The New Jersey Devils have a Simon Nemec problem. Even if the report that he requested a trade isn’t true, that doesn’t solve the true problem with Nemec.
The Devils took Nemec with the second-overall pick in the 2022 NHL Draft over Logan Cooley and Shane Wright, two players who would fill significant holes for the Devils today. He’s shown a few attributes that have shown why he was drafted so high, including his propensity to score in high-pressure situations, but he has serious flaws in his game.
Nemec has the tools to grow into a great player, but there’s big risk to giving him a long-term deal. He’s far from a lock to be a top-line defenseman. There are concerning areas of growth, including his defensive IQ in his own zone. He’s caught staring at the play at least once a night, and it turns into a high-danger chance against.
We hope that part of his game gets fixed because he’s asking to be paid like that part of his game doesn’t exist. The numbers for his next contract have been all over the place, and there are no real concrete reports for what he wants, but it is clear his contract will be, at a minimum, $6 million per season on a long-term deal, but it’s likely to be more, maybe even north of $8 million a year.
That’s a problem when the team is already paying Dougie Hamilton and Luke Hughes $9 million, Brett Pesce $5.5 million, Johnny Kovacevic and Brenden Dillon $4 million, and Jonas Siegenthaler makes $3.4 million. That’s already $35 million for the defense. If they add another $6+ million, that pushes their defense to over $40 million. That would likely push the Devils into the top spot for most expensive defense, and they don’t even have Quinn Hughes on the roster.
What if another NHL team solves the Simon Nemec problem for them?
A trade is obviously on the table for the Devils, but what if they wait for a team to make a move? We hear every year that teams could go after offer sheets, but the Devils are uniquely at risk for an offer sheet. They have two high-leverage restricted free agents in Nemec and Arseny Gritsyuk. Gritsyuk isn’t likely to sign, but it’s possible he gets a deal he can’t say no to.
As for Nemec, if any team comes to him with a contract he appreciates, he’s probably signing the offer sheet. If the Devils match, great. If not, he’ll take the team that’s willing to commit to him.
And with that offer sheet comes compensation to the Devils. According to the recently released offer sheet parameters, if a team offers Nemec a $6 million contract for five years, the Devils would get a first and third-round pick. If someone gave Nemec a contract worth north of $7.17 million, the Devils would get a first, second, and third-round pick in 2027.
While those aren’t perfect returns, especially if it’s coming from a team like the Carolina Hurricanes or Dallas Stars who are expected to be near the top of the league again, it does give the Devils significant assets to turn them around into another trade for a top-six forward.
The most ideal scenario is either a Nemec signing or a trade they have control of, but this scenario allows them to make the move they need to make without hurting feelings.
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