The New Jersey Devils are in a holding pattern as we head into the final month of the offseason. While they have made some progress with the roster, most would agree they didn't do enough on paper to make themselves true contenders. There are a few reasons for this, mainly that true top-six talents weren't available to the Devils this offseason. On top of that, they still haven't been able to negotiate a deal for Luke Hughes.
On July 2nd, Devils GM Tom Fitzgerald made it clear that Hughes's contract was the offseason's biggest priority. That is why many thought we would know what the contract looks like by now. Instead, Devils fans, and likely the Devils front office, is in a holding pattern until the Hughes deal is finalized.
The Devils should come to Hughes's camp with some comparables. Hughes's agent Pat Brisson is trying to avoid going to low on the AAV, so the Devils need concrete data to show why Hughes is worth what he is worth. Here are a few contract option that show what the Devils are workin against.
Brock Faber
8 Years, $68 million
$8.5 million per season
This is the contract most people are comparing to what Luke Hughes could get. The Minnesota Wild signed Faber to this contract last offseason coming off his Rookie of the Year push, one that Faber beat Luke Hughes but fell short of Connor Bedard. The Wild are a team that like to have cost certainty, and with Kirill Kaprizov expected to become the second-highest player in the league on his next extension, they need to know what they have in terms of spending money.
The Wild gave Faber just over what Jack Hughes signed for on his extension. Faber is making $8.5 million per season on a max eight-year deal.
This is the “ideal” contract between Hughes and the Devils. Signing the youngest Hughes brother to an eight-year deal for under $9 million would keep the Devils in a much better salary cap situation moving forward. There are other comparables in Hughes’s defenseman tier that have similar contracts.
Jake Sanderson signed an eight-year deal worth $64.4 million total. He’s another deal the Devils could put on the table to make this trade happen.
Owen Power
7 Years, $58.54 million
$8.35 million per season
The deal Owen Power signed is very similar to Sanderson and Faber, but it comes with one less year. And that one year can make a huge difference. The first-overall pick in the 2021 NHL Draft, the same draft where Luke Hughes was selected, is now going to be a free agent when he turns 29 years old. Being able to sign his next monster extension before he turns 30 years old will optimize the deal.
If Luke Hughes signed a seven-year deal, he would also be able to sign a new deal before he turns 30. In fact, his next deal would have a full year in his age-29 season, which will optimize his price even more.
Who knows what contracts look like in 2032, when a seven-year deal would end at this point. Maybe Luke Hughes could earn more than double whatever his salary is going to be next season. Heck, maybe it will be $20 million per season for a top defenseman at that point.
If Hughes wastes an extra year making $8 million, he could seriously lower his career earnings. The salary cap is rising every year. If we’ve learned anything from every other sport, it's that when we think we’ve hit the ceiling of rising salaries, we’re actually just getting started. Hughes’s seven-year deal makes a lot of sense for both sides.
Noah Dobson
8 Years, $76 million
$9.5 million per season
This offseason saw some wild movement but on an incredibly small scale. By far the most active team in the league was the Montreal Canadiens. They flipped problematic prospect Logan Mailloux for promising forward Matthew Bolduc, signed bottom-six winger Joe Veleno, and added their big fish defenseman in Noah Dobson.
After trading for Dobson, the Canadiens immediately gave him an eight-year deal. His deal pays him $9.5 million per season. Dobson has a longer history than Luke Hughes, but this could be the number the Brisson team is looking at.
And honestly, we’d be okay with that. If the Devils just want to get this done and sign Hughes to $9.5 million to get him signed for eight years, then it’s just the price of doing business. With the rise in the salary cap, the cap percentage that Jack Hughes signed for is about the same than $9.5 million. Inflation is crazy in the NHL.
This would give Luke Hughes about 10% of the current cap space. Because of the flat cap due to the pandemic, Jack Hughes’s $8 million was around 10% of the cap at the time of signing. Both deals will look great if they turn into the players they are supposed to turn into.
Dylan Samberg
3 Years, $17.25 million
$5.75 million per season
There are fewer and fewer bridge deals in the NHL. Star players almost never sign bridge deals, but there are a few examples that still exist. One happened recently, with the Winnipeg Jets signing defenseman Dylan Samberg to a three-year deal with a cap hit just under $6 million.
Of course, Samberg isn’t Luke Hughes, and he’s older than the Devils' future star, but it makes sense as a comparable. The Devils might even go as high as $6.5 million to fit under their current salary cap situation. A three-year deal makes sense for a few reasons.
Luke Hughes would still be a restricted free agent at the end of the deal. They could agree to a massive deal after that. There is room for a bridge deal, but it would be really unfortunate if the Devils didn’t secure the Hughes brothers for as long as possible.
Bridge deals don’t usually work out, but sometimes it’s the right risk to make. It just feels like the wrong decision for the Devils. This works with a player like Trevor Zegras, who is a risk and might not fit unless they grow. We know Hughes is a long-term part of the Devils’ core. Still, maybe Hughes is demanding the short-term deal, and this is where they will end up.
Thomas Harley
2 Years, $8 million
$4 million per season
And looking at the shortest possible term, we see Thomas Harley of the Dallas Stars. They are in a similar position as the Devils in terms of the salary cap and lack of space. They also want to be in the same position in terms of contention (although the Stars are realistically closer). If the Devils can secure Luke Hughes for one or two years, it comes with risks, but it solves the short-term issue in a significant way.
Imagine if the Devils could get Luke Hughes signed for just $4 million per season. They would have money to spend this offseason to upgrade the team. They also have money to spend next offseason (if it’s a two-year deal like Harley’s).
The biggest issue here is that it opens the door for a Luke Hughes offer sheet. Two years would make way more sense than one year. One year opens Hughes up for an offer sheet from the Vancouver Canucks. They could make a godfather offer to Hughes to pair him with his oldest brother, Quinn Hughes. If the contract is for two years, then it coincides with Quinn Hughes’s free agency.
It’s been a while since the Devils started contract extension talks who knows when. At this point, we think term is holding back these negotiations, but here are a few options to make this work.