New Jersey Devils must take more shots
New Jersey was outshot by Carolina in all four regular-season meetings, with a shot differential of -24 at 5v5. The team only cracked 25 or more SOG in one of those games, whereas the Canes had at least 30 SOG in three of the four matchups.
Not only did the Devils struggle to get pucks on net, but the team was dominated in terms of possession. Per Natural Stat Trick, the Devils had a Corsi-for of just 43.5% at 5v5 during the season series.
Improving in this area is going to be a key factor for the Devils, especially given the Hurricanes' goalie situation as of late. Starter Pyotr Kochetkov has struggled ever since he won four straight in early March. In his last seven appearances, Kochetkov is just 2-5-0 with a .832 SV%, allowing 27 goals against.
This opens the door for veteran Freddie Andersen to get first dibs in the playoffs. He has a record of 7-2-1 in his last 10 games, rocking a .907 SV% and 2.28 GAA in that time. That would be deja vu for the Devils, who were unable to solve Andersen in the 2023 playoffs en route to the Hurricanes' 4-1 series win.
The Devils have been inconsistent regarding SOG all season long, so the team needs to find a way to get shots around the Hurricanes' defenders. New Jersey tends to be solid as far as netfront presence and being able to bang in loose pucks from the dirty areas. It will take that type of goal to beat a solid defensive team like the Canes, and that all starts with actually getting the puck to the net.
Limit high-quality chances against
One area the Devils struggled in these matchups was maintaining continued possession, and Carolina was able to take advantage of that weakness. That's no surprise, as the Canes lead the league with 5.54 takeaways per 60 minutes of play.
The Hurricanes have proven to be efficient at jumping on loose pucks and keeping play in the offensive zone. Carolina can also move the puck up the ice very well, leading to clean zone entries that develop into scoring chances.
The eye test is fairly reliable in this regard. In the November 21 matchup, the Canes got on the board first by coming out of a battle along the boards with possession and then establishing a solid cycle. This led to Jack Roslovic's goal, but eventually New Jersey came out of that back-and-forth matchup with a 4-2 victory.
Looking back to December 27, another 4-2 victory for the Devils, there were still moments of defensive collapse. On the opening goal of the night, Dougie Hamilton and Ondrej Palat failed to get the puck to the neutral zone, allowing the Eric Robinson to convert on a sloppy sequence by the Devils.
The next night, on December 28, it was more of the same. On the Canes' first goal, Carolina was essentially playing keepaway in the Devils' end, getting several clean passes off before Dmitri Orlov beat Jake Allen on a one-timer to tie it up 1-1. Later, Palat once again could not seal off the puck along the boards, leading to a turnover that Sebastian Aho immediately took advantage of, making it 2-2. It was all Hurricanes the rest of the way with a final score of 5-2.
All of the aforementioned plays have something in common: a breakdown by the Devils. Carolina has been able to effectively read New Jersey's misplays and turn them into goals.
The good news is that the Devils have reinforcements coming into the lineup, as Dougie Hamilton hit the ice for the first time since March 4 in the regular season finale on Wednesday night. Getting the number one defenseman back will provide a much-needed boost on both sides of the puck.
The Hurricanes rank second in the NHL with 31.7 shots per game, so it will be no easy task to keep that number down. But that is going to be a crucial element in getting some wins and stifling a high-flying offense.