Way-too-early New Jersey Devils defensive line combos prediction
The New Jersey Devils completely revamped the defense this offseason. How do we predict new head coach Sheldon Keefe will land on line combos on Opening Night?
The New Jersey Devils made wholesale changes to the defense this offseason. They sent Kevin Bahl to the Calgary Flames in the deal that solidified the goaltending. Jacob Markstrom was an essential piece, but losing a young defenseman like Kevin Bahl could hurt. Then, they made the surprising move of trading John Marino to the Utah Hockey Club. The Devils used one of the second-round picks they got in the deal to select goaltender Mikhail Yegorov with the 49th-overall pick.
Now that the Devils essentially lost two NHL defensemen for two goaltenders, they had two big holes on the defense. They also let Brendan Smith walk in free agency, lost Cal Foote after he was arrested for sexual assault, and their prospect reserves have been depleted after losing prospects Shakir Mukhamadullin, Nikita Okhotyuk, and Reilly Walsh to various trades.
However, they made multiple moves to replenish the defensive corps. They traded for Montreal Canadiens defenseman Jonathan Kovacevic, signed Brett Pesce, Brenden Dillon, and Colton White, and they re-signed Nick DeSimone and Santeri Hatakka. Let's flash forward and see where the Devils will look as far as pairings on opening night.
Predicting the New Jersey Devils defensive pairings on opening night.
Pair 1
Brenden Dillon - Dougie Hamilton
The pairing of Dougie Hamilton is very important this season. We've seen some players lose some of their impact after a torn pectoral muscle. The Devils have to find the right pairing for him, at least off the bat. The assumption is they will try Jonas Siegenthaler since that was who he spent most time with in the previous two seasons. Last year, Hamilton spent 252 5v5 minutes with Siegenthaler and just 96 with other defensemen (according to Natural Stat Trick).
Usually, we'd agree with you. Continuity is important when a player is coming back from a major injury. However, there are two major factors at play here. One, Siegenthaler was awful last season. Without Hamilton, everything was negative for Siegenthaler (xGF%, CorsiFor%, high-danger chance percentage, goals for vs. goals against, etc). The other factor is Lindy Ruff isn't here anymore. The man who made the decision to put them together is gone.
Meanwhile, the Devils did just sign Brenden Dillon to a decent deal. While some might think this was an overpay, it was necessary to give this team a complete defense. Dillon hasn't averaged over 20 minutes per night since the COVID-shortened 2019-20 season, but we think that Hamilton-Dillon doesn't need to break 20 minutes this season, at least while Hamilton plays his way back to full speed.
Line 2
Luke Hughes - Brett Pesce
One of the biggest question marks around this defense is how Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec will grow this season. There are many factors to how that question will be answered, but one of the clearest impacts to that is who they are partnered with. Luke Hughes is the most interesting decision.
There are five options for Hughes if the Devils want to keep the lefty-righty dynamic (which based on the roster, one would assume they do). Hamilton, Pesce, Kovacevic, DeSimone, and Nemec. Hamilton makes sense with someone who has more focus on defense, so that leaves four options.
While many might think the right pairing is Nemec, we think the Devils paid Pesce a premium price so he can be a long-term pairing for Luke Hughes. Why not just start that pairing now. Pesce isn’t an offensive defenseman, but he has enough offense to compliment Hughes’ supreme skill. Meanwhile, we expect Hughes’ entire game to take a step forward, and pairing with Pesce will teach him the best ways to play.
These two will drive the Devils on a nightly basis. They could eventually take over first-line minutes. If Hughes takes a major step forward like Devils fans hope, he could immediately become a 21-minute-per-night player. Having him on the ice that often will give him ample opportunity to make a game-breaking play. Having a safer player like Pesce with him gives Keefe the confidence to do that.
Line 3
Jonas Siegenthaler - Simon Nemec
Jonas Siegenthaler’s contract says he has a pretty long leash, but the actual composition of this defense does not. The Devils put commitment into their defensive roster. They locked into eight NHL slots for defensemen, and that doesn’t include Kurtis MacDermid who could play defense. With that said, Siegenthaler’s NHL spot is not guaranteed. We don’t think he’ll go to the AHL, but there’s a chance that another player could steal his spot. If that happens, the Devils could either play Pesce on his off hand to get Kovacevic into the lineup or to call up Hatakka.
That won’t happen to start. Siegenthaler is going to get a chance to show that last year was a blip on his career or that it was due to injuries. And he gets to play with a phenom to boot.
Nemec looked amazing last season. He was focusing on the two-way game because that’s what the Devils needed, but he could take a few more chances and really let his offensive game shine tied to Siegenthaler.
On top of everything, Nemec’s pure skill would make up for any mistakes Siegenthaler makes in positioning. Nemec has great recovery speed. We don’t expect Siegenthaler to be as bad with it as last season, but Nemec has everything to play well no matter the situation. If Siegenthaler is what he was two years ago, this could be the best third pairing in the league. Even if he isn’t, this will still be a very good line for 15 minutes a game.
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