How much is Dawson Mercer's next contract going to cost New Jersey Devils?

New Jersey Devils general manager Tom Fitzgerald has done a very good job over the past few years when it comes to locking down his main guys to favorable deals. From Nico Hischier to Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, and Timo Meier, Fitzgerald has solidified the team's core for years. Fast forward to the present, and he now has another young player who needs a new deal, Dawson Mercer. Mercer has developed into a very talented, two-way forward with top-six potential. However, he is coming off a down year, making contract talks interesting.

On the one hand, you want to lock down your young talent and keep him as long as possible. On the other, you may not have to splash the cash or term to keep someone who fits the team's style of play and culture. It depends on the organization's projection of Mercer's game moving forward, the team's salary cap, and what is fair for both parties. Fortunately for everyone involved, there are some recent comparables that they can go off of and find common ground. Before we look at them, let's see what Mercer is forecasted to get.

Per AFP Analytics, they have a contract projection for both a short-term or bridge deal and a long-term deal. Mercer is projected to get two years at $3.8 million AAV on a short-term deal, which is pretty good, all things considered. When looking at a long-term contract, the 22-year-old is looking at a deal of six years at an AAV of $6.5 million.

Mercer is coming off a down year with just 33 points (20 goals and 13 assists) in 2023-24. It was a combination of bad luck, poor lineup placement, and the team's inconsistencies. He also never seemed to build consistency off the positive efforts. Mercer ended up with a sophomore slump in his junior NHL season.

Despite this, Mercer is still favored by the organization, and there's no doubt he'll be going anywhere anytime soon. He's been a very reliable and accountable player who has yet to miss a game in his young career. Playing 82 games in each of his first three seasons is impressive, to say the least.

He is not going to break the bank. However, it may make more sense for both sides to focus on a bridge deal. As mentioned earlier, there are a couple of recent contracts given to players similar to Mercer that can make it easier to find common ground. The first is Ottawa Senators forward Shane Pinto. Pinto and the Senators agreed on a two-year pact at a total of $7.5 million. That gives him an AAV of $3.75 million.

The other example is Columbus Blue Jackets forward Kirill Marchenko, who signed a three-year deal at $11.55 million, an AAV of $3.85 million. When looking at both deals, there is a way to get something done with Mercer at a bridge deal. That would be the best way to go so that Mercer stays in New Jersey, makes more than what he was, and will still be able to get a more lucrative contract in two or three seasons. For the Devils, a bridge deal would allow cap flexibility for other signings down the road and a chance to keep a top-six forward under control for a few more years.

All signs point to a deal being agreed upon before the team reports to training camp. Fitzgerald has had a great deal of success getting team-friendly deals for the guys he wants to keep. There's no question that when it's all said and done, Mercer will remain a Devil for years to come.