There is no reason to worry about the New Jersey Devils third line

The New Jersey Devils did not get the result they wanted against the Columbus Blue Jackets on Thursday night, and it had some people pointing to the lack of contributions from the team's bottom six. But diving into the numbers shows that the line of Paul Cotter, Erik Haula, and Stefan Noesen should start producing very soon.

San Jose Sharks v New Jersey Devils
San Jose Sharks v New Jersey Devils | Elsa/GettyImages

The New Jersey Devils sat back and watched Jack Hughes put together one of the performances of the year against the Columbus Blue Jackets. He dominated play from the opening faceoff to the final buzzer, even though it came in a loss. He recorded 13 shots on net, and he attempted a few more. Only Claude Lemieux has ever taken more shots on goal. 

The dominant performance just reminded Devils fans that a lot of their offense has come from Jack Hughes and his line over the past month. Since November 20th, just four players have more than two goals at 5v5. Nico Hischier leads everyone with five goals. The next three players all play on the same line. Ondrej Palat and Jesper Bratt both have three 5v5 goals, and Jack Hughes has four. 

On paper, the Devils are desperately missing secondary scoring. Paul Cotter has zero goals in that time. Stefan Noesen has one 5v5 goal. Tomas Tatar has none, and he was a healthy scratch during this stretch. Nathan Bastian hasn’t done a thing since he returned. It’s been rough on the scoreboard, but there are some numbers that show everything should be fine, especially for that third line.

Let’s look at the numbers from Thursday night. Cotter, Noesen, and Erik Haula were third, fourth, and fifth on the team in xG against Columbus. Haula was .01 away from Luke Hughes, who actually scored a goal and was robbed of another. Combined, they should have had two goals as a line. Elvis Merzlikins was just insane.

Over the past 14 games, Haula is tied with Jack freaking Hughes for individual high-danger chances. Do we think a Jack Hughes chance is the same as an Erik Haula chance? No, but it does show Haula is getting to those dirty areas and should see more goals soon. 

Also, it seems like the Devils have Paul Cotter focusing on different things at the moment. He leads the team over the past 14 games with 50 hits. Only seven forwards in the entire NHL have more hits than Cotter over the last 14 games. 

Truthfully, and we know how much people hate to hear this, but the Devils 5v5 shooting woes are mostly bad luck. Outside of Palat, Hischier, and Bratt, the Devils are shooting way below their averages. Haula is shooting less than 4% since November 20th. Noesen is shooting 6% after shooting a team leading 26% over the first 21 games of the season. Cotter is obviously at 0%, getting stopped on all 18 of his shots over the last 14 games.

This is a rough stretch for the third line, but they are on the precipice of an explosion. The puck luck will turn if they just keep doing what they are doing. Could the Devils make a trade to bolster the middle six? Sure, but they don't have to right now. The third line will get going, and they haven’t even played that badly. 

Statistics via MoneyPuck and Natural Stat Trick.

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