Tuesday marks 15 years since one of the most exciting days to be a New Jersey Devils fan. This was before scoops were the most important part of sports fandom. This was a time when trades would legitimately break on Sportscenter instead of Twitter. Devils fans either got surprised by the news or had texts from friends telling them to turn on the TV. They were welcomed with a reality that's not usual for New Jersey.
While other teams make the move for stars, the Devils usually avoid those high prices and instead try to build them. This time, it was the Devils' turn to cut the line. Ilya Kovalchuk was heading to the New Jersey Devils. The former 50-goal scorer was going to bring high-powered offense to a team that's always been built on a defensive structure and a legendary goaltender.
"When you can add a player like that who can put the team over the top, that shows what management thinks this team’s capabilities are."Zach Parise to the New York Times
The New York Times Dave Caldwell told the story of the excitement in the room that day. He spoke of the excitement in the room, including from Kovalchuk himself. He called the Devils "first class." A "legendary" locker room that had won three Stanley Cups. Then-head coach Jacques Lemaire said that Kovalchuk should get as much publicity as Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby, who were taking the torch left behind by the stars of the 90s and early 2000s.
We all know what happened next. The Devils ended up losing in the first round of the 2010 NHL Playoffs to the Philadelphia Flyers, but they convinced Kovalchuk to ignore the calls to return to Russia and the contract offer from the Los Angeles Kings to sign a 17-year deal, that was eventually revised at the behest of the NHL to a 15-year deal worth more than $100 million.
This was clearly not the Devils of old. Lou Lamoriello knew in a post-lockout world that he had to pay to have the best players in the world locked in. After the contract, the Devils were very good, eventually making the 2012 Stanley Cup Final. They beat the Flyers and Rangers along the way, setting up one of the great runs in this team's history. Even with the loss to the Kings in the Final, the moment when Adam Henrique ended Henrik Lundqvist's best chance to win a Stanley Cup lives on in our memories.
After that run to the Final, Zach Parise left for Minnesota and the NHL went into another lockout. This one only lasted a few months, but it gave Kovalchuk a chance to play in Russia. That taste of life at "home" was something the Devils couldn't compete with. Kovalchuk returned for the 2013 shortened season, but he wasn't the star that helped the team make the Final. He scored 11 goals in 37 games. He only had two power-play goals but led the league with four shorthanded goals. It was a bizarre season from Kovalchuk.
And then, he left. Kovalchuk shocked the world when he "retired" from the NHL and left for the KHL. Who knows what the details were and how much he was paid to say goodbye to nine figures worth of American dollars, but the deed was done. Kovalchuk would never wear a Devils sweater again despite a decade left on his contract.
That leads us to asking, what if Kovalchuk was never traded to the Devils? At the time of the trade, the Devils were 35-18-2. They were on pace with 107 points. The Devils ended up winning the division that season with 107 points, so not much of a difference there. They did get upset by the Flyers in the first round. Kovalchuk wasn't bad (two goals and four assists in five games), but the Devils just couldn't get out of the blocks.
The Devils actually missed the playoffs in 2011, which is absolutely insane. That John MacLean coaching run needs a scientific study. The real loss here is 2012. The Devils don't make the Stanley Cup without Kovalchuk. He scored eight goals in that run, tied for the league playoff high. He was working through some injuries, but his effort was unmatched, and the Devils forechecking system under new head coach Peter DeBoer was working very well.
One year later, Kovalchuk was in Russia. Was one good run worth all the pain the Kovalchuk era brought? How important is an Eastern Conference Championship?
If the Devils never make this move, so many dominoes never fall. The Devils probably do make a different trade that season. Some of the huge names in the Kovalchuk realm that never ended up moving were Rick Nash (then of Columbus) and Nathan Hornton (then of the Panthers). Nash would have obviously been a star in New Jersey, but it took two years after the Kovalchuk trade for the Jackets to pull the trigger, so who knows if those rumors meant anything.
We have to assume the Devils end up with another middling player in 2010 during the season and then they make a move in the offseason. The free agency was strange, as outside Kovalchuk, the top names were a 38-year-old Ray Whitney and a 35-year-old Saku Koivu. The Devils probably don't find their fire power there.
Nash, honestly, is the only guy that makes sense. The league was going through a youth movement at the time, and the Devils needed to make the move for Kovalchuk, or risk being left with nothing. They were looking ahead, hoping to convince Zach Parise to sign a long-term extension. They couldn't do that without a corresponding move (and it turned out that didn't matter).
To skip ahead, we don't think the Kovalchuk trade impacted Parise's decision to go to Minnesota. There was so much more to that decision that was out of Lou Lamoriello's hands. If Lamoriello offered Parise a max contract, maybe he stays, but sticking with what's realistic, Parise had 2012 on his calendar as a pivot point for his career always.
So, either the Devils get Kovalchuk (or Rick Nash) and then deal with the consequences, or they stick with the team as is.
It's probably very similar end for Martin Brodeur. He would start to fall off, but this time, he has much less fire power in front of him. Without the 2012 run, his legacy looks much different. He does have all the accolades and records. That won't change, but his perception is one that failed in the postseason after the first half of his career. He would never lose the mantra that he was a product of Stevens and Niedermayer, and this run would look worse in totality. Kovalchuk and the 2012 run really helped Brodeur's legacy.
The Devils would have avoided the complete "tear it down" rebuild if it wasn't for the Kovalchuk trade. They might have even traded Parise for a haul if he refused to sign a long-term extension. With the 24th-overall pick (the pick dealt in the original Kovalchuk trade), they could have drafted either Kevin Hayes, Brock Nelson, or Evgeny Kuznetsov. With the pick they lost because of the contract they offered Kovalchuk, they could have drafted Kevin Fiala or Dylan Larkin instead of John Quenneville. If they traded Parise to the Wild before 2012, they could have used a first-round pick on Tom Wilson, Tomas Hertl, or Andrei Vasilevskiy. They might not have traded Parise, but we think Lamoriello would be open to more if Kovalchuk and his contract weren't there.
There's also Lou himself. Five years after the Kovalchuk trade, Lamoriello made the move nobody thought was possible and stepped down in New Jersey and signed on as GM of the Maple Leafs. If the Devils aren't facing increased scrutiny and an upset fanbase, would Lamoriello make that move or would he keep being the team's GM forever? Ten years since he left, he's still running teams around the NHL.
Heck, does Jeff Vanderbeek sell the Devils if it isn't for the pressure coming from the Kovalchuk trade? The timing is probably different, as the NHL put immense pressure on him to make a move. He was in debt, and that contract couldn't have helped, but Josh Harris and David Blitzer came in and gave the Devils financial security.
The Kovalchuk trade impacted so much about the Devils. It's likely without it, the rebuild or retool changes shape, and the Devils start years earlier. That means there's no Nico Hischier or Jack Hughes on today's roster. Do with that what you will, but it's impossible to not understand how important this trade was to the trajectory of the New Jersey Devils.