The New Jersey Devils have all but clinched a playoff spot as six games remain on the regular season schedule. With a 98.4 percent chance at finishing third in the Metropolitan Division according to MoneyPuck, the Carolina Hurricanes will most likely be the Devils' opponent in the first round.
The absence of mainstays like Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton, and Jonas Siegenthaler left New Jersey searching for what an optimal lineup looks like. With some tinkering, New Jersey has the pieces to cobble together four lines to run on a consistent basis in a seven-game playoff series.
It all starts with the first line, and there is a solid argument to be made that the Devils' top line has been its best in the last handful of games. Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt, and Stefan Noesen were a force to be reckoned with in the home and home against the Wild. They had a hand in four of the seven total goals scored in those two games, with Hischier's hat trick on Saturday leading the way.
Though their time spent on a line together has been limited to just under 72 minutes across the season, they've made the most of that time together. They've put up a strong Corsi-for of 57.9% at 5v5, outscoring the opponents five to one with a +13 shot differential per Natural Stat Trick.
It'll be important to play both sides of the puck against Carolina's speedy trio of Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis and Jackson Blake. That line has dominated offensively, scoring nine goals and allowing just one at 5v5. That's in addition to a CF of 63.3% and out-chancing the opponent by nearly double, with 85 chances for and 44 against. It makes the most sense to leave Hischier and Bratt together for that reason, as opposed to having Bratt skate on the second line like he's done periodically over the last month.
Carolina's second-best trio is currently made up of Andrei Svechnikov, Jack Roslovic and Taylor Hall per Daily Faceoff, but that is subject to change: Jesperi Kotkaniemi has spent time in Svechnikov's spot, while Roslovic has been tested on the top line instead of Blake. Svechnikov is fresh off of a seven-game absence due to an upper-body injury, so needless to say there could be some movement in the Top 6 before the playoffs arrive.
Keeping that in mind, Sheldon Keefe should consider making Cody Glass's line a true second line by pairing him with Erik Haula and potentially Timo Meier. Though Keefe has tested Glass with other wingers, he and Haula have found the best chemistry so far. The pair has outscored opponents 6-3 at even strength when skating together and outchanced them 35-21.
Meier, on the other hand, brings physicality that would match the opposing line perfectly; Svechnikov is second on the Canes in hits with 134, only one more than Meier's 133. He has not skated with the other two guys at all yet, but the addition of one of the Devils' best players in the last month would surely elevate Glass's line to a higher level -- more than someone like Daniel Sprong could.
Moving down the lineup, Carolina's bottom six is mixed and matched right now as third-line staples Jordan Staal and William Carrier are out with injuries. However, both are expected to be back for the postseason. That pair, along with Jordan Martinook, is responsible for one of the best Corsi-for rates on the Hurricanes at 65.2%, with a shot differential of +47 across 30 games played together. That said, they break even with eight goals for and eight against at even strength, so with the right tools the Devils could find a way to break through.
On New Jersey's side, there has been so much shuffling that there's not an exact formula to figure out the final two lines, as it's changed game to game most nights. It could be a good idea to counter Carolina's third line with a trio that can generate offense as well as command the game physically: Dawson Mercer, Paul Cotter and maybe Ondrej Palat.
Despite having a smaller role recently, Mercer is tied with Noesen for fourth-most scoring chances at 5v5 with 24 in the last 15 games. Only Bratt, Hischier and Meier have more. He's had the challenge of playing with different wingers nearly every game. Palat continues to struggle defensively, but makes the most sense to be the third guy on that line as far as playing style goes.
Cotter, meanwhile, has had ups and downs throughout the season but seems to fit a third-line role better than any other place in the lineup. We've seen his scoring potential, and as the team record holder for hits in a season, he would be a cornerstone in bringing both physicality and offense.
The most common fourth line down the recent stretch has been Paul Cotter, Curtis Lazar and Nate Bastian -- a line that should be disbanded. They haven't produced a goal together at 5v5, but have allowed four against while being outshot 34-17.
Lazar has not been as good down the middle as someone like Justin Dowling, who, in nearly 40 fewer minutes, has six more shot attempts and four more scoring chances in the last 15 games. Bastian has been only slightly better than Lazar but not as good as Sprong, who has six more shot attempts in 65 fewer minutes during that span. It may be time to consider sitting Lazar and Bastian in favor of Dowling and Sprong, with Tomas Tatar being the final piece on that line.
So, here are the lines as we have them:
Bratt-Hischier-Noesen
Glass-Haula-Meier
Cotter-Mercer-Palat
Sprong-Dowling-Tatar
Making those changes mean you lose a lot of grit, which does matter in playoff hockey. But the tradeoff is a group that could potentially defend better and provide better possession than the line Keefe has been running as of late.