5 Reasons To Be Optimistic About New Jersey Devils Playoff Chances
The New Jersey Devils have had a terrible start to the season. However, despite being outside a playoff spot on American Thanksgiving, the Devils are still more likely than not to make the playoffs. That beats conventional wisdom, but according to MoneyPuck, the Devils still have over a 60 percent chance to make the postseason.
As of Thanksgiving, the Devils are just four points outside a playoff spot. That’s incredibly attainable. What’s actually complicated is that the Devils are two spots from the bottom in the Eastern Conference. They would have to jump six other teams to make a playoff push.
It’s still really early, and there’s a lot to be confident about this team. The playoffs are literally months away, so let’s look at the reasons we should be confident this is rock bottom.
1. The Return of the Stars
As always, let’s start with the obvious. Jack Hughes is already back. Nico Hischier has been practicing and could be back as soon as Friday. Timo Meier is out with a mystery ailment, but based on the initial diagnosis, he shouldn’t be out too long. Colin Miller just returned, and he’s fitting into the lineup very well. Nolan Foote is also injured, but who knows when he’ll return.
The return of Hughes and the impending return of Hischier will change how the offense operates. Michael McLeod played above his head, but putting him back on the fourth line with Nathan Bastian and another forward (possibly Alexander Holtz, who had great chemistry with them earlier in the season). Adding a Hart Trophy contender and a Selke-caliber center to play on the top two lines will push this team back into contention.
2. Defensive Progression
The New Jersey Devils defense has been astronomically bad. We’ve been saying that not all high-danger chances are treated the same. While the Devils are right in the middle of the pack in terms of high-danger chances against per 60 at 5v5. Those stats are according to Natural Stat Trick.
However, the Devils’ defense has very clearly been worse than league average. The high-danger chances are more like extreme-danger chances. 2-on-1s and major rebound chances are much more likely to be goals than simple shots in front. The Devils are giving up terrible chances in just about every game. What’s worse is they are going in the net.
The issue is we knew the Devils were going to struggle defensively. They lost Damon Severson and Ryan Graves in the offseason and replaced them with Miller, who was injured for most of the season, Kevin Bahl, and Luke Hughes. There were always going to be growing pains. It’s just one month into the season. We have to be patient with the defense. While a trade for Nikita Zadorov or Chris Tanev might make sense, the Devils just have to avoid rash maneuvers.
The defense will get better. Luke Hughes has been fine defensively, and he could eventually be good. Dougie Hamilton always struggles at the beginning of the season in his own end. He’s been great offensively, so that makes up a little for his defensive lapses. That will figure itself out. Jonas Siegenthaler and John Marino are more of a mystery. They’ve made too many mistakes. We’ve seen this from both of them before, but this is the longest stretch we can remember. However, they have gotten out of it before. We have to hope they can get out of it again.
3. Goaltending Can’t Be Worse
This isn’t the best argument, but it’s pretty true. This isn’t the situation from two years ago, where injuries and ineffectiveness had the team swirling down the drain. Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid started with a lack of confidence in the defense, and now they are in their head. It’s very clear. Vanecek has been completely out of position on many save attempts, including the game winner against the New York Rangers.
Jimmy Vesey again! Vesey tucks home the rebound to give the Rangers the lead in the third!#NYR pic.twitter.com/wlTGvRKpxU
— Hockey Daily 365 l NHL Highlights & News (@HockeyDaily365) November 19, 2023
The Devils need goalies with better rebound control and better positioning. Only two goalies (Alexandar Georgiev and Elvis Merzlikins) have a worse goals saved above average than Vanecek. Stuart Skinner and Filip Gustavsson are both in the same conversation in terms of stats. Those are all decent goalies; at least, they were last season. One would say this is just a bad month, which happens with average to above-average goalies.
The Devils did not go after the superstars at the position in the offseason. Now, almost all of them are not available. So, it sounds like the deal right now is Vanecek and Schmid have to be better. Schmid hasn’t played enough, so we hope to see that changing. The Devils need goalies to succeed this season. They at least need it to be average. Can this pair do that? One would assume it only gets better from here since it can’t get worse.
4. Power Play is Sustainable
The one aspect of the Devils on-ice production that can be considered a success is the emergence of this power play. They are hitting at a 37% clip on the PP, which is still the best in the league. Despite not having as many power plays as before, they still lead the league with 23 total power-play goals.
There is a trope that once a team’s power play gets too good, the referees start to swallow the whistle. We see that happening to the Devils, but that stretch will end. If the refs think they will decide the game with their decisions, they will lean towards swallowing the whistle entirely. They will give more power plays to the other team, and the Devils will get screwed. The numbers don’t lie. Currently, the Devils have 61 power play opportunities. Only 11 teams in the league have fewer. The refs have not been calling penalties for the Devils despite some very obvious penalties not getting called.
That will even itself out eventually, and the Devils should be in the top ten in opportunities. There’s no reason to think this team can’t score on 30% of power plays moving forward. With a forward group including Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Timo Meier, and Jesper Bratt, on top of Luke Hughes and Dougie Hamilton on the back end, this PP is sustainable over the long haul.
The publicity around the Devils power play became a negative. With their struggles, that publicity isn’t there anymore. That will actually help.
5. 5v5 Numbers Will Even Out
The Devils have one of the worst counting stats at even strength in the NHL. We went through the numbers on Wednesday night after the disgusting loss to the Red Wings. The Devils are sixth worst in the league at goals per 60 minutes at 5v5. This team, with players like Hughes, Meier, and Bratt is having terrible trouble scoring when not on the power play.
The thing about those numbers is when digging deeper, this seems like luck and finishing more than anything. That usually figures itself out. Tyler Toffoli and… John Marino have the most 5v5 points on the team with eight. This team will not succeed with Marino being the top point contributor.
The team is getting chances. Timo Meier, Michael McLeod, and Toffoli all have 20 or more individual high-danger chances. Hughes and Bratt will work themselves there eventually, as will Nico Hischier when he returns. The scoring will get better. We already mentioned the defense, but as far as total chances, they are about league average. They just need to avoid the mistakes and score more, and this team will be going far. Yeah, it sounds like a lot to ask, but they are doing close to that already.
5 Players Who Fitzgerald Luckily Avoided. dark. Next
This has been a bad start. It’s about as bad as it could be with this level of talent. The coaching staff has the tools. Now, they need to execute. Start on Black Friday with a win against Columbus.