The big news floating around the NHL is that Connor Hellebuyck could be looking to find a new team. Reports say he could sign an extension with the New Jersey Devils if traded there. While it is interesting to see players call where they want to go in the NHL, that doesn’t make it a good move for the Devils. There are a few reasons why.
Cap room and future flexibility.
The Devils need to make sure they have ample cap room for players who will probably be very good or for additions in the near future, as their window is just opening up. Timo Meier will be getting probably over $8 million within a few weeks. Dawson Mercer will be over $6 million next offseason.
We can’t forget that in a few years, the Devils have Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec who will be coming off entry-level deals. They really can’t be handcuffed this early in the competition window, and it can do a lot of damage to teams who find holes in the roster later and force them to sell off pieces or make losing trades to balance things out. This happened to the Maple Leafs multiple times, and they might have to do it again this offseason with just one playoff series win to their name.
Goaltenders and age
Hellebuyck is 30 and coming off a $6.1 million deal, meaning he will probably be asking for a substantial raise. If the rumors and speculation put out by NHL insiders are true, he could be looking at Andrei Vasilevskiy’s money, which is north of $9 million. You do need good goaltending to win, but outside of Vasy, the other most recent five Stanley Cup winners were Adin Hill, Darcy Kuemper, Jordan Binnington, and Braden Holtby.
Hill and Binnington came out of absolutely nowhere to win with their teams, and they either are or will get overpaid because of it. Kuemper is a good goalie when healthy, and Holtby had a couple of solid seasons before falling off. One could argue the last goalie to really carry a team to the finish line was a decade ago with Jonathan Quick.
On the topic of age, the majority of goaltenders tend to fall off a cliff near 30. The Devils should be smart enough to avoid this mistake again because the odds of him being good at 36 like Martin Brodeur are incredibly low. The team should have learned this lesson already, but for a quick recap let’s take a trip down memory lane.
Cory Schneider went from a .924 save percentage guy down to a .907 in his age-32 season. He continued to fall from one of the league’s best to the league’s worst goaltender. Jonathan Bernier went from a .913 down to .904 between the ages of 29 to 30. When he arrived in Jersey as a 33-year-old, he played 10 games with a .902 and his career is basically done due to injury. Then we all remember Crawford retiring before even playing a game though he was in his mid to late thirties.
Timeline and Belief
Hellebuyck does have some good years left. Nobody is arguing that this contract is guaranteed to age poorly, since the Devils have youth on their side. Vitek Vanecek is only 27 years old. More importantly, he has played way less hockey so he should have far more miles left in him and his numbers are decent for a 1a/1b goaltender over the last three seasons at only $3.4 million.
The differences in save percentage between these two over the last three seasons are .08, .02, and .09 in favor of Hellebuyck. Is this worth an extra $3 million on the cap this season and likely being locked into an extra $4-6million for six-plus seasons?
Akira Schmid had a .922 save percentage, .02 better than Hellebuyck in the regular season. Even with the up and down playoffs, he had a .921 when the games got big. Hellebuyck in five playoff games this season had an .886 save percentage. To be fair, the team in front of him is very mediocre.
The Likely Cost
Hellebuyck is not returning to Winnipeg like a lot of that team when their contracts are up by the looks of it. While this may lower his value, someone is always willing to pay a premium for a big name especially if they can get him locked up quickly or think they are one guy from a Cup. The Devils have assets, but nothing they should be willing to move would be appealing to the Jets with guys like Nemec and Luke Hughes obviously off the table. The Devils just traded a first-round pick, Fabian Zetterlund, and Shakir Mukhamadullin.
They also may not have a first-round pick next season thanks to the Meier trade. There is no way Winnipeg is waiting three years to see a first rounder from this deal.
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The best the Devils could probably realistically offer would be Vanecek, Yegor Sharangovich, and their second-rounder, which is something that another team could easily beat.
With all that has happened in net with the Devils over the last few years, this team should stand with what it has and not make a big splash. The forwards are great, the defense has a good mix of proven guys and potential big names coming in, and the goaltending was very reliable last season. Unless Hellebuyck wanted to take a shorter team-friendly deal, this would be an easy pass.