When Timo Meier signed his long-term deal with the New Jersey Devils in the summer of 2023, the expectation was that he would be a scoring machine in the top six. Fast forward to today, and many fans and prognosticators wish he was not on this team. In 146 games played, including playoffs with the Devils, The 28-year-old winger has produced 53 goals with 100 points. While he has had periods where his play has been great, there have been other times where he's not noticeable at all. Even in this campaign, Meier has totaled just 14 goals with 30 points.
While it is frustrating, the reality is that he's had a combination of bad luck as well as playing in the wrong position. With regards to bad luck, it's a matter of him hitting the post a ton as well as pucks just not bouncing his way. His underlying numbers tell you that. Per Todd Cordell of Infernal Access, Among 310 forwards who've logged 400+ minutes at 5v5, Timo Meier ranks 10th in xGF% and 8th in goal share. He is also generating points and expected goals at the highest rates of his Devils tenure.
Meier doesn't have eye-popping totals but that's essentially impossible without PP1 time.
— Todd Cordell (@ToddCordell) January 16, 2025
He has the same amount of 5v5 points as William Nylander and Matt Boldy and *more* than Tage Thompson, Matthew Tkachuk, Brady Tkachuk, Lucas Raymond, and Sebastian Aho. #NJDevils https://t.co/VGeJiOB4hR
Timo Meier is having a better season than we think, and he's about to explode offensively.
Meier is producing at the same level as several top guys in the league. So, even with the bad luck he's had of late, Timo Meier is still positively impacting this team. This brings me to my second point on why Timo hasn't scored more of late and that is his positioning in the lineup. This involves both where he is five-on-five and his role on the power play.
With regards to his five-on-five play, Meier is playing mostly on the wrong side. He's a left-winger playing on the right. For someone who shoots left-handed, it's a bit more challenging to play on your opposite dominant-hand side. In his time in San Jose and even at times last year, when Meier was in the left-wing position, he was at his best. This was especially true in 2022-23 when he combined for 40 goals and 66 points while playing for the Sharks and Devils.
The other issue is where he is on the man advantage. He's the top-scoring threat on PP2 for New Jersey playing alongside guys like Ondrej Palat, Paul Cotter, and Luke Hughes. Unfortunately, the second unit has struggled immensely and there needs to be a shake-up. This includes putting Meier on PP1. Giving him top minutes will help him create even more chances that will lead to goals for himself and the team.
I would personally move Dawson Mercer down and move Meier up. This makes the most sense, given that Mercer needs to be more of an offensive punch on the second unit, while Meier will get a boost from playing with Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt, and Dougie Hamilton. If Sheldon Keefe makes this move, the chances increase for Meier to find his rhythym.
It's certainly frustrating that Timo Meier hasn't fully flourished with the Devils so far. That being said, he still is a top-flight goal-scorer who is on the cusp of breaking out. Once he does, it will make the Devils that much tougher to play against and make them a nightmare matchup for any defense.