One of the best early season stories for the New Jersey Devils has been Brian Gibbons, a career minor leaguer who currently leads the team in goals. How long can he sustain this?
Minor league success doesn’t always translate to the NHL. The New Jersey Devils have a few decades worth of goaltending prospects that back this up. Even outside of the Devils system, it doesn’t always work out. Alexandre Giroux, for example, is one of the best AHL players of all time, but couldn’t even keep up with the offensively unstoppable 2010 Washington Capitals.
That said, it’s undeniable that Brian Gibbons is a great early season story. Unfortunately, all the underlying numbers indicate that this is a hot streak due for regression sooner rather than later.
Red Flag Stats
One of the best stats to check for hot streaks is on-ice shooting percentage. To provide some context, season end Sh% in the range for 9-12% tend to be either elite players or lucky players. For a benchmark, reigning MVP Connor McDavid shot 11.44% last season and is a good candidate to repeat.
Gibbons’s on ice shooting percentage is 16.08% the 6th highest in the entire league. For perspective, Auston Matthews is currently shooting 14.69%. Both of those percentages will drop, but Gibbons is not as good at generating offense as Matthews. One will drop harder than the other.
Gibbons also has the third highest PDO in the entire league right now, at 112.89. That’s completely unsustainable, buoyed by his sky high shooting percentage.
It’s hard to pin his success on any specific linemate – of his eight goals, he’s yet to receive a primary assist from the same player twice. This further drives home that his run is percentage driven – he’s not riding a superior player or has any kind of trackable chemistry.
He Still Has Long Term Use
Within the Devils organization alone, there’s precedent for Gibbons – the best example of which is Stephen Gionta.
Gionta was 27 when he got his first call up to the New Jersey Devils in 2010. He became a member of the roster full time during the 2012 playoffs. Gibbons spent last season in Albany before getting called up this year at age 29.
Gibbons and Gionta share a few other traits. Both are undersized (Gionta is 5’7, Gibbons is 5’8). Both had similar minor league scoring capabilities. Gionta made a name for himself with his exceptional fourth line duty during the 2012 Cup run, and while he never was quite that good again, he was a useful bottom six forward for much of his tenure. That’s probably the most realistic destination for Gibbons – a useful third liner who can play with anyone and provide secondary scoring.
Long Term Outlook
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Gibbons right now is one of the team’s best assets. At $650k, he’s the lowest cap hit on the team. He’s on a two way contract, so if he’s not worth a roster spot, they can send him to Binghamton. It’s nearly impossible for him to underperform because he came into this season with no expectations whatsoever.
Even though what he’s doing is completely unsustainable, hockey is a game of hot and cold streaks, and he’s been instrumental in banking some early season points for the team. Just don’t act surprised when he regresses. Also remember that it could happen sooner rather than later. Just keep in mind: long term, Gibbons won’t be able to maintain his pace, but he might become the team’s next Stephen Gionta. There’s value in that. Let’s hope he doesn’t become a David Clarkson, in more ways than one.
All stats are via Corisca, adjusted reflect players who played for 100+ minutes. Accurate as of 11/13/17. Hockey-Reference was used to reference assist credit.