There's been plenty of talk around Johnathan Kovacevic lately. That's mostly been because of the viral soundbite from Sheldon Keefe, where he said, "Kovacevic just needs to play better. That would help."
Kovacevic also recently signed a five-year, $20 million extension with the Devils, so it's not necessarily a surprise that his play may be getting more scrutinized than before. But has he been playing that poorly, especially since Jonas Siegenthaler's injury?
Johnny Kovacevic Has Played Well With Brian Dumoulin
I'm not sure any of us expected this to happen before the season started, but Siegenthaler and Kovacevic were one of the best shutdown pairs in the NHL before Siegenthaler got hurt.
As a pair, they combined to have a 56.36 expected goals percentage (xG%) and gave up just 17 goals in nearly 750 minutes of five-on-five ice time. They allowed just 1.84 expected goals per 60, ranking among some of the best shutdown pairs in the NHL, such as Mikey Anderson and Vladislav Gavrikov.
It wouldn't be incorrect to say the Devils miss having this pair, and Kovacevic struggled for a while without Siegenthaler. From the time of Siegenthaler's injury (Feb. 4) to the trade deadline, Kovacevic posted just a 49.52 xG% without Siegenthaler.
Some, including myself, wondered if Kovacevic was just a Siegenthaler merchant. That looked like the case until the trade deadline, but things have changed since the Devils acquired Brian Dumoulin from the Anaheim Ducks.
No one will mistake Dumoulin for Siegenthaler, but he has fit in well alongside Kovacevic. Keefe has mostly kept Dumoulin and Kovacevic together, and the results have been solid. They have a 55.47 xG% and are controlling well over 50 percent of the scoring and high-danger chances.
They're getting those results a bit differently than the Siegenthaler and Kovacevic pairing, as they're allowing more chances (2.41 xGA/60) but generating more offense (3.00 xGF/60). Still, it shows that Kovacevic probably isn't a Siegenthaler merchant, though the sample is still quite small.
However, an important caveat with the Dumoulin and Kovacevic pairing is Keefe has shifted their deployment compared to Siegenthaler and Kovacevic.
Dumoulin has only played about 20.8 percent of his minutes against elite competition since the Devils acquired him (per PuckIQ). The rest of his ice time has come against mostly the middle of the lineup (49.9 percent), and that affects Kovacevic since he hasn't played with anyone else but Dumoulin since the trade.
That means Keefe has shifted Kovacevic from a shutdown role to softer minutes. That'd also explain why he and Dumoulin are generating more offense compared to Siegenthaler and Kovacevic.
I know Keefe was critical of Kovacevic after the loss to the Ottawa Senators. There's been some sloppy play lately, specifically with his puck management, but he's generally playing well. It doesn't look like he's a Siegenthaler merchant after all, and that probably bodes well for the future.
Did the Devils Make the Right Decision Re-Signing Kovacevic?
Kovacevic's numbers were solid with the Montreal Canadiens, especially since he played a limited role, and many of his micro stats with the Devils suggest his breakout is legit. He's been one of the best rush defenders in the NHL this season, and he's been better than you think in transition.
His numbers with Dumoulin suggest he wasn't a Siegenthaler merchant, even if his deployment has changed. But the biggest question to answer is, what happens to Šimon Nemec and Seamus Casey?
Nemec and Casey's paths to the NHL are blocked, with Kovacevic, Dougie Hamilton, and Brett Pesce all under contract for multiple years. The Devils obviously aren't moving Kovacevic and Pesce, and I don't think they'll part ways with Hamilton yet (we'll see during the 2026 offseason).
Nemec has struggled mightily in the NHL this season, but the Devils were hesitant to move him at this year's trade deadline. Perhaps that changes this offseason, depending on what trade offers come around, but it wouldn't shock me if they don't want to give up on a second-overall pick who just turned 21 last month.
Casey doesn't have Nemec's draft pedigree, but it's easy to see the vision with him. He needs to improve as a defender, but the offensive upside is high. What will happen to either defenseman since Kovacevic has signed? Time will tell, but general manager Tom Fitzgerald will have to sort it out eventually.
The Devils probably made a decent enough decision re-signing Kovacevic. We'll probably get a better idea next season, and I am always skeptical of players having random breakout seasons in their late 20s then getting paydays.
However, his results alongside Dumoulin suggest he doesn't need Siegenthaler to be successful, even if it's come in a different and less difficult role than he had with Siegenthaler. Does he need to play better like Keefe said? Maybe, but concerns about his 2024-25 season being a flash in the pan aren't what they were, thanks to his work with Dumoulin.
Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, except where noted