New Jersey Devils: What to Expect Defensively

Last year for the New Jersey Devils was absolutely awful.  In a recent article I took a look at what the Devils did to improve offensively this off-season and what we can expect. Now its time to take a look at the blueliners.  Cory Schneider had the worst year of his career, the offense was almost non-existent, and the defense really wasn’t much better. However, there was one bright spot.  Damon Severson.

The New Jersey Devils didn’t make a lot of changes defensively this year.  Prior to the expansion draft Ray Shero made a move to acquire Mirco Mueller.  With a lack of defensive options on the market it looks like Shero decided to help the defense by adding offense.  The Devils outside of the 1st line had trouble possessing the puck and its hard to play defense well when you’re constantly in your own zone.

Depending on what happens early at camp I imagine we’ll be looking at defensive combinations resembling something like this:

Greene-Severson

Moore-Santini

Mueller-Lovejoy

We’ll take a look at each of these defensemen and a few others who could compete for a spot like Dalton Prout, Michael Kapla, and Yaroslav Dyblenko.

Damon Severson

(These charts can be found here. You can look at Devils players and they stack up against other players or the roles they are expected to fill.)

Damon Severson performed well considering how bad the other 5 on the blue line were.  He had the best CF% of any Devils defender at 50% and his CF% Relative was 4.3.  Essentially, the Devils were a lot better with Severson on the ice than they were without him.  This makes sense when you look at how bad the rest of the Devils defensemen actually were, but it also looks great for Severson considering he’s currently only 22.

As you can see from the chart above Severson already fulfills a lot of the expectations of a #1 defenseman.  While those numbers are compiled from 2015-2017 he’s really only lacking goals and ice time.

I expect Severson will take a big step next year.  While it would have been nice to add Kevin Shattenkirk, maybe the Devils truly had their #1 RD on the roster the whole time.  The major question for next year is what happens with all of the defensemen other than Severson.

Andy Greene

Andy Greene has been a stalwart defensively for the Devils since he entered the league in 2007. He certainly provides great leadership but I think its safe to say at 35 he is well past his prime. That isn’t to say he can’t have a bounce back year and perform well on the top pair but losing Adam Larsson clearly hurt him last year.

Greene posted a CF% of 46.7 (not good) and a CF% relative of -1.5.  Greene has pretty clearly lost a step or two but I think he’d fit well as a 2nd pair defenseman.  Unfortunately the way it looks now is that he’ll have to continue to play on the top pair unless Mueller blows everyone away at camp.

Steven Santini

This is a show me season for Steven Santini.  He played well in his limited showings last year and hopefully has what it takes to slide into the Devils top 4 and stay there.  Realistically, there isn’t any other option.  Either Santini or Ben Lovejoy will have to play on the 2nd pair and Lovejoy was arguably one of the worst defensemen in the league last year.

Santini had 2 goals and 5 assists in only 38 games last year and his CF% was slightly below 50.  He’s only 22 years old and should take a big step this year.

John Moore

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Moore is a former first round pick who had his best offensive year of his career last year in New Jersey. He scored 12 goals (11 even strength) and had 10 assists (8 even strength).  Given his career numbers I would expect a regression in goals. If he continues to get 2nd pair playing time he should be able to sustain his assist numbers.

Despite posting the best offensive numbers of his career, his possession totals were not good.  With a CF% of 46.9 and a FF% of 45.5, Moore clearly had trouble controlling the puck while on the ice.  However, he posted good totals with the New York Rangers back in 2014-2015 while playing a more limited role.  Moore fits better in the role of 3rd pair defenseman but on this team he’s likely to have to play on the 2nd pair.

Ben Lovejoy

When Lovejoy came over from Pittsburgh I thought it was a great signing.  He could slide into the 3rd pair role and provide depth and a veteran presence and even eat up minutes in a larger role if needed.  Unfortunately the transition from Pittsburgh to New Jersey did not go well for Lovejoy. Playing all 82 games for New Jersey and averaging over 20 minutes a game, Lovejoy played top-pair minutes.

Despite logging similar minutes in Pittsburgh, that success did not carry over to New Jersey. Lovejoy posted a CF% of 43.2 and a FF% of 44, the worst numbers of his career.  Clearly the change of scenery from Pittsburgh to New Jersey had an extremely negative effect on Lovejoy.  Lovejoy is one of the greatest examples of how a lack of offense can make good to average defenders perform poorly.

