It has not been the start to the season the New Jersey Devils had hoped for. They have gone an unimpressive 2-3 over their first five games. They are 3-3 after a Frozen Frenzy overtime win against the hapless Detroit Red Wings.
These losses have not exactly been close, as they have lost each game this season by at least two goals. While everyone will point to the defense being the issue, the offense is just as much to blame. A problem that has followed the Devils from last season into this one is how they performed at five-on-five. But just how bad have they been, and is there anything they can do to fix it?
The play at five-on-five is holding the Devils back
Before Tuesday night's action, the Devils had scored only six goals at 5v5 this season, one of the worst marks in the NHL. Their struggles at even strength are a major reason they have one of the league's worst offenses. They average only 2.20 goals per game, the sixth-worst mark in the NHL. This is very similar to the 2.76 goals per game they finished with last season. This was also the sixth-worst in the NHL.
Although the lack of scoring is a major problem, it does appear that the Devils are doing a good job of setting up chances. According to Natural Stat Trick, they have a 63.5 CF%, a 60.9 SCF%, and a 61.77 xGF%. This shows that the Devils are creating more positive chances than they are allowing at 5v5. That the strategy they are implementing is working to some extent, and wholesale changes are not needed to solve the problem.
It appears that the Devils' struggles on 5v5 have a lot to do with luck. According to Hockey Reference, they have 14.5 expected goals at 5v5. This is seven more than their actual total. If the Devils are able to keep generating chances like this, the goals will come. It may take a few games, but eventually water finds its level, and their actual stats will start reflecting their metrics.
But if Sheldon Keefe and the Devils coaching staff want to fix the issue faster, tweaking some of the line combinations. Sure, you don’t need to make massive changes, but little things to try to change their luck. Like bumping up Timo Meier to the first line, who is tied for the third-highest expected goals at 5v5 on the team. That type of shakeup might help the offense find a rhythm and turn the expected goals into actual goals.
While it’s concerning that the same issues are plaguing the Devils again, it does not appear to be something that will affect them long-term. A couple of tweaks might turn those missed opportunities into goals.
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