New Jersey Devils captain has been discussed in the same conversation as the Selke Trophy as if it’s his birthright. Since he joined the league in 2017, his two-way prowess has always been celebrated. There were a few tough offensive seasons to start, but he was always playing decent defense. When he took a step towards being one of the top centers in the league, it seemed like he was going to be the Selke winner as soon as Patrice Bergeron stopped hogging the award.
The year Bergeron retired, Hischier finished second in Selke Trophy voting. Last year, when Selke favorite Aleksander Barkov was lost for the season, it opened another door for Hischier to win.
Unfortunately for Hischier’s goals, the Devils were not good last season. By in large, it looked like Hischier was playing down with the Devils, but the truth is, he was one of the only consistent players on the roster.
Still, there was no way he was going to win the Selke last season. He did finish in the top 10 in voting, but nobody had him in the conversation with Montreal Canadiens center Nick Suzuki. Suzuki had an incredible season, putting up 101 points and a ridiculous +37. His 72 assists were near the top of the league, and he did this while playing all situations. He even had crazy competition, which is usually the argument for Hischier to be in the Selke conversation.
Nothing against Suzuki, but a lot of things went his way this season. When looking at his numbers a little closer, everything was going in for him and his line, while the same was not the case on the other end.
Hischier and Suzuki played almost the exact same amount of time on 5v5 last season according to Natural Stat Trick. Hischier played 1,201 minutes, and Suzuki played just two more. In those minutes, Hischier beats Suzuki in on-ice chances, chances against, xGF, xGA, high-danger chances, high-danger chances against, and faceoff percentage. In fact, Hischier led the league in faceoffs won.
Where did Nico Hischier lose to Nick Suzuki? Goals and goals against. And it wasn’t close.
Suzuki's lines were on the ice for 72 goals. Hischier's line was on the ice for 37! Hischier was on the ice for more shots and close to half as many goals.
Suzuki's on-ice shooting percentage was 12.44%. If Hischier was on the ice for the same, his line would have scored 75 goals last season. Instead, they scored 37.
Looking deeper, we see what happened. It comes down to quality of chances. Hischier was on the ice for 809 low-danger chances, and that led to just three goals. Suzuki was on for 89 fewer such chances, and his team scored three times as many goals. On the other end, the Devils allowed 10 low-danger goals on just 682 low-danger shots. Meanwhile, Suzuki was only on the ice for four low-danger goals against.
When we upgrade it to medium-danger chances, Hischier was on the ice for just 12 goals. Suzuki was on for 36 medium-danger goals. That's the difference right there. The Devils were only scoring on high-danger chances, and that was still a volume game.
We don't need to get into things like offensive zone starts (Suzuki started 335 times in the defensive zone versus Hischier, who did it 472 times), but we do need to acknowledge the facts. Hischier got screwed by bad luck and failed finishing by Timo Meier and Dawson Mercer. This line should have had twice as many goals with how much he was setting people up, and Hischier has to finish more, too.
So while there's a little hyperbole in the headline, there are plenty of metrics that show Hischier had a better season than the Selke Trophy winner.
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