting a defenseman in return, then they have two defensemen signed next season. Victor Söderström might be able to jump in. Maybe Cam Dineen can do something on the roster, but the Coyotes would have to add some names on the free agency market just to fill the roster.
Still, the Devils have some assets the Coyotes desperately need. They have to get prospects in the pool. The Devils have a plethora of good to great prospects who have a lot of upside in the NHL. With the Coyotes missing another 1st-round pick, they have to make the most of the assets they have now.
Devon Toews
The Colorado Avalanche traded two 2nd-round picks to steal Devon Toews from the New York Islanders, but it is becoming an embarrassment of riches over in the Rocky Mountains. Having Toews on top of Cale Makar, Sam Girard, Bowen Byram, and Ryan Graves is straight up unfair. Obviously, if they don’t make a move, it will lead to losing one of these players (outside of Byram who is not eligible).
The move that makes the most sense is Graves, and the Devils should absolutely consider that, but the fourth-overall pick is nowhere near available in that deal. When it comes to Toews, it’s definitely something the Devils would think about twice. There are a few issues here.
For one, Toews is much older in hockey years compared to the other players on this list. He’s 27 and coming off by far his best season. Can he continue to play at the level of one of the better defenders in the league, and how much was he lifted by playing next to Makar. They played 366 minutes together at even strength. He also played 272 minutes with Girard. Those are two of the best young defensemen this decade. It’s hard not to look good next to them.
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However, the Devils need to make a splash, and Toews play this season showed he can look awesome playing on the left side. It’s probably an overpay to give up the fourth-overall pick, but Joe Sakic dominated the last Toews trade and it shouldn’t come as a surprise he would dominate another trade involving him. This time, the Devils could end up happy if they finally find a second defenseman that can play on the first line. They’ve been trying to find it since before they made the Sami Vatanen trade in 2017.