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Sunny Mehta would be smart to "overpay" Arseny Gritsyuk

The New Jersey Devils hired Sunny Mehta to be their new general manager in part because he had a great eye for analytics. Once he gets his hands on the statistics for Arseny Gritsyuk, he'll realize a long-term contract is the only route forward.
New Jersey Devils right wing Arseny Gritsyuk (81): Ed Mulholland-Imagn Images
New Jersey Devils right wing Arseny Gritsyuk (81): Ed Mulholland-Imagn Images | Ed Mulholland-Imagn Images

The New Jersey Devils have so much to do this offseason. Recently, we listed the top priorities for Sunny Mehta now that he was named GM. At the top of his list are finding the right price for Nico Hischier, which he has apparently has already started working on, and figuring out the goalie situation. 

With so much on his plate, there is something he can get done quickly. Nothing is happening with Jacob Markstrom while the Stanley Cup Playoffs are going on, and the Devils captain isn’t eligible for an extension until July 1st. Wildly, that’s still more than two months away. 

However, Arseny Gritsyuk is eligible for an extension today. Gritsyuk signed a one-year entry-level contract last offseason after the Devils drafted him in the fifth round of the 2019 NHL Draft. He is likely the last player drafted by the late Ray Shero who will enter the NHL, and he’s a special player at that. 

Number nine on Mehta’s list of important tasks, signing Gritsyuk will bring an interesting level of clarity to the Devils. If they sign him to a very short term deal, it likely doesn’t do much to hurt the team’s salary cap. However, signing Grits to a long-term deal makes the most sense for the future of this franchise.

Gritsyuk was really good this season, but his counting stats weren’t there. He finished the season with 13 goals and 31 points. That’s not worth a ton of money, even with a rising salary cap. 

However, the underlying stats were insane. 

Arseny Gritsyuk deserves a long-term deal from the New Jersey Devils

The biggest surprise was Gritsyuk’s defensive play. As someone coming from the KHL, the expectation was that his defensive game would be awful. Instead, he was an asset on the defensive end. He caused a lot of turnovers, and he was not shy during a board battle. Gritsyuk was surprisingly physical for the Devils this season.

His offense needs some seasoning, but that will likely come with time. Gritsyuk wasn’t used to the size of the NHL ice sheet, and he was learning his role as the season went on. So, his 13 goals aren’t getting anyone out of their seat, but we expect him to be a 20-30-goal scorer in the near future. 

So, what’s that worth?

Honestly, the Devils should approach Gritsyuk with a contract that’s six years long and see what price he thinks that’s worth. If the number is at or below $6 million, they should sign it. A six-year, $30 million contract could end up being the deal that leads to Sunny Mehta’s contender. 

If Gritsyuk wants to bet on himself, we’d be weary of giving him that shot. If he breaks out next season, then the Devils are on the hook for a much bigger deal. An analytics mind like Mehta knows that it would be smart to lock in on Gritsyuk now. 

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