What If New Jersey Devils Drafted Yaroslav Askarov Instead of Alexander Holtz?

The New Jersey Devils have been on an odyssey to find the heir apparent to Martin Brodeur as their franchise goaltender. They tried in the 2013 NHL Draft when they traded the ninth-overall section to the Vancouver Canucks for Cory Schneider. Schneider was brought in to eventually replace Brodeur, who would depart after one season playing alongside Schneider. 

Since Brodeur’s departure, nineteen goaltenders, including Schneider, have made at least one start for the New Jersey Devils. Their names ranged from the obscure (Scott Clemensen returned to make one start in 2014-15; Aaron Dell, Eric Comrie, Andrew Hammond, and Gilles Senn each made starts between 2020 and 2022) to the stalwart (Mackenzie Blackwood’s 143 starts). The Devils even signed a goalie, Corey Crawford, who would retire before ever playing a game in a Devils' uniform.

However, the most interesting inflection point in this decade-plus-long saga was the 2020 NHL Draft. After another disappointing follow-up to the team’s miracle 2017-18 playoff run, the Devils held the seventh overall pick. At the time, there was speculation, on this site and elsewhere, that the Devils could take KHL netminder Yaroslav Askarov with that pick. Askarov was eventually drafted 11th overall by the Nashville Predators and has since gone on to become the best goalie prospect in the world, leading the AHL’s Milwaukee Admirals to 18 straight wins this season.

Instead of taking Askarov, with the seventh selection, the Devils chose winger Alexander Holtz. Holtz is a frustrating player who has been unable to stay in the coaching staff’s good graces long enough to be given a top-six role. He has also been the target of trade speculation as the piece the Devils could dangle to get the 1A goalie they passed up in Askarov—a 1A that will surely be much older and more expensive than Askarov, who is on an entry-level contract right now.

So, what if the Devils had taken Askarov instead with the 7th pick in 2020? Let’s take look at the seismic ripple effect this one decision had on the last few years of NHL history, starting with the 2020 Draft and cascading into the present day.

The 2020 NHL Draft Would Have Looked Different

If the Devils took Askarov with the seventh pick, it would have sent the first round careening in a different direction. The Sabres, who wanted a scoring winger, likely would’ve taken Holtz over Jack Quinn with the next pick.

This would’ve caused Quinn to tumble out of the top 10. Nashville, now without Askarov, may instead look to take a center in Anton Lundell, or… Dawson Mercer, a player that certainly fits former Predators GM David Poile’s draft modus operandi to a tee. Mercer is the kind of gritty two-way player Nashville has always prioritized, and so they take him with the 11th pick in this alternate universe. 

Florida likely breaks Quinn’s fall at 12, sending Lundell tumbling. The Devils two picks at 18 and 20 are thrown in a blender with Mercer off the board. So, with everyone being shifted down, let’s draft Braden Schneider, who was taken at 19, for the Devils. With the 20th overall pick, they might take a now-fallen Lukas Reichel.

The other wrinkle of drafting Askarov at 7 is that the Devils don’t likely use another pick on a goalie in the 2020 Draft, which means they don’t select Nico Daws in the third round (84th pick). Let’s instead for fun draft them the next NHL player taken, Justin Sourdif (87th pick).

While the draft implications are substantial, the even bigger impact is felt in the years to come, as the next several years of the Devils franchise and NHL history are altered incredibly by this single decision.

The Next Few Years (2020-2023)

The Devils signed Crawford just two days after the 2020 Draft. He still retires shortly into training camp the next season in this alternate history. The 2020-2022 goalie rogues gallery still plays out as it did in our reality, resulting in the Devils stumbling to the #4 pick (Luke Hughes) and the #2 pick (Simon Nemec) in consecutive years. 

A scenario where the Devils signed Linus Ullmark in July 2021 instead of Jonathan Bernier would have been lovely. In hindsight, that was a disastrous mistake. That alternate universe misses out on the beautiful bromance of Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman, but maybe instead, MacKenzie Blackwood is on the receiving end of Ullmark’s celebratory post-game hugs.

