New Jersey Devils: Comparing Jack Hughes To Other Hart Trophy Candidates
Jack Hughes has been the New Jersey Devils best player by a large margin. He’s even getting hyped as one of the best players in the league. How does he compare with other Hart Trophy candidates?
The New Jersey Devils are giving fans the season we’ve been waiting for during this longer-than-expected rebuild. When the Devils took Jack Hughes with the first-overall pick, many thought they could compete with him instantly. Now, three full seasons later, the Devils are finally where many expected them to be years ago. It’s thanks to Jack Hughes that the Devils find themselves in second place in a very competitive Metropolitan Division on January 15th.
Hughes has been carrying the Devils offensively. He has 54 points, 11 more than Jesper Bratt, who’s second on the team, and 28 goals, nine more than Nico Hischier, who’s second on the team. The Devils are getting more offense than they’ve seen in a long time, and Hughes is still leaps and bounds higher than everyone. He’s on pace to break every Devils offensive record.
With all that, Hughes is getting Hart Trophy hype. However, that hasn’t turned into better odds. According to Wynn Bet, Hughes is still 60/1 to win the Hart, tied for 13th in the league with names like Aleksander Barkov, Alexander Ovechkin, and Igor Shesterkin. That’s still very low for what Hughes has been doing. Let’s see how Hughes compares with the top five players in Hart Trophy odds.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Tage Thompson – Buffalo Sabres
Odds: 30/1
Tage Thompson has been stealing headlines all season, but this seems like a little much. 30/1 is still a huge longshot (and you’ll see why in a moment), but for Thompson to have twice the chance as Hughes to win the Hart Trophy? That seems preposterous.
The Buffalo Sabres have been better this season, but they are far behind the Devils. The Sabres are five points outside the final playoff spot with three games at hand to the New York Islanders. They do get to add some easier wins against the likes of the bottom of the Atlantic Division, so they could make a play. However, when comparing Hughes to Thompson, the stats tell an interesting story.
Hughes is trailing Thompson by three goals and four points. Thompson deserves to be where he’s at, but with the Sabres out of the playoff race for now, it would be hard to see him winning the Hart, especially with someone with a similar profile like Hughes. It will be a fun race to the finish if it somehow comes down to these two (barring an injury to number one on this list).
Nikita Kucherov – Tampa Bay Lightning
Odds: 30/1
This one is a little surprising because Nikita Kucherov hasn’t had the same hype he did in previous years, but Nikita Kucherov is still one of the best players in the National Hockey League. He’s third in the league with 62 points. By pure points, this has him so high in the MVP race.
This isn’t to say that Kuch doesn’t deserve to be in the race, but it’s still surprising to see him this high without the hype. A lot has to do with the Tampa Bay Lightning having been here so often. We’ve heard Kucherov’s name so much that one would think it’s time to hear other names at this point in the season. At least when it comes to MVP.
Kucherov was close to the unanimous choice for MVP back in 2019. It wouldn’t be anything close to unanimous if Kucherov eventually won. There are just too many candidates.
When comparing Kucherov’s season to Hughes, the advanced stats favor Hughes. Hughes has more individual high-danger chances at 5v5, more takeaways, fewer giveaways, and he’s dominating at even strength while Kucherov is doing most of his damage on the power play. His even-strength play should propel Hughes past Kucherov eventually. Hughes is actually beating Kuch in both goals and points at 5v5 despite being down by eight when considering all strengths.
Jason Robertson – Dallas Stars
Odds: 20/1
Even though Tage Thompson is having such a ridiculous season with the Sabres, and voters love a player who jumps into the MVP race seemingly out of nowhere, his status as a playoff tweener makes Hughes the better candidate. That’s not the case for Jason Robertson. The former second-round pick in the NHL Draft has lifted the Dallas Stars to the top of the Central Division with the Winnipeg Jets.
Robertson is fourth in the league with 60 points, six points ahead of Hughes at all strengths. He’s two points behind Hughes in even strength points.
Despite the similar stats, Hughes and Robertson play a completely different style. Hughes is second in the league with 24 rush attempts at 5v5. Robertson has two this season. However, that hasn’t stopped Robertson from getting a ridiculous amount of high-danger chances, besting Hughes by two (55 to 53 at even strength).
Robertson has been one of the best players in the league, but his real case is he’s been one of the most clutch players in the league. He’s fourth in the league with 24 high-danger chances when his team is trailing. He is forcing his team to be one of the best in the league. Robertson has been phenomenal this season, just like Hughes. Expect him to stay in the race all season.
David Pastrnak – Boston Bruins
15/1
David Pastrnak is doing everything right this season, and his timing couldn’t be better. He’s in a contract year, and there’s a slim possibility he could become the fifth NHL player with a $100 million contract. Right now, Pastrnak has 33 goals and 59 points. It’s not even like he’s playing with All-Stars like Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand. He’s on a line with Pavel Zacha (lolz) and David Krejci.
Pastrnak allows the Bruins to have two of the most lethal lines in hockey. Hughes is in a similar position. When looking at line impact, it tells an interesting story. Hughes’ line with Erik Haula and Jesper Bratt is the best in hockey, according to Money Puck. Pastrnak’s line with Zacha and Krejci is 151st.
Part of that is Pastrnak’s points coming from the power play. However, he isn’t even at the top of the scoreboard (his 24 points are fifth in the league). It seems the Bruins can put Pastrnak up against better competition, which is impacting some of his advanced stats. He’s still getting all the counting stats because Pastrnak needs just a moment or one mistake to score.
Right now, we’d hope Hughes would have the edge on Pastrnak. Hughes is making a bigger impact on his team. That’s not to say there’s anything wrong with Pastrnak. He deserves to be in this conversation. It’s just incredibly surprising he’s second on the MVP odds.
Connor McDavid – Edmonton Oilers
Odds: -450
Yeah, duh. Connor McDavid is having a ridiculous season. He is 18 points away from 100 points. It’s January 15th. There’s a reason he’s -450. For those who don’t know how ridiculous of a favorite this is, bettors would have to wager $450 just to win $100. McDavid has better odds of winning MVP than the Jets have to beat the Arizona Coyotes at home on Sunday night.
Still, the MVP/Hart Trophy voting is all about narrative. Taylor Hall won the MVP, not because people thought he was the best player in the league. He won because he was the most important player in the league. The Devils weren’t coming close to a playoff berth that season. The same goes for McDavid. Without the best player in the league, the Oilers would be in the league basement. Yes, even with Leon Draisaitl.
However, narratives can change. Old school NHL voters still value power play points, of which McDavid has 41, one more than his 5v5 points. New NHL voters do not. McDavid only has three more even strength points than Hughes. Also, if the Oilers continue to struggle to keep playoff positioning (they are currently on the outside looking in and the Colorado Avalanche are still not healthy), voters may be looking elsewhere.
Next. New Jersey Devils Midseason Report Card. dark
McDavid deserves to be the MVP favorite. Some would be crazy to put their money on anyone else, but the oddsmakers made it incredibly enticing with Hughes at 60/1. Hughes has about 40 more games to change minds, and we believe he will.