The Colorado Avalanche are going to have some very, very difficult decisions to make. As it currently stands, given that they sent New Jersey native Ross Colton to Nashville within the last hour, they have a shade under $7 million in cap space with 11 forwards, four defensemen, and two goalies signed. It's nice not to have to think about goaltending, and adding another forward or two is simple enough under those constraints, but finding a way to add two needle-moving third-pair defensemen in that climate is a tough, tough call.
To add to their woes, one player that needs a contract is pending RFA center Jack Drury, who just scored a career-high in goals (10) and matched his career-high in total points (27) while playing the most minutes of his young career. The 26-year-old pivot is due for a substantial pay raise, with AFP Analytics projecting his next contract to be a three-year, $2.87 million AAV deal. Evolving Hockey has him getting $3.41 million annually for three years.
In my estimations, Drury is a player well worth overpaying that in order to get him in the organization. He has never had a season with an expected goal share (xGF%) of below 52.5%, according to HockeyStats, and has a career xGF% of over 58%. Most of this comes from defensive aptitude, with Drury ranking in the 99th percentile for defensive wins above replacement (WAR) in the last three years.
This defensive success is a product of his two-way IQ and positioning, staying perfectly in passing lanes and being able to generate a good number of turnovers because of it. Offensively, he forechecks hard and pretty evenly plays as a dual threat, even if both of his playmaking chops and shooting are somewhat limited. For a bottom-sixer, that's more than serviceable, especially with the defensive dominance he displays.
For the Devils, a player of Drury's archetype makes a ton of sense if the goal is to free up soon-to-be-extended Nico Hischier a bit offensively and not bog him down with some of the toughest deployment in the league. A la Carolina Hurricanes, perhaps it's time to allow the best offensive players to play offensively while the third line acts as the conventional shutdown line.
If the Devils choose to go the offer sheet route -- something, it seems, that is a bit uncouth in the hockey world -- they can get away with overpaying Drury in order to make it as difficult for the Avalanche to match as possible while still staying under the threshold that results in only losing a second-round pick. If the Devils offer sheet him with a deal worth between $3.5 and $4.25 million, they'll stay in that threshold and make Colorado's life as difficult as possible while still paying a fair wage to Drury.
Drury is worth the cost in today's cap climate, even if estimations have him getting well below that mark. Such a move would also allow the Devils to shift Cody Glass to the fourth line and explore a potential market for Nick Bjugstad, theoretically clearing an iota of cap space and bolstering the depth down the middle. Even if they kept Drury on the wing and played on the third line alongside Glass, that has the makings of a truly elite shutdown line that will completely open up Hischier and his linemates offensively.
Perhaps Colorado's newfound money makes things with Drury work, though he is a bit redundant given that the Avalanche have a center pipeline of Nathan MacKinnon, Brock Nelson, Nazem Kadri, and Nic Roy already. As a fourth-line pivot, Drury would be expensive, especially with Zakhar Bardakhov capable of handling those minutes with a likely league-minimum deal.
Sunny Mehta seems the type to execute a creative move in the name of bettering the Devils. This is just one example of how he can do exactly that.
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