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New Jersey Devils 2016-17 Season Prediction and Projections

By Tyler Kelley|
SUMMERSIDE, PE - SEPTEMBER 25: The New Jersey Devils and the Ottawa Senators salute the crowd at the end of the game during Kraft Hockeyville Canada on September 25, 2017 at Credit Union Place in Summerside, Prince Edward Island, Canada. (Photo by Dave Sandford/NHLI via Getty Images)
SUMMERSIDE, PE - SEPTEMBER 25: The New Jersey Devils and the Ottawa Senators salute the crowd at the end of the game during Kraft Hockeyville Canada on September 25, 2017 at Credit Union Place in Summerside, Prince Edward Island, Canada. (Photo by Dave Sandford/NHLI via Getty Images)

With a new season comes optimism. The New Jersey Devils made some major additions this offseason and look poised to roll out a much-improved roster. The question isn’t whether the Devils improved, but instead how much.

I wrote out projections for what I expect the roster to be not on opening night but 5-10 games into the season.

I expect Brian Boyle to return and anchor the 4th line.

I also wouldn’t be surprised if Jesper Bratt only spent 9 games at the NHL level. If Bratt is sent to London, look for John Quenneville to jump right into the 3rd line left wing role.

With that out of the way we can get into my overall expectations for this team. While we’ve talked about how much the Devils have improved this year I still wouldn’t expect a significant jump in the standings.

To get a baseline, I took a look at Bovada’s over/under total for the Devils this year which is 74.5 points. The Devils had 70 points last year. I fully expect at least 80 points from the New Jersey Devils this year. We’ll go through why throughout here.

Overtime Wins and Losses

Last year the Devils were 3-14 in games that went to overtime. 3. And. 14. That’s miserable. If the Devils simply go .500 in overtime games this year, assuming they play 16 instead of 17, they’ll add 5 more points. That would put the Devils right at 75 points.

Goal Scoring

The Devils have the deepest lineup we’ve seen in a while. Despite Blake Coleman and Brian Gibbons starting the season at the NHL level, this top nine is solid. Adam Henrique, who’s scored at least 20 goals 3 of the last 4 years, is starting at 3rd line center.

My expectation is that in a reduced offensive role on the 3rd line, Henrique’s scoring will certainly drop, but this should help the team defensively. He’s an outstanding two-way player who can be used against opponents top lines defensively. That should free up the top six for minutes against lower level opponents and increase their scoring.

I expect the Devils will score around 217 goals this year. I think I’m still being a little optimistic, but I think somewhere in the 210 goal range is extremely realistic.

If the Devils meet my 217 goal projection that would have put them ahead of Carolina and Ottawa last year and just behind Philadelphia.

Nico Hischier is not Auston Mathews, but a roster overhaul in Toronto took them from 198 goals scored to 251 in one year. I don’t expect that large of a jump, but I do expect some serious improvement.

Goaltending

I’ve written about Cory Schneider and how I expect him to bounce back to this year. Last year the Devils allowed 244 goals, tied for worst in the Eastern Conference.

For comparison sake, in 2015 they allowed 208 and in 2014 they allowed 216. I expect that total will find itself in the 220-230 range this year, so we’ll go with 225 goals against this year.

These numbers equate to 2.65 GF a game and 2.74 GA a game this year. Those aren’t playoff numbers but they’re certainly an improvement.

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What’s it all mean?

My overall expectations are 82 points, 217 goals for, and 225 goals against this year in New Jersey. 82 points would place the Devils somewhere around 13th place in the Eastern Conference and in all likelihood last in the Metropolitan Division again.

Trust the process. The rebuild is ongoing, Even though I don’t see a significant jump in the standings teams, don’t go from winning the lottery to contending in one year. Toronto added Auston Mathews and improved drastically and secured the 8th spot. I don’t expect that, but in 2-3 years this will be a playoff team.

For now? Enjoy the ride. There is a ton of young talent on this team and as we saw throughout the preseason there is a ton of potential up and down this roster.

Hopefully I’m wrong. Hopefully this team takes everyone by surprise and fights for that 8th seed. I just don’t think it’s likely.

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