Can Goaltending Support New Jersey Devils On A Nightly Basis?

After a tumultuous start to the season, the New Jersey Devils are 6-3-0.  Early season indicators are always tough to process, but the signs point to the Devils being a dominant 5v5 team with a middling power play and a very good penalty kill. The skater group has shown up this season. Will the goaltending follow suit?

The New Jersey Devils have arguably been the best team in the league.

While expected goals and goals against are always contested among fans, they provide insight into how the team plays. For example, the Flyers are 5-2-1, but their play doesn’t characterize them as “dangerous.” They rank just 30th in xGF and 19th in xGA. In contrast, the Devils rank 3rd in xGF and 1st in xGA, making them the best expected 5v5 team in the league (MoneyPuck).

The only issue the Devils have had is finishing, as they rank 13th in GF. This shouldn’t be a long-term issue, however, and we have already started to see the team score a bit more (7-1 against Columbus on an expected 5.87)

Now, why does all this matter? After all, the Devils have scored less than expected and have given up the 17th most goals in the league. However, the expected stats are important, as it shows that the team is playing the right way, and even if they get some level of average goaltending, they should be able to win most games.

This is highlighted by Washington, Detroit, and Columbus games. In all three games, the Devils controlled 5v5 play and led in shot attempts and xGF. However, they went 2-1-0 in these games, including a very poor 6-3 drumming against the Caps. In the Washington game, the tandem of Mackenzie Blackwood and Vitek Vanecek gave up 6 goals on an expected 1.5. For any team to win games, the goaltender must make a save. Letting in 4.5 more goals than expected is a recipe for disaster. Contrastly, they won 6-2 and 7-1, respectively, against Detriot and Columbus. In both games, Vanecek played well and stopped what was expected of him. The Devils only need one thing to maintain their good play and be a force in the Metropolitan Division this season: decent goaltending.

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Goaltending continues to be an issue.

Goaltending has been an issue ever since Cory Schneider’s injury troubles. Since then, the Devils have had a revolving door of goaltenders trying to fix the issue. After the Corey Crawford and Jonathan Bernier swing-and-misses, it seems that Mackenzie Blackwood and Vitek Vanecek are the two goalies General Manager Tom Fitzgerald has settled on. In early looks, this tandem is less than ideal.

Vanecek and Blackwood rank in the bottom 14 in the NHL regarding Goals Saved Above Expected and combined have saved -5.8 xGSA, meaning they are statistically the 2nd worst tandem in the league after the Minnesota Wild. This is particularly alarming when one considers that the Devils let the lowest number of shots in the league, meaning both these goaltenders have the lowest and easiest workload in the NHL. To give credit, they seem to be playing much better in recent games, but is that a product of the schedule or have they truly turned a new lead?

This uneasiness is what will make or break the Devils this year. If they can get the goaltending that Vanecek provided over his last three starts, then they should be fine. If not, they may end up just missing and ending up like Vancouver last year.

What do the Devils need from their goalies?

The dreaded phrase “League-Average Goaltending” still rings true this season. Through the first 10 games of the season, the average xGSA was 0.2, so essentially stopping what a goaltender is asked of. This would be more than enough for the Devils this year, even more than last year. At the rate the Devils are scoring, they need enough goaltending to support them. The team has been (and hopefully will continue) suppressing high-danger chances. If the goalies can make the difficult saves, this team will win most of its games.