The modern NFL quarterback is taking about 20-25% of their team’s salary cap. That wasn’t always how it worked. It moved that way over time. In the 1990s, that number was around 19% for the stars like Troy Aikman, Drew Bledsoe, and Steve Young. That number actually went down to around 15-17% when Michael Vick and Peyton Manning signed massive contracts in the mid-2000s. That was the number through the mid-2010s until very recently. No quarterback signed for more than 20% of the salary cap until after the 2020 season.
Since then, salaries have exploded. Seventeen players have signed contracts worth more than 20% of the salary cap. We saw that as soon as one player hit that astronomical number, it became the standard-bearer.
That’s what is going to happen with contracts in the NHL. This offseason, we’ve seen the record for the highest contract broken three times. First, it was Leo Carlsson, who is on nobody’s list for top-10 centers in the league. Because of an offer sheet from the Philadelphia Flyers, the normal hard-nosed negotiations from Pat Verbeek were stopped in their tracks, and he had to sign him to a deal that gives him $18 million per season.
Then, Macklin Celebrini signed for around $400,000 per year more than Carlsson, neither of whom signed for the max eight years. Cale Makar did sign for the max eight years, which is going away in the new collective bargaining agreement starting in September.
In basketball, they have what are called “max” contracts, which are signed by all types of players. It’s not just Jalen Brunson getting a max contract. Immanuel Quickley, Rudy Gobert, and Michael Porter Jr. have their own versions of the max.
This is also coming to hockey. It’s going to be more about availability than talent. Guys like Jack Hughes are signed to amazing deals, with the Devils’ star getting an average of $8 million per season.
Hughes is under contract until the 2029-30 season. That is going to be a very different NHL when it comes to contract prices. We expect expansion to be in place by then and possibly even have had an expansion draft. That is going to insert a ton of extra money into the league. That’s also going to increase the salary cap over time.
The next salary cap could make Jack Hughes a very rich man
Let’s pretend the cap is just going to continue to rise by the same percentage it is growing now. According to Puck Pedia, we’re expecting the salary cap to rise to $123 million by the 2028-29 season. Even being conservative, the cap should easily make it to $145 million by the 2030 offseason.
Under those same CBA rules, the max salary would be $29 million per season. If the Devils want to sign Hughes long-term, they will need to get at least close to that.
Is it worth signing Hughes to a contract that’s more than $25 million? As long as he gets this injury situation in check, then yes.
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