Hopefully for Lovejoy the Devils added offense can help him turn those numbers around.  With Severson and Santini both at the NHL level and the team showing a clear desire to give younger players a shot, it’s time to let them both play top minutes though.  Lovejoy can provide a leadership role and is a more than capable 3rd pair defenseman.

Mirco Mueller

Ray Shero made a move right before the expansion draft trade freeze to acquire Mirco Mueller from the Sharks.  This was an interesting move and had some clear implications.  The Devils chose to protect Mueller over Jon Merrill. An expected move after trading a 2nd and 4th round pick for him.

Mueller is a former 1st round pick who was trapped under Pete Deboer in San Jose.  I’m not saying its the same exact situation as Adam Larsson, but its clear that Deboer is harder on young defensemen than most.  Not only is Mueller a young player with a ton of potential who hasn’t really gotten a shot in the NHL, but he’s also Swiss.  Adding Mueller could add a level of comfort for #1 overall pick Nico Hischier.

Mueller played 39 games at the NHL level in 2014-15 and hasn’t gotten a chance since then playing only 15 games total over the next two years.  Mueller’s CF% and FF% were both 50.3 in 2014-15 which as we know at this point is a drastic improvement over other Devils blueliners.

San Jose was ready to move on for Mueller. Hopefully a fresh start in New Jersey gives him the opportunity he needs to succeed in the NHL.  With veteran Andy Greene on the roster (a player who didn’t establish himself in the NHL until 25) hopefully he can take Mueller under his wing.  Its clear the Devils expect Mueller to play substantial NHL minutes with what it took to acquire him.

Ideally, the Devils could give Mueller a shot on the 2nd pair but I don’t know that a Mueller-Santini pair is something any of us want to see.  Ideally Mueller could be paired with a veteran defenseman that he can count on rather than throwing two young blueliners together and hoping for the best.

Prout, Dyblenko, and Kapla

One of these three will be kept at the NHL level as a 7th defenseman.  I would imagine it would be Dalton Prout.  Prout is serviceable enough to fill in if there’s an injury to one of the Devils top 6 but at 26 and having been in the NHL since 2011 there’s really no need for the Devils to send him to Binghamton.  They need a 7th blueliner at the NHL level and its better to let some of the younger players get experience in the AHL so they can develop according to schedule.

Both Dyblenko and Kapla are interesting players.  Dyblenko decided to come over from the KHL this year where he has posted respectable numbers, most recently with Spartak Moskva.  It seems likely that unless he blows management away at camp that Dyblenko will start at the AHL level where they can see how his game translates to North America.

Kapla is the rare case of a college free agent signing with the Devils.  He played 5 games at the end of last year and spent 4 years at Umass-Lowell before that where he was a Captain his final 2 years.  Kapla is another player who will have the chance to make a good impression at camp but will likely start the year at AHL level barring any unforeseen circumstances.

Best Case Scenario

Ideally, the Devils can and will give the younger defensemen as many minutes as they can handle.  The additions of Marcus Johansson and Nico Hischier should provide a much needed boost to the top 6.  That should reflect through the lineup as players like Miles Wood can then push down into 3rd and 4th line roles.

With the Devils revamped offense possessing the puck more and the Devils spending less time in their own zone we should see some serious improvement. Hopefully, Andy Greene can perform at the level we all know he can.  Damon Severson takes the next step.  Steven Santini and Mirco Mueller don’t have any growing pains and can be play significant minutes.  John Moore maintains his offensive numbers and is paired with Lovejoy who anchors him defensively forming a really nice 3rd pair.  With the Devils offense and defense taking a significant step forward, Cory Schneider can return to form and the Devils compete for the 8th spot in the East.

Worst Case Scenario

We saw it last year.  Andy Greene and Ben Lovejoy continue to regress.  Damon Severson continues his stellar play, but is unable to take the next step without support.  Mueller and Santini cannot handle their increased roles and are forced to play 3rd pair minutes.  John Moore regresses offensively.  Realistically, I don’t see this happening.  With the additions offensively there should be a lot less pressure on the defense.

So what does it all mean?

The Devils have a ton of question marks coming into 2017-18 defensively, but they can’t perform any poorer than they did last year.  They could potentially have 3 defensemen age 23 and under in their top 6 to start the year and there is the likelihood that the Devils will bring in a veteran on a PTO.  Personally, I like Cody Franson for that role.  Ken Jones took a look at some other options as well.  Signing a veteran like Franson takes some pressure off Santini and Mueller and adds insurance in case of injury or poor performance.