New Jersey Devils add Paul Cotter to the Jack Hughes line: What Are the Benefits?

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Paul Cotter has been one of the best stories of the New Jersey Devils' 5-2-1 start to the 2024-25 season. He has five goals in eight games — a pace of 51 goals over 82 games. Of course, Cotter isn't going to score 51 goals this season; he won't shoot 33.3 percent for forever.

Still, Cotter has already worked his way up the lineup, from the fourth line to the third and now to a unit with Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt. Cotter, Hughes, and Bratt didn't account for a goal in the team's 3-1 win over the Ottawa Senators on Thursday. But there is potential for this unit to gel.

Can Cotter Be the Devils' Zach Hyman Lite?

Is comparing Paul Cotter to Zach Hyman a stretch? Probably, but there are some similarities. No, Cotter likely won't become a 54-goal scorer or point-per-game player like Hyman has with the Edmonton Oilers.

The more apt comparison for Cotter would be Toronto Maple Leafs-era Hyman, who averaged 24 goals and 50 points per 82 games before signing with the Oilers as a free agent. Cotter has had a similar development arc to Hyman. Cotter, like Hyman, was a mid-round pick; Cotter was a fourth-round selection, while Hyman was a fifth. Hyman spent four years with the Michigan Wolverines but was not a particularly productive player until his senior year.

Between his freshman and junior years, Hyman totaled 35 points in 114 games before exploding for 22 goals and 54 points in 37 games as a senior. Cotter didn't play NCAA hockey, but his AHL production followed a similar trajectory.

Cotter had just nine points in 56 games in his first AHL season, but that increased to 16 in 38 contests during the COVID-shortened 2020-21 campaign — a 34-point pace in a 72-game AHL schedule. Cotter popped in 2021-22 with the Henderson Silver Knights, totaling 19 goals and 34 points in 59 games.

From there, he became an NHLer with the Golden Knights. He produced at a 19-goal pace in 2022-23 but regressed last season, partly due to poor shooting luck.

Now, with the Devils, he's getting some incredible shooting luck to start this season. But even though he's due for regression, he's generating plenty of quality chances. He's second on the Devils in shots on goal and high-danger chances per 60 minutes and first in scoring chances per 60 minutes.

That suggests that even when his shooting percentage levels off, he can probably maintain a consistent scoring rate that puts him on pace to score around 20, perhaps even more.

Admittedly, Cotter becoming even Maple Leafs-era Hyman is a stretch. But if he can become the Devils' Hyman lite, who scores around 20 goals and 35-40 points, that's a win. He's also just 24 years old, so there's probably some room for him to improve more; he's at least showing that it's possible to start 2024-25.

That's why he could be an ideal complement for Hughes and Bratt. They didn't connect for a point or goal in their first game as linemates, but it was just one game. It also might take a while for them to get going until Jack is back in full force, but the fit might be there.

Cotter Moving Up Benefits Meier & Mercer Too

I don't blame Keefe for trying Timo Meier, Hughes and Bratt for the first six games of the season. Their results weren't bad, either; the Meier, Hughes and Bratt line had a 52.05 expected goals share (xG%) before Keefe broke them up in the third period of the 3-1 loss to the Carolina Hurricanes.

There are a couple of problems with that trio, though. One) It's not the best defensive unit. And it showed in their numbers, as they allowed nearly 3.00 expected goals per 60 minutes before getting broken up.

Two) Meier, Hughes and Bratt are all pretty puck-dominant players. It's fine having two puck-dominant players on a line. The Devils have shown that works since Hughes and Bratt have played great as linemates for a couple of seasons. But eventually, there aren't enough puck touches when all three are on the same line.

That's why Cotter could be a better fit with Hughes and Bratt. He's nowhere near as puck-dominant as Meier, and at least to start this season, his best asset has been his finishing ability. Hughes and Bratt can do all the hard work on that line while Cotter is there to clean it up.

Cotter may not only help the Hughes and Bratt line, though. In fact, his moving to that line may help the Nico Hischier line more than anything else because Meier now plays alongside his countryman.

There's no secret to Meier and Hischier's success since the Devils acquired Meier at the 2023 trade deadline. They've logged 416 minutes together — a pretty decent sample size — and have a 57.72 xG% as linemates.

Plus, Dawson Mercer might be the biggest beneficiary of Meier joining his line. He didn't total a point against the Senators, but that was probably his best game of the season. He was setting up scoring chances and probably should have collected a point for his efforts.

The Devils need to get Mercer going, too. He looks better than he did a season ago, but the shot creation isn't there yet; he only has eight shots on goal through seven games. Now, with Meier on his line with Hischier, he has two players who complement him well.

Meier may be a high-volume shooter, but that should, in theory, create rebound opportunities for Mercer. He's at his best when he's cleaning up those dirty goals. And while Meier may be a high-volume shooter, he's also a plus facilitator. Mercer is not the best in transition, but now that he has two play drivers on his line in Meier and Hischier, he might start picking it up. And that's all because Cotter is now with Hughes and Bratt.

Cotter moving up the lineup has its benefits. Obviously, the hope is it works with Hughes and Bratt and that he can become Hyman lite for the Devils. That seems to be his ceiling. But even if he doesn't, having Meier move up a line with Hischier and Mercer could make the Devils' top six more threatening. So there seem to be plenty of benefits of having Cotter in the top six for now.

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