The New Jersey Devils got two important points on Wednesday night, surviving a final push from the Chicago Blackhawks and winning 5-3. It wasn't as easy as it should have been, though. The Devils held the Blackhawks to 24 shots, even though they allowed them to take 13 shots in the third period. The Devils held three different two-goal leads before it was given up each time to make it a one-goal game. Outside of the first goal allowed, a mistake play by Dawson Mercer and a missed pass block by Johnathan Kovacevic left Tyler Bertuzzi all alone on the side of the net, the goals probably should have been saves.
And that's become a theme for the Devils when Jacob Markstrom in net. Prior to his injury in January, Markstrom was discussed as a possible Vezina Trophy candidate. Looking back, it would have been impossible to take it from Connor Hellebuyck, but with all the Devils' injuries, he could legitimately be second on the list if he continued playing like he was.
In December and January, Markstrom had a .940 save percentage at 5v5. Only Logan Thompson and Hellebuyck, the likely 1-2 in the Vezina race, had a better save percentage with at least 10 games played in those two months. Only Thompson has a better goals against average (at least 10 games played) in that same time span. Only Hellebuyck had a better high-danger save percentage at all strengths in December and January (min. 10 games played). (Stats from Natural Stat Trick.)
Jacob Markstrom hasn't been good enough to be the playoff starter
Since Markstrom returned on March 2nd, his save percentage is .847. Only the Flyers Samuel Ersson has a worse save percentage in March (among goalies with more than one start). Meanwhile, Jake Allen has a .943 save percentage in March, good for second in the league among players with at least two starts. if you allow players with one start, Nico Daws would be number one.
The Devils have two starters playing incredibly well and one playing as bad as anyone in the league. It's not even bad considering how the defense is playing in front of him. Yes, the Devils are missing Dougie Hamilton and Jonas Siegenthaler, but it's still not that bad. According to goals saved above average stats, Markstrom has allowed 10 more goals than the average goalie would have. This is over just eight starts!
Markstrom allowing more than one goal per game that he absolutely shouldn't is going to end the Devils' season early. They probably have a playoff spot on lock, but they have the Carolina Hurricanes in the first round. They would get swept with this version of Jacob Markstrom in net.
We wrote earlier that Allen should be the starter for now. The expectation was that Markstrom would work his way back to health and be ready for the playoffs. With three weeks left in the season, the Devils are out of time to rely on that.
If Markstrom has one more bad outing, his season-long save percentage will be below .900. All the good he was earlier in the season would be erased. It's not a problem for next year, as Allen could leave in free agency, but it's just too hard to go into the playoffs with Markstrom in net.
This reminds us of the decision the Devils had in 2018. Keith Kinkaid was carrying the Devils to the playoffs with his great play. Cory Schneider, who was dealing with his own injuries, was virtually unplayable. And just like in 2018, and ironically in 2023, the Devils could start the playoffs with one starter and finish with the hot starter. Schneider won the Devils a game against the top-seeded Tampa Bay Lightning, and Akira Schmid stole a victory from the New York Rangers in 2023. Let Allen steal a series for the Devils this season.