The New Jersey Devils are hoping to make the playoffs next season. If they improve even marginally in a few major statistics, they will have a solid shot at achieving that goal.
There is a very clear goal for the New Jersey Devils in 2016-2017: Make the playoffs for the first time since their Stanley Cup run in 2011-2012. Last season, the Devils were in the hunt for a majority of the season, and finished with 38 wins. The Devils succeeded in a bunch of the major factors in predicting playoff appearances, and nearly played well enough to make it. However, their severe struggles in a few of the major statistics caused them to miss the playoffs. The Devils are not far from being a playoff team, and with their offseason acquisitions and interior development, they may be able to fix their key struggles and get over the hump for the first time in five years.
The Devils have one of the best goalies in the NHL, and he was a big reason they were able to compete for a playoff spot for most of the season. Cory Schneider finished last season 27-25-6 with a 2.15 Goals Against Average and 0.924 Save Percentage. His Save Percentage was tied for 4th out of all goalies who played at least 41 games and his GAA was 3rd out of all goalies with that same qualification. He finished 6th in the Vezina voting. Save Percentage is a big factor in determining team success, and the Devils should expect to continue to have a strong mark in that statistic as long as Schneider stays healthy. The Devils were tied for 9th in the NHL in team Save Percentage, and were the only team in the top 11 in Save Percentage to not make the playoffs. They also had the fewest total goals per game (combining goals for and goals against) in the league, something that is also a statistically significant factor in determining playoff berths. 10 out of the 16 playoff teams were below average in total goals per game. The Devils were able to increase variance in low scoring games, and were able to pull out wins. The Devils finished two wins better than their Pythagorean Expectation, and keeping the score low helped them manage some wins against more talented teams. Schneider played a big part in that. Goaltending is a strength for the Devils, and having a perennial Vezina trophy contender in net should keep them in the playoff conversation.
The Devils’ Special Teams were strong, and success in Powerplay Percentage and Penalty Kill Percentage are statistically significant predictors in a team’s playoff probability as well. New Jersey was 8th in Penalty Kill Percentage and 9th in Powerplay Percentage. 14 of the top 17 teams in Powerplay Percentage made the playoffs last year, and 10 of the top 16 teams in Penalty Kill were playoff teams. The Devils should look to continue their strong Special Teams output, as it will help increase their playoff odds.
Despite New Jersey’s poor goal scoring abilities, they were actually about average in shot conversion, another factor in predicting playoff probability. 8 out of the top 10 teams in shooting percentage made the playoffs last season. The Devils were 12th in shooting percentage, so finishing ability was not a huge problem for them. This skill likely helped them on the Powerplay, where getting shot opportunities is a bit easier. Their shot opportunities increased, and they were able to score at a reasonable level due to their solid shot conversion abilities.
The Devils did a lot right last season, and that kept them in the playoff hunt for most of the season. However, they had a few major flaws that prevented them from ultimately making the postseason.
The Devils were last in the league by a lot in shots on goal last season, and shots are a big statistic in determining team success. The Devils racked up 2003 shots (about 24 per game), which was 435 shots below league average and 262 below the 29th ranked team. 11 of the top 15 teams in shots made the playoffs, and the number 1 ranked team eventually won the Stanley Cup. They really need to improve in that statistic, and the acquisition of Taylor Hall is a great start to that. Not only is shots a big predictor in playoff probability, but so is puck possession, measured by Corsi or Fenwick percentage. Those stats are measured ratio between shot attempts (which include shots on goal, shots that miss the net, and shots that are blocked) by a team and total shots, and the difference between the two stats is that Corsi factors in blocked shots while Fenwick does not. The Devils were 29th in the NHL in Corsi ratio. The top 9 teams in Corsi ratio all made the playoffs last season, as well as 11 of the top 15. Corsi ratio is also a great predictor in playoff success, and the Stanley Cup champs were 2nd in that stat. The Devils really need to improve their shot total and puck possession in order to make the leap into becoming a playoff team.
New Jersey will also want to limit their penalties a bit more this season. They were 11th in the league in penalties taken, and only 5 of the top 10 teams in penalties taken made the playoffs. That category is statistically significant, but not as high a priority for the Devils’ in their attempts to raise their playoff odds, especially with how strong the Penalty Kill is.
The New Jersey Devils have playoff aspirations for this season, and if they stay strong in goaltending, Special Teams, and shot conversion, they should be right in the mix. The Devils postseason hopes will come down to whether they can improve their shot total and puck possession. According to a logistic regression model predicting playoff probability based on 10 years of NHL data, if the Devils play at the same level they did last season, they should expect about a 47 percent chance of making the playoffs. However, if they can improve their shot total even to the level of the 29th ranked Arizona Coyotes at 2265 (a little over 3 more shots per game), as well as improving Corsi ratio to 48.2 percent, breaking the bottom third from last season, their playoff probability would be estimated at about 87 percent holding other factors constant. Increasing shot total would likely increase overall goals per game, so even changing the Devils mark in that stat down to league average, they would still be looking at a 61 percent playoff probability.
Next: Taylor Hall and Adam Henrique a Great Fit
The Devils made some solid moves this summer, and those changes combined with interior development of young players make improvement look very possible. If the Devils can improve their key weaknesses from atrocious to regular bad or better, they will have a good shot at ending this postseason drought.