5 issues that could derail New Jersey Devils defense
The New Jersey Devils defense is getting all of the hype after signing Brett Pesce and Brenden Dillon. However, this unit could still be a house of cards if everything doesn't fall correctly in place.
The New Jersey Devils defense has been the talk of the NHL Offseason. We've heard some hot takes about this unit. After signing both Brett Pesce and Brenden Dillon, this defense looks stacked. Some ask whether this is a top-five unit in the NHL. Some have asked if this is the best defense the Devils have had since they won the Stanley Cup in 2003 (it's not). They've even brought Sheldon Keefe into this, celebrating that this is much better than any unit he's had in Toronto.
Is this the best defense Sheldon Keefe has ever had? pic.twitter.com/tIBOIajmnz
— Michael Amato (@amato_mike) July 16, 2024
Of course, it is take season. People are going to come out with their spiciest opinions because not a lot is happening. We have a lot of time to be... creative.
With all this hype, we have to come out and be realistic. The Devils defense is good, and it can be great. This truly can be a top-five unit in the league. It has that ceiling. However, a ceiling isn't guaranteed, as the Devils learned very clearly last season. We want to be aware of what could go wrong with this defensive unit and prepare.
1. Injuries
We cannot predict injuries, but we wanted to bring it up. Last season, Jonas Siegenthaler, John Marino, Dougie Hamilton, and Colin Miller all missed significant time. The Devils played 11 defensemen last season. They thought they had depth, but that depth was tested, and it forced some players to play hurt, and they were ineffective.
Some of the Devils' depth was forced to play immediately, like Nemec when Hamilton got hurt. Others didn't work out the way they had hoped, but the Devils depth is different this season. Adding Johnathan Kovacevic and Nick DeSimone (re-signing) to the roster gives them two legit NHL defensemen without question. Add in Santeri Hatakka, Topias Vilen, and Seamus Casey in the AHL, and there is serious depth here.
2. Dougie Hamilton's return from injury
Back when Dougie Hamilton first suffered his torn pectoral muscle, many were optimistic that he would make a full recovery. He is relatively young still (31 years old), and it shouldn’t be at that point where his body starts to fail him. However, this is a different kind of injury.
In our reaction piece to Hamilton’s injury, we went through the history of defensemen who have suffered a similar injury. The scariest example is Matt Dumba. He suffered a torn pec in December 2018. Since then, he’s gone from double-digit goals every year and a 50-point ceiling to struggling to hit 25 points. Last season, he had 12 points.
This is the scariest reality here. What if Hamilton feels fine but he isn’t the same? The problem here is that so much of Hamilton’s offensive ability comes from his incredible shot. There are few, if any, defensemen who can hit the puck like Hamilton with force and accuracy. If that isn’t at that same level, which it likely won’t be, then the Devils have a $9 million problem.
Hamilton does bring other elements to the table outside his shot. He’s still a supreme offensive creator, but losing the shot really hurts. This also impacts the shoulder, which could lead to further re-injury, but we won’t discuss that further as it’s more of a hypothetical.
3. Jonas Siegenthaler was a flash in the pan
Jonas Siegenthaler was not good last season. That’s the truth. He had a bad season. We can make some easy excuses for him. The system wasn’t best for his skills (more on that later). The injured foot really impacted his movement and decision-making. It seemed like he was tentative and unconfident after the injury. It led to way too many goals against.
We go into next season with Siegenthaler as the clear weak link on this defense. Honestly, that’s pretty fine. We expect Dillon to take his spot on the top line with Hamilton (at least at first). That leaves Siegenthaler playing with either Simon Nemec or Brett Pesce. He’s had a really good stretch with other defensive defensemen in the past, but it makes sense to make Siegs-Nemec the bottom pairing to protect them both and open up opportunities.
We’ve seen two very different versions of Siegenthaler. We’ve seen this uber-confident player who knows passing lanes before the puck is off his opponent’s stick, and then there was the guy from last season. He was constantly out of position, and players did not have to try to hard to get into a good position around the net.
This year cannot be a repeat of last season. The Devils traded John Marino so they removed at least one question mark from the blue line. The one that’s left is Siegenthaler. We do think he’ll bounce back, but we won’t pretend it’s not a risk.
4. Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec don't take steps forward
Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec were fine last season. They didn’t have great seasons, but they definitely weren’t terrible. For rookies, they were fantastic. Luke Hughes finished the season as a finalist for the Calder Trophy. Nemec solidified a spot on the NHL roster moving forward. The two former top-five NHL Draft picks were building on great careers.
And if that keeps building, even incrementally, then everything will be great. However, what if we get the Hughes and Nemec we got last season? While they were good for rookies, that doesn’t translate as “good for sophomores.”
There is some expected growth here. Hughes was making way too many mistakes in his own end, and his ability to pass the puck out of the zone under pressure was not the best. Nemec was a two-way defenseman, but he clearly left some of his upside on the table to do what was best for the situation. We hope to see more of the dynamic skillset that led to Nemec going second overall.
Again, we need to see at least incremental steps forward. Hughes must be smarter with the puck in his own zone and the neutral zone. Nemec needs to be more than just a solid defenseman and he has to showcase his offensive skill. They both need to be better on the power play. This is something to watch under…
5. Ryan McGill is back
So technically this isn’t a hypothetical and it already happened. The Devils did not change out the defensive coach or the goaltending coach, which left a lot of Devils fans scratching their heads. However, McGill was a great coach in 2022-23. What happened last season? He changed his system, and we’ve been on record opining about how it was devastating to this defense as a whole.
First of all, the Devils focused on poke checks for just about everything. Hitting does get a defenseman out of position, but if it’s done right, it knocks a guy off the puck and makes them think twice about where they skate. Nobody is calling for head hunting, but if the poke is your only defense, it’s going to not work out.
The Devils also added hitters this offseason. Not only are their two new defensive acquisitions (three with Kovacevic) all hitters of some discipline, Stefan Noesen and Paul Cotter add that element as well.
The other defensive style that has to change is the call for both defensemen to skate behind the net when the puck is there. We can’t confirm that was the strategy, but it happened so often, and with every defenseman, it feels like it had to be. If it was, then McGill needs to forget that strategy ASAP. If that wasn’t the directive and the players were both skating behind the net on their own, constantly leaving the front of the net wide open for a direct pass, then the players need to be held accountable.
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