Through the first eight games of the New Jersey Devils' 2026-27 season, there has been a pretty large discrepancy between the team's underlying process from an analytical perspective and the actual results, causing many, if not most fans to dismiss the under-the-hood numbers as fugazi. Many have argued that the team's underlying results have been strong for multiple seasons while the results simply have not been there throughout the entire process.
The reality is, this is a fabricated narrative, and the team's underlying numbers have not been this strong since 2022-23, the season that ultimately saw them break the franchise record for wins and standings points.
That campaign, the Devils' expected goal share (xGF%) was the second-best in the league behind the Carolina Hurricanes, who ultimately bounced New Jersey from the playoffs in the second round. Still, controlling 55.7% of the xG is a phenomenal output, with an underlying process that rivaled the very best in the league. They had the third-best offensive chance generation in the NHL, pumping out 3.1 expected goals for per hour (xGF/60). To boot, they were also an above-average defensive team, allowing just 2.5 expected goals against per hour (xGA/60), which was good for ninth-best in the league.
Following that historic campaign, the Devils endured a tumultuous 2023-24 season that ultimately saw their two-way excellence from the season prior fall off a cliff, cratering their overall xGF%. By season's end, Lindy Ruff was fired, and along with their worsened defensive results (they were 22nd in the league in xGA/60), their offense dried up too. Ultimately, they generated just 2.5 xGF/60 throughout the season, and ended the 2023-24 campaign with an xGF% of slightly under 50%, 19th in the league.
In their first season under Sheldon Keefe, 2024-25, the Devils' offense didn't generate any more than they were generating the year prior, with the very same 2.5 xGF/60 output. However, some defensive deficiencies got shored up, and the team as a whole was better off for it. The Devils' xGA/60 of 2.3 was eighth-best in the NHL, and ultimately, they had a 52.1% xGF% on the season because of it. That was good for 12th in the league, and, of course, they ended up in the postseason.
Last season, everything was simply disastrous. The offense continued to stagnate, with worsened finishing talent to boot, injuries hit hard, and the defensive strengths disappeared altogether. Come season's end, the Devils' xGF% of 48.6% was good for 20th in the league. Hell, even during the early-season eight-game win streak, there were some glaring underlying issues that some brought to light in order to temper expectations. Of course, they missed the playoffs come April.
Through the first handful of games in 2026-27, the numbers have been extraordinarily confidence-inspiring. They rank first in xGF%, controlling 60% of the expected goals, while producing a league-high 3.3 xGF/60. Defensively, contrary to popular belief, public analytics have them at just 2.2 xGA/60, fifth-best in the NHL. Of course, that is directly contradictory to their .500 record.
Here’s the thing: the Devils’ opponents have unquestionably been subpar to begin the campaign. They’ve had three tests against legitimately good teams in the Utah Mammoth, Ottawa Senators, and Washington Capitals, and the fact is they were outplayed in all three games and lost each of them. Score effects undeniably played an effect in their strong underlying numbers in the losses against Ottawa and Washington, as well as their 6-0 loss against the Islanders. There is far more to prove than the numbers themselves suggest, as anyone who has been pushing the “the process has been a-okay” agenda will tell you — myself included. As with anything, context is a necessary part of the equation.
That said, other teams have played these subpar teams, too, and none of them have dominated the underlying game as much as the Devils did. Score effects are a part of almost every game, regardless of result. The fact of the matter is that the Devils’ underlying process should have garnered better results, full stop. Whether that means a couple of extra goals here and there, one or two more saves, or another victory, the on-ice results have not reflected the on-ice process.
The next streak of games will be telling. The competition level is being taken up a notch and the travel schedule is far from ideal. We’ll figure out if the process holds up against bona fide contenders soon enough.
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