Timo Meier leads Connor McDavid in this surprising and important statistic

Timo Meier comes so close, but he can’t finish his chances this season. It’s been a narrative that’s hard to ignore. From empty nets and rebounds to rush opportunities and breakaways, Meier hasn’t been able to finish on his best chances. It’s one of the reasons why he has just 36 points this season.

Meier does have 21 goals this season. That’s not what most fans want, but he should get to 25 by the end of the season. That’s at least… something. With Meier being held off the top power-play unit for most of the season, he’s been trying to make the most of his 5v5 opportunities. 

However, the “missed opportunities” has been a mantra for his career with the Devils. He tries to impact the game in many ways, adding a physical element that most of the forward group shies away from. He’s still an important cog when he’s not scoring, but scoring is why he makes close to $9 million per season.

What they want from him is a guy who gets to a scoring area and finishes. Well, he’s definitely doing half of that. 

According to Natural Stat Trick, Meier leads the Devils in individual xG. For those who aren’t familiar, Inside the Rink does a good job at explaining what ixG is and how it’s calculated. 

"Individual expected goals are, well, exactly what they sound like; an individual players expected goals. An informal definition of individual expected goals is this: expected goals generated from a player’s personal unblocked shot attempts (the puck coming off their stick). "

Nick Piccolo, Inside the Rink

Meier has 20.89 individual xGs this season, which is more than Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon, and every other NHL player not named Anders Lee. Yes, this is a statistic that's led by Islanders legend Anders Lee. Still, with 20 ixGs, Meier should have way more than 11 5v5 goals.

The difference between Meier and Lee is volume. Meier is planted in front of the net. Lee has 257 individual chances, but that’s led to 113 individual high-danger chances. Meier has just 80 high-danger chances, but he has 356 total chances. 

Those chances have led to 165 shots. His 5v5 shooting percentage is 6.6%. To even get to someone with close to his goals with as low a shooting percentage, you have to look at Evan Bouchard and Rasmus Dahlin, who both have eight 5v5 goals this season. 

Meier should be better. He was brought to the Devils to finish, and he’s done the opposite of that. One might say that Meier is primed to dominate the league next season, but we’ve seen this story before. He might just be what he is with the Devils, and that’s fine if you ignore his salary.