The New Jersey Devils are on the brink, one loss away from their season ending in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. As they head into Game 5 in Carolina, the Devils are changing strategies and looking for opportunities to score. In four games so far, the Devils have seven goals, and one of those goals came in double overtime. They are averaging fewer than two regulation goals per game in the playoffs, and that's not a recipe for success.
However, their offensive play says they should have more. According to Natural Stat Trick, the Devils have 13 expected goals in the series. To be four goals below expected is insane, and it's especially bad when looking at Game 2, where Frederik Andersen stopped almost four goals above expected.
The Devils have been the "better" team in Game 3, with the Hurricanes leading in expected goals in Games 1, 2, and 4. However, Game 2 was a chaotic masterpiece that could have gone either way. The Canes beat the Devils by just half of an expected goal. So, by that logic, this series could easily be 2-2.
The difference has been Andersen, who continues to make crazy saves. However, he won't be making any saves on Tuesday night. From the sound of it, he won't be suited up at all. Can that open the door for the Devils?
Andersen left the game on Sunday after a collision with Timo Meier. Carolina Hurricanes fans are very upset with Meier, and we expect him to be treated like a villain on Tuesday night. This injury could change the series in multiple ways. We've seen these pivot points in the past. A goalie change can be the difference between an easy win and a hard-fought loss.
It's these margins that the Devils need to extend this series. Pyotr Kochetkov is coming off his worst season as a professional goaltender, and he has a history of being a terrible goalie in the playoffs. He has a career .870 save percentage in the postseason.
Frederik Andersen's injury could change series for New Jersey Devils
We know what everyone is going to say. The Devils have spent all season making terrible goalies look like Martin Brodeur. It's not an incorrect analysis, but this is the postseason. The Devils need as many advantages as they can get. Playing against a lesser goalie who failed to get his save percentage over .900 this season is ideal.
With all the defensive injuries, the Devils still will have a hard time putting enough pucks in net to save their season. Carolina is too good (even if they're not that good) to fail against the likes of Topias Vilen and Seamus Casey. However, the injury to Andersen at least gives the Devils a chance.