The New Jersey Devils defense has fallen off a cliff, which is the sneaky fact we haven't mentioned during their rough stretch since the Christmas break. We say "fallen off a cliff" because they came from such highs. The Devils' defense was considered the best in the league in December. They were suppressing shots at an insane rate, often keeping teams in single digit shots taken every period. Now, it seems like they are allowing too many shots, many of them of the high-danger variety.
According to Natural Stat Trick, the Devils allowed 2.05 goals against per 60 minutes at 5v5. That was good for fifth in the league. The number has only fallen to 2.12 GA/60, but that's because the goaltending has been worlds better. They are in 17th place since Christmas in high-danger chances allowed per 60 minutes. They were eighth before Christmas. They are allowing more than one full high-danger chance per game at even strength.
Sheldon Keefe has been trying to find the right defensive combinations since the play started to drop off. For the most part, he stayed with Brett Pesce-Luke Hughes, Dougie Hamilton-Brenden Dillon, and Jonas Siegenthaler-Johnathan Kovacevic prior to Christmas. Since then, he's tried a few different combinations, and it got really complicated after Jonas Siegenthaler got hurt, but we think he finally found the right combo.
Lots of changes for the #NJDevils at practice for their lineup. Dowling a placeholder for Hughes.
— Sam Kasan (@samikasan) February 28, 2025
Palat – (Dowling) – Bratt
Meier – Hischier – Mercer
Cotter – Haula – Noesen
Tatar – Lazar – Bastian
Hughes – Hamilton
Dillon – Nemec
Pesce – Kovacevic
(MacDermid) – Casey
Sheldon Keefe found some great defensive pairs at Friday's New Jersey Devils practice.
We've been asking for a Luke Hughes-Dougie Hamilton pairing for a long time. While the defense has fallen off relatively, the offensive has fallen off to such a precipitous amount it's causing the Devils in the standings. They can't keep up with other teams, and the goalies feel they have to dominate just to get a victory.
Putting Hughes and Hamilton together will add some offensive pop for about 23 minutes every game. Will there be risk from a defensive standpoint? Relatively, but Hughes has been great at mitigating that risk with his speed and stick placement.
Meanwhile, a Brett Pesce-Johnathan Kovacevic pairing would give Keefe his ideal defensive pairing he's been missing since losing Siegenthaler. Pesce isn't nearly as good defensively as Siegenthaler, but he will do for now.
Then, there's Simon Nemec and Brenden Dillon. It might feel like Keefe is just taking the other two starters and pairing them together, but it actually makes a lot of sense. While we are worried that Nemec's mistakes will be magnified with a Dillon pairing, the patience of Dillon will really help Nemec build his confidence, which is more important than any on-ice result. He told the Devils' Sam Kasan as much on Friday.
"He's an eager guy who wants to come in and contribute. I pride myself on playing with all diff kinds of partners. ... I think we can be a good pair. Compliment one another. Let him do his thing, use his skill, talent, creativity. Hopefully have some good reps together."Brenden Dillon via Sam Kasan
We think confidence will breed confidence, and it might be exactly what Nemec needs to play like an NHL player again. There were times last year when Brendan Smith was frustrating, but we can't deny how much he helped some of the younger players grow. There is short-term value there.
The Devils must get their act together, and it starts with the forwards, but if they can get offense through defense, it doesn't matter. The team just needs goals at this point.