However, it is probably unrealistic to expect the Devils to have committed four years to Ullmark instead of the two they committed to Bernier. 

Instead, the first large deviation from the Devils goalie acquisition strategy comes at the 2022 NHL Draft. Askarov signed his entry-level deal with Nashville in May of 2022. In this alternate timeline, he does the same with the Devils and joins Utica for the 2022-23 season. At the draft, not wanting to block their future franchise goaltender, the Devils elect not to trade substantial assets for 1A goaltender. They bypass the trade that sent Vitek Vanecek to New Jersey from the Capitals for a third-round pick and a swap of 2nd rounders. 

There’s still a chance the Devils take Michigan University standout Seamus Casey at 37 instead of 46 overall, but perhaps they should instead draft Fraser Minten, who went 38th to Toronto. Alexander Suzdalev, whom the Capitals took with the third-round pick, was recently ranked as the 14th-best prospect in the Capitals system. He’s a Devils prospect in our timeline. 

Instead of trading for and then extending Vanecek, the Devils instead look to fill their 1A goalie next to Blackwood in free agency during the summer of 2022. There were some interesting names available, but the Devils probably steer clear of Darcy Keumper or Jack Campbell and the five-year deals they got. Instead, let’s give them back Eric Comrie, who Devils management liked enough to claim back in 2020. He signs a two-year deal, similar to the one he got with Buffalo in reality.

Meanwhile, in Nashville, Dawson Mercer has his breakout 56-point 2022-23 season on the Predators instead of the Devils. The alt-timeline Predators aren’t as disastrously bad as they were in the real ’22-’23 season, which means Poile doesn’t spend his last trade deadline frantically selling off everything that wasn’t tied down to his roster. Mattias Ekholm doesn’t go to Edmonton. Poile doesn’t pull off the Tanner Jeannot heist against Tampa. Alt-timeline Kyle Dubas doesn’t dump Mikael Granlund on San Jose in the Erik Karlsson deal because Granlund is still a Predator. Heck, maybe alt-timeline Kyle Dubas is still the GM of the Maple Leafs.

Florida, which has struggled to incorporate 2020 draft pick wing Quinn into its lineup, is not nearly as dominant in this universe in 2022. They come in third in the Atlantic Division instead of their Presidents Trophy-winning run in the real 2022. Unlike Lundell, who is a natural fit on the Panthers and helped them fill out their center depth, Quinn struggles in a top-nine role. Florida, needing to find a top-line wing, still makes the all-in trade for Matthew Tkachuk in the 2022 offseason, but instead of Mackenzie Weegar going to Calgary, Jack Quinn joins Jonathan Huberdeau in the trade.

During the 2023 season, an Eric Comrie-lead Devils do not set the franchise record for points in a season. But a November injury to Mackenzie Blackwood opens the door for Askarov to make his debut. The Devils make the playoffs in third place in the Metropolitan Division behind a dynamic offense and a strong rookie season from Askarov. Tom Fitzgerald rewards the upstart Devils by trading for Timo Meier at the deadline, moving Braden Schneider, Fabian Zetterlund, Justin Sourdif, a first, and a conditional second to San Jose.

Askarov leads the Devils to a surprise 1st round victory against the Rangers in his first taste of postseason play. But they are still beaten by the Carolina Hurricanes, who go on to be steamrolled by the Presidents Trophy winning Florida Panthers in the Eastern Conference Finals. Weegar, who was exceptional for Calgary in the real 2023 season, helps lead a dominant Panthers team to a Stanley Cup victory in 2023.

In the 2023 offseason, knowing they need to improve their 1B behind Askarov, the Devils trade Eric Comrie to San Jose Sharks for Kaapo Kahkonen. Calgary, unable to give Yegor Sharangovich top-six minutes at the expense of the recently acquired Jack Quinn, does not ask for him back from the Devils in the trade that sends the Devils Tyler Toffoli. Instead, Kevin Bahl is paired with the third-round pick to replace the top-four minutes the Flames need without having acquired Weegar. Sharangovich remains with the Devils in a third-line role.

That brings us to the most recent developments in the Devils goalie odyssey, the 2024 season and trade deadline.