What's taking the New Jersey Devils negotiations with Dawson Mercer so long?

With all players set to report to training camp a week from now, one important player is without a contract: Dawson Mercer. Although there are theories abound about who might crack the opening night lineup, the consensus remains that the New Jersey Devils roster is locked and loaded. The one player without a contract is a huge fixture on this year’s team and is expected to be one of those locks. What is that worth? Value aside, the question shouldn’t be what Mercer is worth, but what is taking so long? 

This summer’s restricted free agent class was loaded with many high-value players waiting for their respective GMs to set the market on their value. Anton Lundell, a 22-year-old center who amassed 17 vital points during the postseason, signed a six-year, $30 million contract with a $5 million cap hit. Florida saw his 35 points during the regular season and his contributions during the postseason and rewarded him with a contract and term. 

Right Wing Kirill Marchenko played for a basement dweller team this past season in Columbus, yet amassed more points (42), earning himself a three-year deal at a $3.85 million cap hit. More of a bridge deal and less money for a player who flashed his scoring talent throughout the 2023-2024 season. What must be taken into account here is the fact he is two years older than Lundell at 24. Also, Columbus is in a situation where they do not know what they are and who they will be moving forward. They are in the process of building a new foundation, focusing on rebuilding through the draft with a new coach and general manager at the helm. These are important factors when judging Marchenko's contract.

Martin Necas is another highlight of the restricted free agent class. For his play, Carolina rewarded him for his services the best they could. Carolina’s cap situation is less than desirable at the moment and the best they could offer was a minimal term (2 years) with respectable money ($6.5 million cap hit) for a contributing player who hasn’t hit his ceiling yet. Necas’s point total was higher than both Lundell and Marchenko and was paid accordingly.

Player production matters and player contract decisions are based on what they’ve contributed in their last season as opposed to what they accomplished one or two or three seasons ago. The condition of the franchise and timing are of great significance as well.

Florida is winning right now, yet they are focused on ensuring their window of contention continues into the next generation of players. Lundell will be a part of that next generation. Columbus is in a bad spot with more unknowns than knowns. It is not the best time to give out long-term contracts to players that you are unsure about. If Carolina could give Necas the money and term he wanted, they would've. But they could not. Maybe they will figure it out in two years. This summer, they could not. 

Eeli Tolvanen is another example who had a respectable season with 41 points this past season on a non-playoff team in Seattle, an improvement over the 31 points he had in only 61 games played in 2022-2023. He was rewarded with a two-year deal at a $3.48 million cap hit. 

Along with Mercer, Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider, and Thomas Harley are big-time players awaiting big-time deals. Like the Florida Panthers, the Dallas Stars are a winning team interested in keeping their contention window alive as long as possible and maintaining their level of competitiveness. A big-bodied, first-round draft pick with strong scoring capability, Harley put up a respectable 47 points on the Star's blue line last season. With Esa Lindell entering the final year of his contract, it would be a perfect time to lock up the young defenseman Harley with term considering his draft placement, production, and potential impact moving forward. 

The Detroit Red Wings, however, are on their last legs, and the Yzerman regime knows it. They have to get it right and break their playoff drought this year; otherwise, change from top to bottom will be a foregone conclusion. Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider are two players more likely to move the needle in the right direction. Similar to Palat’s deal, the Andrew Copp contract looks less than desirable at this point, but the fact of the matter is Raymond and Seider will get paid. More likely than not, Seider will get term in his deal, while Raymond will get a similar deal to Michael Rasmussen with greater annual value. 

Similar to Detroit, the New Jersey Devils are on their last legs under GM Tom Fitzgerald. If the team cannot find success, change will occur. The difference is with talent. The Devils are a team with a locked-up core and a considerable amount of skill. They need a second-line winger to play with Hughes, but they may already have that in the making with Arseni Gritsyuk and Lenni Hameenaho. Mercer will provide the necessary body of skill this season. However, beyond this season, the situation becomes complicated. If a deal gets done with terms, will that impact the future contracts of Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec? Possibly. Probably. Definitely.

In all likelihood, the Devils will lock Mercer up with a one-year “prove it deal”. Mercer, like the others listed here, has proved he is capable of contributing on a nightly basis. The problem is the Devils can’t just give out another term deal to a forward because they’ve already done so with Hughes, Palat, Bratt, Meier, and Hischier. They just can’t do it without impacting their ability to sign both L Hughes and Simon Nemec. The Devils term contracts affect every other deal they make or don’t make, and Mercer is an example of that. In this case, it’s a painful truth, but it is true. 

The Devils will want Mercer to be a part of their future, but the circumstances don’t allow them to make it happen, at least maybe not yet. That's why it has taken so long. The Devils want something they cannot have. Whether that is paying Mercer below his value or giving him an undesirable bridge deal, the fact is something unappealing is taking place and the inevitable is being delayed as much as possible. Getting a one-year deal done now and circling back next year may, unfortunately, be the most appropriate option at the moment. Is it ideal? No. Is it better than nothing? Absolutely.