New Jersey Devils: 3 Scenarios For Timo Meier Negotiations
The New Jersey Devils are facing a lot of major decisions this offseason. After committing to Lindy Ruff as the head coach and letting Andrew Brunette walk to Nashville, the next most important decision is the contract of Timo Meier. The Devils acquired Meier from the San Jose Sharks near the NHL Trade Deadline. He ended up being exactly what they needed; an offensive powerhouse who can impact the game in multiple different ways.
Meier scored zero points for the Devils in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but can anyone say the Devils win that series without him? His style of play got under the skin of Rangers players, which is why Jacob Trouba tried to take his head off. The Devils ended up securing the team’s first playoff series win in more than a decade, and Meier played a significant role.
Now, the Devils have to figure out what to do next with Meier. His negotiations are much different than Jesper Bratt’s. There is one main reason why. It has to do with a certain eight-figure guarantee that puts the cards in his deck.
Scenario 1: Meier Plays On Qualifying Offer Only
Timo Meier could do zero negotiating, and he’d play this season on a one-year deal worth $10 million. No arbitration necessary. He would march to unrestricted free agency in 2024 with a massive payday in his pocket. At just 26 years old, Meier knows he can choose this option and still secure the bag next offseason. The Devils could force Meier to arbitration, taking his salary down to $8.5 million, but no team wants to go there with a player they want long term.
This is a worst-case scenario for the Devils. They already paid a steep price for Meier’s services in terms of assets sent to the Sharks. Now, they could be looking at a scenario where they spent all that capital, including a possible two first-round picks, and all they received was two years of Meier (although, if it is two first, that means the Devils made it to the Eastern Conference Finals).
Meier has all the motivation in the world to just take this option. It’s easy, the Devils can’t complain, and he could earn himself an Artemi Panarin-like contract in free agency next season. A full year playing next to Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier would easily afford him another 40-goal season. Doing that in back-to-back years would make him worth a $70+ million deal. It’s a scary but very realistic possibility for the Devils.
Scenario 2: Meier and Devils sign long-term deal
This is the scenario the Devils want. It is probably what Meier wants, but he isn’t nearly as desperate for it. Remember, the Devils are the ones who sent a large package to get Meier’s services. They took on all of the risk. Meier is just playing until he hits free agency.
So, Meier is just going to let the cards play out. His agent Claude Lemieux will definitely listen to long-term offers, but he has no motivation to even acknowledge any offer that comes under $8 million per season. If he doesn’t want to sign for the full seven years, he doesn’t have to. He can wait until free agency, and teams will line up to give him what he wants. The Devils included.
Obviously, the Devils at least asked what it would take to get this done quickly. Our guess is taking that $10 million qualifying number and multiplying it by seven. That probably won’t fly based on what Fitzgerald has said. He’s trying to keep everyone’s cap hits under Jack Hughes’s $8 million per season. That’s a nice thought, but it’s not happening. Meier will command way closer to $9 million, and the Devils should probably just give it to him if he signs for more than five seasons.
A six-year, $52.5 million deal ($8.75 million AAV) seems logical for all sides. This doesn’t completely ruin the Devils cap, and Meier gets a deal that makes him a free agent right before his prime ends, so he can cash in at least one more time.
Scenario 3: A Trade
We said in the Bratt piece that there was no scenario where we see him get traded. It’s because arbitration is a legit option that everyone will do everything they can to avoid. Here, Meier has no motivation to go to arbitration. He is very unlikely to get more than $10 million in those negotiations. So, he’s more motivated to just play on his QO.
The Devils are coming from a disadvantageous position. Meier holds the power here. No GM wants to be in that position. That’s not the case with Bratt. The Devils could make the very awful move of forcing Meier to arbitration and taking his salary down to $8.5 million. That’s why it is much more likely that the Devils trade Meier than Bratt.
This isn’t to say the Devils should trade Meier. They cannot get equal value for a team pushing for a championship. Unless the Devils trade him for a player like William Nylander (and most would agree that the Devils would have more trouble replacing what Meier brings than celebrate what Nylander does), there’s no value in getting rid of a player of Meier’s caliber.
Next. 3 Scenarios With Bratt's Contract. dark
It seems more likely the Devils would let Meier play on the $10 million number than trade him, but we’re looking at the possible scenarios. If Fitzgerald truly believes Meier is being unreasonable, he might make a move and try to recoup assets he lost to San Jose. Let’s hope this isn’t the situation, because this would be dire.