In the words of Kurt Russell’s Herb Brooks in Miracle, “great moments are born from great opportunity.” And great opportunity is exactly what the Devils have in front of them this summer. While all eyes are on the team securing a long-term extension for cornerstone blueliner Luke Hughes, the Devils should also consider another massively high-upside move on their blueline: locking in defenseman Simon Nemec to a long-term extension as soon as he is eligible on July 1st.
Current projections from AFP Analytics suggest Nemec is in line to receive a two-year bridge deal after next season, with an AAV around $2.78 million. Nemec, of course, is coming off a disappointing 2024-25 season with only four points in 27 games. However, the Devils have a golden opportunity to capitalize on his depressed market value and secure a significant piece of their future at a bargain price in a rising salary cap environment.
Cost certainty is paramount for a team with Stanley Cup aspirations. Look no further than the Florida Panthers, who signed long-term extensions with multiple key contributors to their 2023-24 Stanley Cup Champion team, and then watched one of those players they extended, Sam Reinhart, score four goals in the game that secured them a second straight championship.
By signing Nemec to a long-term deal now, the Devils can mitigate the risk of his value skyrocketing if he returns to the form he showed as a rookie, where he appeared destined for a much larger payday, potentially in the $7-8 million range annually. A short-term bridge deal could easily lead to Nemec commanding 10% or more of the team's salary cap in just a few years, as the Edmonton Oilers are about to find out the hard way after failing to lock up Evan Bouchard long-term after his breakout 2022023 campaign
The risk, and reward, of this kind of deal is highlighted by Buffalo Sabres defenseman Mattias Samuelsson's contract. Samuelsson signed a seven-year, $30 million extension (a $4.29 million AAV) in 2022 after his age-22 NHL season. Nemec, a full year younger at 21, already boasts similar or even slightly more impressive offensive production with 23 points in 87 career games compared to Samuelsson's 12 points in 54 games at the time of his signing.
Signing Simon Nemec to a long-term deal should be New Jersey Devils' priority
While Samuelsson's deal hasn't aged well for Buffalo, as he picked up just 14 points last season and was a healthy scratch at times for Sabres coach Lindy Ruff, this shouldn't deter the Devils. If they truly believe Nemec can develop into a legitimate top-pair defenseman, as indicated by drafting him second overall in 2022, a cap hit between $4 million and $5 million for a top-four blueliner is perfectly reasonable in today's NHL and would be an absolute steal as the salary cap continues to increase every season.
Any deal the Devils strike with Nemec also wouldn’t inhibit their ability to make their roster better this summer, either. Nemec is slated to earn just $950,000 on his entry-level deal for the upcoming 2025-26 season, and a long-term extension would not impact the team's cap until the 2026-27 season.
Of course, Nemec must also want to sign long-term and trade financial upside for security. After the season he had, he might believe he can rebuild his value before restricted free agency next summer. Or he may not want to commit long-term to the team after his name came up in the trade rumor mill repeatedly last year. That might mean the Devils will have to include a modified or full no-trade clause to convince Nemec they truly believe he is part of the team’s future, and they do not intend to ship him out of town.
The immediate priority for the Devils will undoubtedly be locking up Luke Hughes, as it should be. But the organization should explore every avenue to improve long-term. Nemec's role within the team is likely to grow next season, especially with Jonathan Kovacevic widely expected to start on LTIR following offseason surgery, and Brenden Dillon's health also a minor question mark.
If Nemec can replicate his strong performance from the Devils’ first-round series against Carolina, his value will almost certainly increase dramatically from where it stands now. Seizing this opportunity to sign him now, while his long-term contract value is slightly depressed, could set the Devils' blueline up for sustained Stanley Cup contention for years to come.