We’re close to a month into the offseason, and the source of every New Jersey Devils fan’s anxiety is waking up each morning with Luke Hughes unsigned. The youngest of the Hughes brothers and the Devils’ future star defenseman is the Devils' most important offseason decision, and it’s taking forever.
Many blame the Hughes contract discussion for the Devils’ inability to make more moves this offseason to upgrade the top six and third-line center. He is expected to eat up a huge piece of the Devils' salary cap.
If the team is adamant to sign him to an eight-year deal, which they should be, they probably don’t have the cap space to make that work. They could make it work with a few moves. Honestly, they would be fine even if they didn’t trade Dawson Mercer or Ondrej Palat because they can put Johnny Kovacevic on long-term injured reserve to start the season.
However, that has an expiration date on it, and Devils GM Tom Fitzgerald would be putting his team in a pickle if he made that move. So, let’s focus on the cap space the Devils have right now.
According to Puck Pedia, the Devils are working with around $6.1 million in space as of Monday. That is with Thomas Bordeleau on the roster. We expect him to go down to the AHL, so let’s say the space to sign Luke Hughes is $6.9 million.
On paper, Hughes is probably worth around $6 million based on how he played last season. But that’s removing the nuance to everything that made last year what it was. Devils head coach Sheldon Keefe asked Hughes to work hard on his defense, and that’s exactly what he did. He became great at stopping opponents from getting huge chances against him on 2-on-1s. Most Devils fans can remember multiple opportunities where Hughes stopped his opponent in his tracks using just his speed.
That focus took away some of the offensive abilities he showed under Lindy Ruff. Now that he has a full season under Keefe, we expect to see more of that. In fact, Hughes had 16 of his 44 points in March. He also had three points in five games in April.
One could tell his comfort level with his role went through the roof. That’s will lead to the Devils paying for future value. That is, if they can get him to agree to an eight-year deal. If they can’t, it would be a failure, but let’s just say the Devils are working with under $7 million for Hughes. How long would Hughes be willing to sign for at that number?
We think he would definitely sign up for that over just one year. He could showcase how good he could play now that his offense is back on track and earn an even bigger contract next season. The new CBA only allows seven-year deals, so he’ll get to unrestricted free agency even faster than in previous deals (although it would be the same as an eight-year deal signed today).
Hughes would likely also take a two-year deal paying him $6.5 million per season. That would bring his contract to even with his brother Quinn Hughes, and it would give the whole family more leverage if everyone decides to play in one city.
Would Hughes be willing to go three years at $6.5-6.9 million?
This is the sweet spot. We can’t see Hughes signing for four years, taking him to the last year of his RFA status, at this relatively low number. We also don’t see any world where the Devils ever agree to a five-year deal with Hughes. That would walk Luke Hughes to UFA status, which just happens to be the same year Jack Hughes is slated to be a free agent.
When it comes to the current Devils cap situation, the best-case scenario is a three-year deal at $6.75 million. Anything beyond that seems unrealistic.
Luke Hughes remains unsigned for a reason, and we have to believe the length of the contract is the main culprit for the breakdown in communications. We're days away from August, and the longer this goes, the more stressed the fanbase becomes. Tom Fitzgerald needs to get this man signed, and a three-year deal might be his only option.