The New Jersey Devils have a problem. Well, many problems. But one problem has plagued them over the last few years. To summarize the problem, one saying can be used; "1-0, them".
Sens get on the board first...
— New Jersey Devils (@NJDevils) October 13, 2026
The Devils gave up the first goal against the Ottawa Senators on Monday night. It was the Devils' fifth game of the season. It was, incredibly, the fifth time they gave up the first goal of the game.
The Devils allowed two power-play goals early against the Utah Mammoth and Vancouver Canucks. In the season opener against the Flyers, it was a tip in front on a delayed penalty.
In the games against the New York Islanders and Ottawa Senators, the first goals allowed were defensive breakdowns that led to back-door tap-ins. If you played both goals side by side, they would look identical. This includes the goalie in net: Nico Daws. So besides the two games where they allowed the first goal in the second period, the Devils have to be starting off games poorly, right?
The Devils slow starts are strictly a finishing problem
According to a graph making its rounds on X, the Devils actually rate closer to being the best team when it comes to starts. In fact, they have the highest expected goals for amongst any team in the NHL. The only two teams close to the Devils are the Buffalo Sabres and Edmonton Oilers.
I saw the @RachelMHerzog / @brycesalvador graphic on the broadcast tonight & had to see how frustrating it really is. pic.twitter.com/8nbjyiT5AG
— matt donders (@mattdonders) October 13, 2026
According to all of the analytics, the Devils are the best team in the league when it comes to good starts. The only problem is that they do not score first. You can throw all the analytics at the wall that you want; if you do not score, you are not going to win games.
It is only five games. Maybe it is just the small sample size, right? Wrong.
Since the start of the 2025-26 season, the Devils have allowed the first goal 53 times out of a possible 87 times. Sixty-one percent of Devils games start off with them down 1-0. And somehow, it was even worse the prior year.
Why is that such a big deal? Good teams should be able to overcome simple one-goal deficits. It does have us questioning whether the Devils are a good team.
Last season when the Devils scored first, they were 27-6-1. which is a 130 point pace. That would have them as one of the best teams in NHL history. Obviously, the Devils are not going to score first in every game that they play. It is much clearer that they play better when they score first.
When they did not score first last season, they had a record of 15-31-2. That is a 51-point pace. That would put them as one of the worst teams in NHL history if they gave up the first goal every game of the season.
Analytics, simple math, eye test. All say the same thing: The New Jersey Devils have to score first to be successful. When you include last season under Head Coach Sheldon Keefe, it is not a small sample size.
Something that new general manager Sunny Mehta needs to decide is whether it is the system in place that causes the Devils to cave first a majority of the games or is it the core.
In Keefe's first season at the helm of the Devils, the Devils gave up the first goal 42 out of 82 games which is much closer to an even 50 percent. That season, the Devils were still putrid while giving up the first goal, winning only 13 of 42 games they allowed the first goal.
Once again when they scored first, the Devils were 29-8-3 in 2024-25. What needs to be figured out is: Is it the system or the core?
If it is the system, it is a simple fix. Fire Sheldon Keefe. Bring in a coach who is much more responsible defensively and still plays that fast-paced style that gives the Devils hot starts analytically.
If it is the core, it is not a simple fix. Mehta would have to try to move on from some of the core players, perhaps the likes of Dawson Mercer or Timo Meier. Something that will be hard to do with the latter, thanks to former GM Tom Fitzgerald's willingness to give No Movement Clauses.
Whichever the problem is, the Devils and Mehta need to figure it out fast. Another year with Jack Hughes, with a putrid record and reliving last season, will not sit with anyone. Fans, the players, and potentially the eldest Hughes brother.
The Devils have an opportunity to right the ship against a lowly Detroit Red Wings team on Tuesday night.
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