Thursday afternoon, top hockey insider Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet announced that Detroit Red Wings' captain, Dylan Larkin, formally requested a trade out of the organization.
For many armchair GMs who just so happened to be Devils fans, this meant flocking to the trade proposals and whipping up some sort of concoction surrounding Devils' captain Nico Hischier. Conceptually, it makes sense, right? Captain for captain, center for center. Hischier is due for a large pay raise after 2026-27, while Larkin is cost-controlled for the next five years. The latter is friends with the Devils' franchise cornerstone, Jack Hughes, helping him win an Olympic Gold with stellar two-way play in best-on-best action.
This idea of a Hischier for Larkin swap would be disastrous.
Sure, the $3 million or so savings per season would be some added flexibility starting in 2027-28, and sure, Larkin is a perfectly capable -- if not very good -- second-line center on a contending team. The problem is, Hischier is a better center. It's not particularly close, either.
If the only measured proxy between the two is production, they're quite similar. Through his career, Hischier has totaled 0.327 goals per game and 0.801 total points per game. Larkin sits at 0.342 and 0.796, respectively. Undoubtedly, those are comparable numbers, with Larkin holding an edge in goal-scoring but Hischier winning in assists and total points.
That said, the under-the-hood metrics widely favor Hischier, signaling that he is both a better playdriver and better defensive forward. According to Evolving Hockey, Hischier's career expected goals above replacement (xGAR) of 110.3 surpasses Larkin's 102.2 despite the former having played in nearly 180 fewer games. According to HockeyStats' three-year weighted wins above replacement (WAR) model, Hischier ranks in the 95th percentile of the NHL for offensive impact at even strength and the 59th for defensive impact. Larkin sits in the 88th and 42nd percentiles, respectively.
On a combined scale, factoring in even strength impact, special teams, penalties, and finishing, Hischier ranks in the 97th percentile of the league in total WAR, with Larkin placing in the 93rd percentile. The thing is, with these rankings, the disparity between 93 and 97 is actually quite large -- it's a bell-curve model, after all, being significantly more difficult to climb from the 90th to the 95th percentile than from the 50th to the 80th.
Then, there's the matter of age. Larkin is just one month away from turning 30 years old. Age curves are well-documented in the NHL, with a gradual decline for forwards starting at around 28 years old, generally getting sharper as time goes on. Of course, there are exceptions to the rule, but the three-year gap between Hischier and Larkin in age is certainly a factor in projecting future success and ability, especially when Hischier is already the better player.
Finally, there's a matter of the cap hit not really mattering much as time goes on. The NHL is exhibiting growth bordering on exponentiality, with significant revenue increases over the years giving way to a path where high cap hits matter far less. With that in mind, the potential $3 million gap between Larkin's current deal and Hischier's next one simply shouldn't faze Devils fans. The Devils' captain is already $3 million better than Larkin -- as the NHL salary cap continues to increase, that gap will only widen.
The reality is, the Devils would certainly be getting the short end of the stick if they were to even consider swapping captain for captain. Hischier is the significantly better player on both sides of the puck, is several years younger, and the disparity in cap hit means less and less as time goes on.
Besides, it'll all be a moot point anyway once Hischier signs his extension this summer.
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