When it was rumored that the Toronto Maple Leafs were listening to calls on 23-year-old Matthew Knies, many New Jersey Devils fans flocked to creating trade proposals surrounding him. Prominent NHL insider Elliotte Friedman -- the most respected pundit in the business -- put it out there that the two teams may have had a discussion surrounding Knies and Simon Nemec.
With a new GM in town, change is afoot for the Devils from a roster construction standpoint. Soon enough, Sunny Mehta will want to put his stamp on the organization, and the best way to do so is by finally addressing the years-long need of a top-six winger. New Jersey finished 32nd in the NHL in 5v5 scoring in 2025-26, something that a true top-six talent would certainly help alleviate.
Knies, in archetype, is a player who fits this bill and would scratch the itch of the crowd that believes added physicality is a necessity as well. At 23 years old, he more than fits the age group of the Devils' core pieces, and he has shown undeniable success while playing alongside prominent play drivers in Toronto.
The problem with Knies is two-fold. Firstly, the price of admission in a trade surrounding him will be excruciating. Players of his ilk -- power forwards who can also chip in offensively and provide physical sparks every shift -- should rightfully cost a king's ransom.
The second, bigger problem is that, well, Knies just isn't the player many think he is. Truth is, when he is tasked with driving play or generating play on his own, he struggles. Immensely. In that regard, he's more akin to Dawson Mercer than he is Brady Tkachuk.
According to Evolving-Hockey, of the 898 players to log at least 50 minutes of even strength time in 2025-26, Knies ranked 870th in individual impact on expected goals (xG). Offensively, he ranked 844th in terms of his isolated impact on xG generation, and defensively, he ranked 759th in terms of his isolated impact on xG suppression. In other words, on an individual level, what Knies did at even strength this season hurt the Maple Leafs far more than helped them, to the point where he ranks in the 3rd percentile of impacts. No Devil was remotely as poor in this regard across the entire season.
It's to the point where Knies isn't even a net neutral when it comes to his effect on the play; he's a net negative. As much as it would be nice for New Jersey to have a plug-and-play power forward who can hang as a complementary F3 to Jack and Bratt, it's genuinely concerning that he is completely unable to do anything himself. Wouldn't it be nice to acquire a player -- likely for cheaper, mind you -- who can contribute to the play positively in all regards? This holds especially true when factoring in the cost of acquisition and his eventual massive pay raise.
With that in mind, perhaps it is prudent to steer clear of the 23-year-old power winger even if the asking price is more reasonable than, say, Nemec and a first-round draft pick. I'm certain there are players who will cost significantly less and provide significantly more value from a possession and chance generation standpoint. As far as top-six trade candidates go, Knies should be pretty far down the list.
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