On the 32 Thoughts podcast on Monday morning, reputable hockey insider Elliotte Friedman noted that it seems more and more unlikely that the New Jersey Devils are exploring alternative landing spots for $9 million AAV defenseman Dougie Hamilton. This news comes after weeks of Chris Johnston reporting that the Devils' front office thinks highly of Hamilton and would prefer to keep him.
The question surrounding his staying put with the organization isn't "Is he worth keeping around?" or even "Is he worth $9 million per year" at this point -- those are easily answered by a confident "Yes." The question now is "Can Hamilton be a legitimate #1 defenseman on a Stanley Cup-contending team?"
That one is a bit tougher to answer.
There's no denying the defensive leaps and bounds Hamilton took in his first season under Brad Shaw as the Devils' defensive assistant coach. His positional awareness and discipline in activating into the play improved tremendously, something that Shaw has made a name for himself doing with veteran defensemen. As a result, Hamilton put up the strongest defensive numbers of his career while playing the toughest minutes of his career, two things that did not come at the expense of his offensive game (at least once he was deployed as he should have been following his head-scratching benching).
That said, his offensive game did take a bit of a dip from an underlying perspective, even if he did lead the Devils' blueline in just about every single major offensive metric while undertaking more defensive reponsibility than he ever has been.
It should also be noted that, because of that, Hamilton no longer grades out as a #1 defenseman on The Athletic's Stanley Cup checklist, which includes "franchise defenseman" as a parameter. In that regard, the expectation is that a defenseman of that ilk will have a total net rating of +12 between his offensive impact and defensive impact.
Their model had Luke Hughes as the Devils' top defenseman, with a total net rating of +3.6. According to Dom Luszczyszyn, who created the model, he and Hamilton were close, with Luke having the edge offensively but Dougie being better in his own end.
Suffice to say, then, that, given Dougie's age -- 33 -- the best route the Devils have to getting a #1 defenseman is either for Luke to take a very sizeable step forward or for the team to acquire the final Hughes brother, who certainly fits that mold. While Dougie is worth the $9 million in today's cap climate, and it's even possible he sees an uptick with a new regime that has real belief in him, he's likely better served as a #2 or #3 defenseman at this point in time. Luke, who gets paid the same, should be starting to take the reins as the Devils' workhorse blueliner.
It's certainly possible he does so, given that he will be getting a full training camp sans contract negotiations, has another regular season and offseason of training and experience under his belt, and the likely systemic changes that will play to the strengths of his game and those of the rest of the team. We saw a stretch of hockey where he looked like a real game-breaker post-Olympics, so the writing is on the wall for a legitimate breakout.
Even if Dougie isn't the #1 defenseman the Devils need, New Jersey does have potential paths to filling that void, assuming Luke is ready to take the next step in his development and follow in the trajectory of his brothers.
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